FALL RELEASES BEGIN Q4 ROLLOUT
Taylor Swift’s Red Leads the Way, With One Direction, Mumford & Sons, P!nk Also Strong
September 21, 2012
Big Machine country-pop crossover queen Taylor Swift’s Red is poised for the best first week of the year when it drops on Oct. 22, with a rare million-selling bow in reach.
The deluge of initial preorders for One Direction’s Take Me Home, the sophomore album from the Syco/Columbia boy band is slated for Nov. 13, giving the release the look of a commercial giant, with most expecting a first week north of 500k. That will give it a good shot at being the year’s second biggest debut.
In the following grid of high-profile releases for the rest of 2012, beginning with the four albums that hit last Tuesday—RCA’s P!nk, Def Jam/IDJ’s Kanye West G.O.O.D. Music compilation, Island/IDJ’s The Killers and 604/Schoolboy/ Interscope’s Carly Rae Jepsen—we’ve eliminated the second or third singles that are just getting started from each. Christina Aguilera’s RCA album Lotus and One Direction’s Take Me Home, both slated for Nov. 13, aren’t included because their initial singles are just hitting radio.
Four debuting acts—Republic’s Alex Clare and Of Monsters and Men, along with Dualtone’s Lumineers and Def Jam/IDJ’s Frank Ocean—have separated themselves from the pack, and although all are primarily album artists, each has also yielded a strong-performing single.
The Lumineers are one of four noteworthy new and developing acts whose debut albums and singles are tracked below. Mumford & Sons’ Babel and its setup single “I Will Wait” are among the autumn album releases also listed, along with their singles and label-derived first-week sales projections. As the comparative performance chart indicates, these singles range from disappointing in the cases of Green Day (#3 Alt, #29 Hot AC) and No Doubt (#17 Alt, #18 Pop)—with second singles just serviced on both—to spectacular for Swift and Carly Rae Jepsen.
Other acts tracked include Syco/Epic’s Cher Lloyd, Warner Bros.’ Muse and YG/Schoolboy/Republic South Korean viral sensation PSY.
SELECTED NEW & DEVELOPING ALBUMS W/SINGLES
ARTIST
ALBUM/SINGLE
LABEL
LP FORECAST
CUME
SINGLE SALES
AUDIENCE
ALEX CLARE
LATENESS OF THE HOUR
REPUBLIC
95k
TOO CLOSE
1.5m
447.9m
OF MONSTERS AND MEN
MY HEAD IS AN ANIMAL
REPUBLIC
365k
LITTLE TALKS
870k
288.9m
LUMINEERS
THE LUMINEERS
DUALTONE
295k
HO HEY
750k
152.1m
FRANK OCEAN
CHANNEL ORANGE
DEF JAM/IDJ
310k
THINKIN BOUT YOU
380k
129.7m
SELECTED FALL ALBUMS W/SINGLES
ARTIST
ALBUM/SINGLE
LABEL
LP FORECAST
CUME
SINGLE SALES
AUDIENCE
G.O.O.D. MUSIC
CRUEL SUMMER
GM/DEF JAM/IDJ
200k
MERCY
1.8m
1.07b
CARLY RAE JEPSEN
KISS
SCHOOLBOY/INTERSCOPE
75k
CALL ME MAYBE
5.7m
2.4b
GOOD TIME (W/OWL CITY)
1.4m
587.3m
KILLERS
BATTLE BORN
ISLAND/IDJ
125k
RUNAWAYS
160k
65.8m
PINK
THE TRUTH ABOUT LOVE RCA
175k
BLOW ME (ONE LAST KISS)
1.2m
892.5m
GREEN DAY
¡UNO!
REPRISE
175k
OH LOVE
95k
147.8m
MUMFORD & SONS
BABEL
GLASSNOTE
400k
I WILL WAIT
430k
62.2m
NO DOUBT
PUSH & SHOVE
INTERSCOPE
125k
SETTLE DOWN
280k
273.4m
CHER LLOYD
STICKS & STONES
SYCO/EPIC
65k
WANT U BACK
1.4m
539.2m
MUSE
2ND LAW
WARNER BROS.
150k
MADNESS
95k
43.1m
TAYLOR SWIFT
RED
BIG MACHINE
900k
WE ARE NEVER...
1.7m
529.8m
PSY
TBD
YG/SCHOOLBOY/REPUBLIC
TBD
GANGNAM STYLE
400k
33.1m
http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/...i?news09129m01