Some of her losses among blacks are being offset by gains among Latinos and college-educated whites. We will have a better picture when early voting is completely finished---a lot of apples to oranges comparisons to 2012 when the early voting schedules aren't completely the same. Though unfortunately GOP suppression tactics seem to have worked for blacks in NC and OH.
Most Latinos in Florida are Cuban-Americans, they tend to be comparatively more republican than say Mexican-Americans. Ohio has very few hispanics. Both states are also pretty low when it comes to the percentage of people who have a college degree (35th and 36th respectively).
please stop giving us 538 updates every second. We can see for ourselves. And yes, at this point in time Romney was predicted to win... We saw how that turned out.
If I only cared about Hillary getting elected, I wouldn't be concerned at all right now. But I want a complete Dem takeover of the Senate in all tossup states and a landslide referendum against Trump.
Eh using 538 projections as is but giving NC and Florida to Trump put her at 279 to 259.
I think I'm reading the chart wrong lol, but if she has 304.7, and she loses both of those states she'd lose a total of 44 and drop to 260.7. He has 232.2 and would gain a total of 44, which would put him at 276.2, right?
I'm pretty sure I'm making no sense lol, but I'm highkey panicking.
I knew black turnout would be low but people (Maxx, mostly) thought I was crazy.
Yikes @ the free fall though. I still think she'll win (Trump isn't getting PA) but it's weird how sensitive the public is to her emails, each time a story comes out her #s plummet.
Most Latinos in Florida are Cuban-Americans, they tend to be comparatively more republican than say Mexican-Americans. Ohio has very few hispanics. Both states are also pretty low when it comes to the percentage of people who have a college degree (35th and 36th respectively).
The black vote being down is probably more to do with Hillary not being Obama.
There are lots of Cubans, but let's be realistic, we know why the Latino vote has surged.
And Hillary was never going to match Obama's black turnout, but OH eliminated golden week and NC slashed Sunday voting in heavily black counties. That's going to impact AA turnout.
The real question is whether or not college educated white voters move to Trump. If they do Trump wins. If they don't, NC will look like an 2008-ish margin for Dems.
Voters are now facing a ******* of media coverage focusing on the emails that probes not Trump's greatest vulnerability but Clinton's — long simmering suspicions about her character, record on transparency and honesty.
I knew black turnout would be low but people (Maxx, mostly) thought I was crazy.
Yikes @ the free fall though. I still think she'll win (Trump isn't getting PA) but it's weird how sensitive the public is to her emails, each time a story comes out her #s plummet.
prediction last one didnt post. hopefully i'm guessing wrong on wisconsin
He's not getting 4 in Maine. Clinton has the first congressional district on lock and pretty much the state too. He'll only get the second congressional district.
And even so, she still wins with NV, PA, and WI...
last one didnt post. hopefully i'm guessing wrong on wisconsin