Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 14,321
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John Ralston says by Tuesday almost half the electorate will have voted and that's bad news for GOP from top to bottom if they don't pick up the pace:
The Democrats are ahead right at registration now -- 6 percent statewide. 31,000 votes. Very close to 2012 numbers. The GOP has a half a percent turnout advantage statewide -- it was 1.1 percent by the end of early/mail voting in 2012.
511,000 people have voted. That's 35 percent.
In 2012, 418,000 Nevadans had voted, or about 33 percent.
In 2012, 69 percent of all votes were cast before Election Day -- 61 percent early and 8 percent by mail. Total turnout was 81 percent.
If turnout is 81 percent again, that's just under 1.2 million voters. And that means we are at 43 percent of total turnout already if it's 81 percent again. Let's say it gets as high as 85 percent (seems unlikely), that still means 40 percent-plus is in.
By the end of Tuesday, close to half of all Nevadans who will cast ballots probably will have voted.
That's why these raw ballot leads are so important. There may not be enough votes left by next Tuesday to overcome deficits up and down the ballot, no matter how many Republicans turn out. The GOP, as always, counts on Election Day to bridge the gap in races they have managed to keep close during early/mail voting.
Quick thoughts on legislative races:
In the Senate, the Democrats have substantial ballot leads in all three key districts, ranging from 1,300 in the northern race to more than 2,000 in both the southern races. The Republicans remain optimistic in all three, but these numbers are daunting, especially because, I think, nearly half of the vote is in.
In the Assembly, while the GOP has stanched progress in a couple of districts, I don't see how Brent Jones survives, and the three the leaders are trying to save -- Derek Armstrong, Stephen Silberkraus and David Gardner -- all better be getting substantial crossover and indie votes or they are dead, too.
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