[Save-Me-Oprah]

20 weeks for Royals in the top 10.

4 months 21 days 7 hours 57 minutes 37 seconds

[alexanderao]

Originally posted by Element

I put together an Excel sheet with Kworb's sales/radio estimates for this week so far. As you can see, the 9-13 range will be really difficult to predict this week. Basically, the top 8 are locked in. Numbers 9 and 10 are open for multiple competitors this week:

Burn
Talk Dirty
Royals
Story of My Life
Drunk In Love

All of them are so close that streaming will have a big difference in the equation, which means Burn may get blocked at #11 by Royals and DIL. Talk Dirty's streaming doesn't appear high enough to crack the top ten. If Royals falls out of the top ten, that would help Burn a lot. Also, it would be nice if DIL's streaming was a little more tame this week. Does anyone know the general weighting of the Hot 100 formula?

Did you make sure to count HAC, alternative, urban radios and not just pop?

Right now, the Spotify charts look like this (bolded songs are guaranteed top 10's next week):

1. Dark Horse
2. Say Something
3. Timber
4. Counting Stars
5. Royals
6. Pompeii
7. Team
8. The Monster
9. Let Her Go
10. Drunk In Love
11. Wake Me Up
12. Burn
13. Sweater Weather
14. Let It Go
15. Hold On, We're Going Home
16. Demons
17. Story Of My Life
18. Talk Dirty
19. Roar
20. Radioactive ()

[Tylerbv]

Wait Let it Go is #14 on spotify? That's huge
Burn's above Story of My Life in every aspect I think, so she should be moving ahead of 1D this week.
Drunk in Love/Talk Dirty are coming though

For next week I predict:
1. Dark Horse
2. Timber
3. Say Something
4. Counting Stars
5. The Monster
6. Team
7. Pompeii
8. Let Her Go
9. Royals
10. Burn

11. Talk Dirty
12. Drunk in Love

The Man #13-15
Happy #16-19

Burn will probably miss #10 and be passed by TD though

[alexanderao]

Originally posted by Tylerbv

Wait Let it Go is #14 on spotify? That's huge
Burn's above Story of My Life in every aspect I think, so she should be moving ahead of 1D this week.
Drunk in Love/Talk Dirty are coming though

For next week I predict:
1. Dark Horse
2. Timber
3. Say Something
4. Counting Stars
5. The Monster
6. Team
7. Pompeii
8. Let Her Go
9. Royals
10. Burn

11. Talk Dirty
12. Drunk in Love

The Man #13-15
Happy #16-19

Burn will probably miss #10 and be passed by TD though

I don't think Pompeii will move up 3 spots like that. It's not ahead of Let Her Go or Royals on radio and behind Royals on Spotify.

[alexanderao]

Saturday Predictions:

1. Dark Horse
2. Timber
3. Say Something
4. Counting Stars
5. The Monster
6. Team
7. Let Her Go
8. Royals
9. Pompeii
10. Talk Dirty/Drunk In Love

The only problem for Talk Dirty is that it is nowhere near the top 10 on radio (though it is miles closer than The Man and Happy). If Talk Dirty can at least position itself near the top 10 on streaming it will probably go top 10, but it is running out of time as the streaming tracking week ends tomorrow.

I think Drunk In Love will be a dark horse candidate for the top 10 next week if its airplay keeps rising and it holds down that #10 spot on streaming. It is #4 on Rhythmic radio, #1 on Urban radio, #97 on Pop radio, and #30 on Urban AC radio. However, it is #23 on iTunes. We'll have to see.

It's going to be hard for SOML to snatch another week in the top 10. Despite being at #6 on Pop radio and #7 on HAC radio, it hasn't crossed over anywhere else. It is at #13 on iTunes and falling fast on streaming.

Overall, my predictions for songs' chances at the #10 spot:

46% Talk Dirty
20% Drunk In Love
15% Burn
10% Story Of My Life
5% The Man
3% Royals
1% Let Her Go

[umich]

Depending on how much DIL sells tomorrow night, it could get into the top ten as early as next week.

[Slayonce]

Originally posted by umichgrad07

Depending on how much DIL sells tomorrow night, it could get into the top ten as early as next week.

I hope you're right. If she opens the show with Drunk In Love do you think that she's going to have enough sales boost to land in the Top10?

[Element]

Originally posted by alexanderao

Did you make sure to count HAC, alternative, urban radios and not just pop?

Right now, the Spotify charts look like this (bolded songs are guaranteed top 10's next week):

1. Dark Horse
2. Say Something
3. Timber
4. Counting Stars
5. Royals
6. Pompeii
7. Team
8. The Monster
9. Let Her Go
10. Drunk In Love
11. Wake Me Up
12. Burn
13. Sweater Weather
14. Let It Go
15. Hold On, We're Going Home
16. Demons
17. Story Of My Life
18. Talk Dirty
19. Roar
20. Radioactive ()

Yes, I used the overall AI numbers!

[umich]

Originally posted by Slayonce

I hope you're right. If she opens the show with Drunk In Love do you think that she's going to have enough sales boost to land in the Top10?

She will get a nice bump in the last few hours of the evening that will count toward next week's Hot 100, but the full effect will be much more noticeable throughout the days following the awards.

Since she's opening, she will have a "head start" on sales, so it's a possibility.

[Element]

Does anyone know the approximate Hot 100 formula? Thanks!

[alexanderao]

Originally posted by Element

Does anyone know the approximate Hot 100 formula? Thanks!

They change it all the time and keep the exact formula secret, but some members have tried to recreate it in the past.

[Tylerbv]

Originally posted by alexanderao

I don't think Pompeii will move up 3 spots like that. It's not ahead of Let Her Go or Royals on radio and behind Royals on Spotify.

You're probably right. Royals is holding up better than I thought it was

[Slayonce]

Originally posted by umichgrad07

She will get a nice bump in the last few hours of the evening that will count toward next week's Hot 100, but the full effect will be much more noticeable throughout the days following the awards.

Since she's opening, she will have a "head start" on sales, so it's a possibility.

I hope you're right

[Ger-55]

Originally posted by Element

Does anyone know the approximate Hot 100 formula? Thanks!

No tbh Every member uses different formula

[alexanderao]

The Monster is falling fast on iTunes. It is down to #13.

[Tekken_Guy]

The Monster will be out of the top 10 quickly at this rate. Expect "Talk Dirty," "Happy," "The Man," and "Midnight Memories" to go top 10 in the next few weeks.

[alexanderao]

Originally posted by Tekken_Guy

The Monster will be out of the top 10 quickly at this rate. Expect "Talk Dirty," "Happy," "The Man," and "Midnight Memories" to go top 10 in the next few weeks.

Is Midnight Memories the next single? When is its radio adds date?

The Monster is still very strong on radio though. #3 on pop radio, #1 on rhytmhic, #51 and climbing on HAC, and #19 on urban. For the next few weeks, radio and streaming will keep The Monster in the top 10 with radio doing much of the heavy lifting.

[alexanderao]

It will be interesting to see how far down CRTFY falls next week. Currently, it is out of the top 100 on iTunes, out of the top 50 on Spotify, and #41 on pop radio.

I predict somewhere in the 50-65 range.

[Ulrihs]

Originally posted by alexanderao

It will be interesting to see how far down CRTFY falls next week. Currently, it is out of the top 100 on iTunes, out of the top 50 on Spotify, and #41 on pop radio.

I predict somewhere in the 50-65 range.

I'd say that is too optimistic prediction. I think 80's is best that this song could get next week, with it's underwhelming performance.

[DayFusion]

Team and Royals.