Honestly, I think Closer could beat the record.
I thought Starboy could dethrone it, but it already has a video and an almost 100 million radio audience, yet it's still far behind on YouTube (even though all Closer has is a lyric video), slightly behind on Spotify, and far behind in sales.
24K Magic isn't doing so great at the moment, and even if it does end up smashing, it'll take a long time until it can build up the radio audience and challenge Closer.
Who would've thought Halsey would be the one to break Mariah's record.