So I've been doing a little analysis, and I think you'll all be intrigued to hear a bit of what I've found.
Last week you heard a lot about Trump narrowing the gap between him and Hillary in polls - in fact, the RPC average showed Trump up by 0.2 points for a day, since they don't count all polls for some reason. HuffPost Pollster shoes it actually only narrowed a bit to a 3 point Clinton lead. But what does the general election look like historically at this point?
In 2008, the race had actually been tighter for most of the way, but for the majority of the month of May, Obama led. Suddenly, at the end of May, it unexpectedly narrowed a lot, according to the still-accessible
RPC average - Obama led by less than a percentage point. Additionally, and perhaps more surprisingly, McCain's latest surge in polling was actually as late as September, when he led Obama for about two weeks. Obama ultimately won by 7.2 points, the first Democrat to get a majority since 1964.
In 2012, the race was a lot more like this one - the Democrat consistently led, in this case again being Obama obviously. But yet again, in the middle of May - a little earlier this time - the
RPC average shows a sudden, seemingly unexpected spike from the Republican candidate. Additionally, Romney proved to be a much tougher challenger than McCain; again in September there was a quick tightening, but Romney actually led Obama three times in October and as late as November 1st. But again Obama won - this time by 3.9 points.
No matter what the circumstances, May has been the month where the frontrunner and the challenger suddenly see a tightening race, for a myriad of reasons but also likely for its timing. It has happened in both of the previous Democrat-won elections.
What's different about this time? We now have a more inclusive and clear
HuffPost Pollster to analyze, and it gives us some surprising information. The tightest point for a Hillary-Trump battle was August last year when she led by just 0.4 points. The mid-May tightening to a 2.7 point Clinton lead is actually only the
seventh closest tightening that has been seen for this match-up! Additionally, although the RCP average disagrees, she is the only Democrat to never lead by less than a point during the month of May - she has led by 2.7 points to 16.4 points at all times this month according to HuffPost.
What say you all to this? Why has Hillary seemingly survived the May race tightening more effectively than Obama has in his past two elections? Why hasn't it been as close, despite Hillary still fighting for her nomination and Donald consolidating GOP support?
Is this an indication she's actually in a stronger position against Donald right now than Obama was against the other two at the same time?
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What a fraud.
