Girls, I don't want to sound like I'm having a meltdown here. But aren't we being a little overconfident?
I'm starting to feel uncomfortable. We might be entering Brexit territory here. Rn my stomach is in knots over the prospect of the unthinkable happening. I think we're in for a wild ride next week.
Idk how reliable RCP, 538, and 270towin are. But it's just too close for complacency. I feel that the turnout among women, blacks, and Hispanics will be down
significantly, which means a lot of nailbiters across the swing states. As far as Florida is concerned, Obama barely won it last time (and I mean
barely). If overall turnout drops a few points from 2012, the fundamentals are going to favor Trump.
In terms of the electoral models, Romney was never this close in the final weeks. Trump has a 1 in 4 chance in 538's model, which means...
. Obama ended up with a 90% likelihood of winning in 2012 in the same model.
Being a resident of a deeply blue state, I'm fairly certain that my vote is irrelevant to the electoral college. So on Election Night, I think I'm gonna just leave the TV off and stay off the internet. I'll start studying for finals instead.
The early voting data in Florida/Nevada support this, as a significant number of Hispanic voters were ones who were registering for the very first time.