Summary
Despite surprises, there appears more stability in the early vote than volatility. I suspect that most people have made up their minds about the candidates and the media frenzy is another piece of information to be thrown on the heap of what we already know about the candidates. I do not equate sexual assault with mishandling of classified information, but it strikes me that the cognitive task before voters is similar. In both cases, voters have a mountain of evidence already placed before them. One more woman making an accusation against Trump will not change voters’ assessments of the veracity of the totality of the allegations. Similarly, possibly finding new Clinton-related emails - without any further evidence that they are relevant - does not change voters’ assessments of Clinton on this issue.
That said, in North Carolina that stability is starting to point in the Republican direction, while in Ohio the Democrats appear to be making up ground. In these close battleground states and others I expect the early vote to provide a similar signal to the polling, in that we will know that the election is close and will be determined by Election Day voters.
NC blue counties got screwed by not all of them having weekend voting
Let's hope they make it up in the coming week.
