I think Nate Silver craves the horse race..... Makes sense as to why a new poll in a red state destroy's Hillary's odds while a good poll for her raises her chances like 0.1
You'll be able to get a decent idea based on the margin from them, surely?
Yeah, some states where we have doubts will be MUCH clearer once counting begins. For example, if margins in PA, NH, VA are clear then we don't need to wait until they fully report.
NV early looks good but the caveat is that it's only good if 2016 follows 2012 EV patterns. If Dems don't pad their lead these next two days then it looks dicier. Check out Ralston's latest blog.
