| |
Discussion: U.S. Election 2016
ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
|
Assuming that simple media attention and the tactics that won a primary - with 11.7 million votes to Hillary's more than 13 million and counting - will win the general is a massive oversimplification.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
|
Y'all are just as bad as the media when it comes to not realizing the game has changed. 
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
|
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 2,382
|
Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
Hispanics HATE Trump. Blacks hate him even more. He has a bad, but not ruined, relationship with women.
If Hillary galvanizes her own party and a percentage of Independents he has pushed away, she'll win. It shouldn't be hard. People actually take Trump as a threat, but I don't, and this media talk isn't convincing me.
|
This.
Maybe I'm being optimistic but I still think the majority of America think Trump is a joke and won't vote for him. Even if they hate Hillary they'll still vote for her over Trump
Plus if Romney does end up running as a third party, that will just make it Hillary's victory even more possible 
|
|
|
|
Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Y'all are just as bad as the media when it comes to not realizing the game has changed. |
So then how should we look at this, Oh Enlightened One? Just say "**** polls, demographics & state electorate. Trump WILL WIN. I mean, he's always in the news!"?
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
|
I think in another world where Trump calms down and treats women with more respect he could improve his numbers a bit. Especially among married Republican and Independent women. It's not happening tho.
|
|
|
|
ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Y'all are just as bad as the media when it comes to not realizing the game has changed. |
... or we recognize that the game hasn't changed as much as a portion of the media is saying. There's an undercurrent in politically oriented media trying to push the notion that Trump is going to win, and they are consistently at odds with several very reliable indicators. They grasp at straws. Their ultimate argument is that his offensive tactics caused the media to fixate on him which in turn raised support - they fail to realize that the media's portrayal of him doesn't line up at all with why supporters say they will support him and they fail to realize that in the GOP primary, this all aligned with polling and other indicators. In the general so far, it has failed to match up to polling (where Clinton remains ahead on average despite being at a low point thanks to Sanders) and demographic expectations.
The game may have changed, but not enough for President Trump.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
|
The game has changed - minorities are rising percentage wise faster than ever before, the Hispanic vote is more vital than ever. More than just white people matter. Trump's playing it at an angle that that's all he needs to win - and right now, he's barely leading among white women. African Americans despise him. Hispanics despise him. Women hate him. Yes, it seems Hillary has been adjusting herself to this changing electorate better than ever.
|
|
|
|
Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
|
So even if we're SUPER generous to Trump on the map, just leaving Hillary the North East, Northern Midwest, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and the West Coast, he'll need at least five more delegates. And where can he get them? The highly hispanic New Mexico or Ohio? Or the super liberal Washington & Oregon? Pennsylvania with it's high minority population?
Numbers & demographics. These things matter.
|
|
|
|
Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
|
Trump won 40% of the Republican primary. That's not even half and it's far different than being able to win an entire Presidential election. Are we forgetting that in many exit polls, Republican voters said they were voting specifically to "stop Trump"? His rise has been intriguing but exacerbated. We have to look at more than the fact that he's "winning". Winning by what percent? Winning with who? These things are important .
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
|
Rather 2016 or 2020 goes to Trump or Hillary or someone else, the Republicans are in big trouble if they don't start changing their policies.
Statistics show that minorities will be the majority of this country and when you alienate them like they are doing, that's bad. Also women vote more than men so they have a gender problem as well.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Y'all are just as bad as the media when it comes to not realizing the game has changed. |
Lmfao I agree.
People in this thread are acting just as clueless as Jeb Bush circa 2015. The avg American voter is not that smart, and Trump is playing white people like a fiddle. You don't have to be a political scientist to see that. The media has already normalized him.
Hispanic votes also don't matter that much, he can win without them.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Damien M
Lmfao I agree.
People in this thread are acting just as clueless as Jeb Bush circa 2015. The avg American voter is not that smart, and Trump is playing white people like a fiddle. You don't have to be a political scientist to see that. The media has already normalized him.
Hispanic votes also don't matter that much, he can win without them.
|
Hispanic+black+women >>>> white male vote.
They do matter especially for Hillary because she will have her blue states again. That means she only needs one or two of the swing states. For Trump or a Republican to win the map, they need to galvanize a much larger percentage of one group. Do you honestly think Americans want Trump more than McCain and Romney?
I don't think some of you get the power of the Democrats and minority vote, and this condescending tone that minorities don't matter IRRITATES me as a black male. It's not just Trump supporters. Bernie and his supporters had that same tone this whole primary.
|
|
|
|
ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Damien M
Lmfao I agree.
People in this thread are acting just as clueless as Jeb Bush circa 2015. The avg American voter is not that smart, and Trump is playing white people like a fiddle. You don't have to be a political scientist to see that. The media has already normalized him.
Hispanic votes also don't matter that much, he can win without them.
|
No. This isn't a thing. His poll numbers with white voters don't suggest he's playing anyone like a fiddle. Hispanic voters are increasing faster than any other group and statistically hate Trump more than any candidate ever. The media vilifies him daily.
