Cannot know for sure without hearing the song, but since Rihanna has her name in it and if it's a good song, then Shakira will finally score her top 10 or 40 single at worst again.
I voted 1#. But idk I kinda have the feeling it could start huge because of their starpower and then be another Work B*tch (not talking about sales - I mean a song that was overhyped and everyone believed it would obliterate and just performs ok). But at the same time Shakira deserves to be the it girl of 2014 and slay U.S again.