Quote:
Originally posted by LuLuDrops
What's your prognosis so far?
|
Trump will lose Wake, Durham, and Orange counties. The latter two are to be expected since they are disproportionately Democrat.
Interesting that Watagua and Lenoir aren't reporting any results. There was some controversy a few years back when the former's board of elections decided to move the polling place away from AppState's campus. I don't know if Matthew is affecting Lenior's early voting results or not, but if Black turnout is down, then expect Lenoir to be redder than it was in 2012. In the Carolina Strategic Analyses posts from PoliticsNC that I linked a while back, the author mentioned that many of the Eastern NC counties are racially polarized when it comes to federal elections. There are some cases where the county seat or the main city vote differently from the rest of the county. Take Wayne County for example, it's a majority white, vehemently Republican county, but most of the precincts in its count seat (Goldsboro) voted for Obama.
Matthew could also be affecting the Black vote. Bertie, Robeson, and Edgecombe are all majority minority counties that were devastated during Matthew. Cleanup efforts in these areas could prevent people from showing up to the polls.
That being said, I believe Clinton has potential to carry the state with bigger margins than Obama's surprise victory here in '08
There's riots going on outside the school since you know, the debate is happening at an HBCU 
