[Wonderland]

How do we know 60k is enough for the firewall?

Are we basing it off of 2012?

[HeyMr.DJ]

Well everyone, we're 5 (soon to be 4) days away from this election! Pray no more Hillary oppo drops and pray that something on Trumo does

Even if nothing else does come out on Trump, she's still got this!!

[manwhore]

So the hit job on Hillary wasn't from Russia but an internal FBI /doj agent? What mess am i waking up to?

[HeyMr.DJ]

FiveThirtyEight really is headed towards 50/50

The drop Hillary has had is ridiculous--going from 85% to 65% in less than a week.... come on

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Wonderland

How do we know 60k is enough for the firewall?

Are we basing it off of 2012?

Jon Ralston's word, and he's basically Mr. Nevada. In 2012 Dems ran up a 71k Clark County wall and won the state by 7. So yeah he's basing it in 2012, and right now the 2016 early vote looks a lot like 2012's. Since Clark has something like 60% of the state's voters a huge lead there is really tough to overcome with the rural counties.

Dems are also winning Washoe County (Reno) right now, even though they usually lean GOP early, though I should say that Republicans are closing that gap.

[Benzene]

Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ

FiveThirtyEight really is headed towards 50/50

The drop Hillary has had is ridiculous--going from 85% to 65% in less than a week.... come on

Nate Silver is going to look ridiculous after this election is over.

[manwhore]

Originally posted by imabadkid

You know what, cancel CNN. They've really tried it this election

But they do have a reason to be concerned. Brexit polling showed that the vote to exit was unfavorable and the end result was the contrary. Perched to at least hear what they have to say.

[Wonderland]

Originally posted by Benzene

Jon Ralston's word, and he's basically Mr. Nevada. In 2012 Dems ran up a 71k Clark County wall and won the state by 7. So yeah he's basing it in 2012, and right now the 2016 early vote looks a lot like 2012's. Since Clark has something like 60% of the state's voters a huge lead there is really tough to overcome with the rural counties.

Dems are also winning Washoe County (Reno) right now, even though they usually lean GOP early, though I should say that Republicans are closing that gap.

That's sounds very promising!

Thanks for explaining that Benzene.

[HeyMr.DJ]

Originally posted by Benzene

Nate Silver is going to look ridiculous after this election is over.

I agree. It makes sense though, if Hillary were at 85% all the time, no one would click his links... he needs to shake things up a bit. He's so blatantly here for the horse race, even his model refelects that

[Benzene]

Originally posted by man*****

But they do have a reason to be concerned. Brexit polling showed that the vote to exit was unfavorable and the end result was the contrary. Perched to at least hear what they have to say.

The polls with Brexit were all MoE. More like analysts didn't think it would happen...the numbers never said it was impossible.

I would never take anything for granted....but 538's model is dramatically more reactive than all others. I suppose we'll see who's right in a few days but instinct says that Nate Silver is going to look less than great by comparison.

[Wonderland]

Also you all should have seen the look on my American flatmate's face when I told her about those Virginia polls. She was SHOOK at the fact Trump could win it

She just sent in her ballot a couple of days ago. I really hope she ticked Clinton even though she wanted to do a write in.

[Concrete]

Originally posted by Benzene

Steve Aoki and Bill Clinton in NV today. Only 5k left before hitting the magic 60k Clark firewall with 3 days left of early voting.

I'm hoping for 65k as a buffer thoguh. Just in case

This "tight race" narrative is lowkey helping though. GOTV efforts have been on fire since Comey and Dems are surging to polls in NC and FL

Do we have early voting numbers in NH?

[imabadkid]

It's so weird hearing CNN tell surrogates to make their final arguments to the public.

We're in the final stretch

[Chivas]

Sam Wang (Princeton Election Consortium) has Hillary at a 100% chance of victory under his Bayesian model (98% under random drift). It's crazy how wildly divergent these prediction models are.

[imabadkid]

Republicans saying they're already ready to impeach Legend H. I'm sure that's going to help expand your party and win over new voters

[HeyMr.DJ]

Originally posted by Chivas

Sam Wang (Princeton Election Consortium) has Hillary at a 100% chance of victory under his Bayesian model (98% under random drift). It's crazy how wildly divergent they prediction models are.

And I think his model is 1000000000x more accurate than Nate Clickbait's

I can't wait to see Nate Clickbaits shocked reaction when Hillary wins Florida, North Carolina and Nevada. It'll be so nice

[Chivas]

Originally posted by imabadkid

Republicans saying they're already ready to impeach Legend H. I'm sure that's going to help expand your party and win over new voters

They can try all they want, and the idiots in the House might be able to impeach her, but the Senate would never vote to convict.

[Concrete]

CNN had Clinton up 2 in FL but has been ignoring their poll and going with the average which has it tied

The transparency. It easy to tell which campaign is winning. One is focused on GOTV and raw numbers/raw votes, while the other is obsessing about late polls which are historically unreliable

[Concrete]

Where's Michelle?

[BoyOnBoy Wonder]

All the Nate hate on here is so silly. As he stated in last night's 538 podcast, Hill is down this week, but she's still certainly ahead.