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Originally posted by Bey Admired
Do we even know the US viewing statistics specifically? My guess is the difference between the two really isn't that significant when it comes down to just the US figures. Just a hunch though.
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Previously, though, Adele held a large lead in video streams, which has been one of her strongest metrics throughout her reign so far.
Doing a couple of quick calculations, 29.2% of Sorry's Spotify streams are originating from the US, and 27.6% of Hello's streams are coming from here. Thus, it seems to be a reasonable assumption that the percentages of YT streams coming from the US are also close (though Hello is probably a bit more global). So if Sorry can pull ahead on global YT views, it'll likely be pulling ahead on US views as well.
Let's do some hypotheticals. Hello recorded 65.9 million global YT views this week (losing 24% from last week), while Sorry pulled in 57.6M (gaining 9%). If the same increases and decreases occur this week, Hello will have 50.1M next week and Sorry 62.8M - which would give Justin a video streaming advantage, likely one of around 2 million (that figure comes from dividing his global advantage by 6, assuming approximately 15-20% of the YT streams for both songs are coming for the US - YT streams are known to be much more global than Spotify's, and as stated earlier it's reasonable to think that the percentages will be similar due to those Spotify number - though Sorry's advantage could be larger due to Hello's YT streams being more global). If Sorry can close the airplay gap (which it should be able to do, seeing that it still has room to grow on both HAC and rhythmic, while Hello has already peaked on the former) as well as the sales gap (which it has already begun to do), it will be able to take the #1 spot.
Even if Hello only decreases by half as much as it did this week (that would be 12%) and Sorry only gains by half as much (4.5%), the global YT views chart will look like this:
Hello 58.0M
Sorry 55.0M
So Hello will probably only have a US streaming advantage of around half a million (or perhaps even less considering that its YT streams are fairly likely to be more global than Sorry's), setting the stage for Sorry to close the gap the next week.
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