Why can't either of you point to facts and numbers rather than nebulous, dismissive, kinda rude "lol you'll see" or "you're just as clueless as Jeb Bush" comments? Why can't you cite statistics that support your claims?
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
|
Not Jeb tho! We've established his father and brother were horrible presidents with the most recent one ending his presidency in the 30s approval rating. People keep forgetting Obama is 50-55 right now, and will probably go up when the realization starts to sink in that he's leaving office for good.
Hillary has her personal issues, and so does Trump. But what Hillary does not have to worry about is the ideology of Americans. Yeah most of the average voter is not educated and care about all the facts, but the country is growing more and more liberal. It may not be as relevant in 2016 (which I suspect it is), but come 2020, 2024, 2028. It will definitely be, and that is something Trump, his supporters, and Republicans should be even more scared of than anything.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
|
Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
Hispanic+black+women >>>> white male vote.
They do matter especially for Hillary because she will have her blue states again. That means she only needs one or two of the swing states. For Trump or a Republican to win the map, they need to galvanize a much larger percentage of one group. Do you honestly think Americans want Trump more than McCain and Romney?
I don't think some of you get the power of the Democrats and minority vote, and this condescending tone that minorities don't matter IRRITATES me as a black male. It's not just Trump supporters. Bernie and his supporters had that same tone this whole primary.
|
Republican women will fall in line just like everyone else in that party, lol.
They're running neck-and-neck in polls right now, too.
Hillary is not that popular either, don't be fooled. Her unfavorables are almost as high as Trump's (and he's a crazy racist, what's her excuse? Not Bernie, bc they've been sky high since last year)
Death @ the dramatics, I'm black too. Hispanic votes don't matter that much bc they're concentrated in a bunch of non competitive states. Winning California by a millions and millions makes 0 difference to the map.
Arizona at most.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
No. This isn't a thing. His poll numbers with white voters don't suggest he's playing anyone like a fiddle. Hispanic voters are increasing faster than any other group and statistically hate Trump more than any candidate ever. The media vilifies him daily.
Why can't either of you point to facts and numbers rather than nebulous, dismissive, kinda rude "lol you'll see" or "you're just as clueless as Jeb Bush" comments? Why can't you cite statistics that support your claims?
|
Facts and numbers = they're tied/he's closed the gap in almost all the polls released last week (which everyone in this thread dismissed like the echo chamber it's becoming)
Hillary Clinton is not this universally loved figure. The fact that she's polling this close to a racist idiot should concern anyone.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
|
Unfavorables are cute and all in the primaries, but in the general election it has a whole other affect. And we need to realize the difference in these numbers. Hillary has a trustworthy and enthusiasm problem. Trump, on the other hand, is unfavorable because he has no plans and resorts to personal attacks. When it comes down to it, Trump is far more dangerous than Hillary and that is why he has a bigger problem to fill.
Your point is that these groups will fall in line with their party. EXACTLY. We're on the same page now. A united Democratic Party wins over a united Republican Party. That is what we're getting at.
Quote:
Originally posted by Damien M
Facts and numbers = they're tied/he's closed the gap in almost all the polls released last week (which everyone in this thread dismissed like the echo chamber it's becoming)
Hillary Clinton is not this universally loved figure. The fact that she's polling this close to a racist idiot should concern anyone.
|
Polls mean nothing right now, and they are questionable all the way through I would suspect.
I bet all in the world his numbers go down after Dems unify and Obama/Biden campaigns, and the debates happen. You going by a few questionable polls in May is laughable.
Obama (a then sitting president w/ no primary opposition) was losing to Romney in 2012 at this exact point in the race. He also lost the final predictions poll a week b4 the election as well.  The popular vote ended up fairly close yet Obama obliterated him in the electoral college because majority of the map favors Democrats. HRC or not.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
|
Tight Clinton-Trump polls have skeptics: pollsters
Quote:
|
In separate interviews, the pollsters who conducted those surveys cautioned that much of the tightening in the race comes from Trump consolidating the Republican vote. Meanwhile, Clinton remains in a contentious primary battle with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
|
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
|
Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
Polls mean nothing right now, and they are questionable all the way through I would suspect.
I bet all in the world his numbers go down after Dems unify and Obama/Biden campaigns, and the debates happen. You going by a few questionable polls in May is laughable.
Obama (a then sitting president w/ no primary opposition) was losing to Romney in 2012 at this exact point in the race. He also lost the final predictions poll a week b4 the election as well. The popular vote ended up fairly close yet Obama obliterated him in the electoral college because majority of the map favors Democrats. HRC or not. |
Hillary isn't Obama though. Not even close.
Obama was a super campaigner, and he could read the mood of the electorate like no other. Hillary says stuff like "I'm going to put coal miners out of business" and then loses entire states
Also, "polls mean nothing right now" is such a Republican circa Sept 2015 thing to say. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
