Mistletoe was released in October. That was dumb.
I think you're missing what I'm saying here.
I'm saying that essentially if all of the stars, planets and Katy's boobs aligned, it has a shot at #1. I'm not saying that if she haphazardly throws it up on iTunes it'll go #1. I'm not delusional.

She'll need.
-- A BOP of a song that
isn't too Christmas-y
-- iTunes, Spotify and amazing music video released same time (midnight at start of tracking week)
-- H&M campaign to take over social media with ads for song on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Insta, Snapchat etc.
-- Radio deal for first week of release
-- Multiple live performances
-- Boost from not having released a new song since 2014
-- Boost from Super Bowl
And with all of that, maybe it can go #1. I don't care if it drops off the charts the next week.

If she actually TRIES she can make it a hit. Most Christmas songs don't get that much promo.