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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 14,321
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Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 6m6 minutes ago
Reuters/Ipsos Polls:
#Ohio:
Trump 43% (+1) 
Clinton 42%
#Arizona
Trump 45 (+6)
Clinton 39 - Coming for that wig 
#Georgia
Trump 50 (+8)
Clinton 42 - Perched.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 3,933
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Quote:
Originally posted by KatyLegendperry
Kasich jumping ship when he's the only remotely reasonable Republican who ran last year ahhh
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I think he's for a pathway to citizenship iirc. I still wouldn't vote for him but that's a big plus for a republican in my eyes.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 28,773
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
3 of his supporters were just caught plotting to blow up Muslims...
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Newton's third law
I predicted a rise of Christian crusades-like terrorism.
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Member Since: 5/14/2011
Posts: 5,486
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Quote:
Originally posted by Istan4R
So I was a trump supporter but after taking poli Sci classes (my major) and these recent events i'll be casting my vote for Hillary.
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Glad you snapped out of it
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 43,104
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Quote:
Originally posted by LuLuDrops
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 6m6 minutes ago
Reuters/Ipsos Polls:
#Ohio:
Trump 43% (+1)
Clinton 42%
#Arizona
Trump 45 (+6)
Clinton 39 - Coming for that wig
#Georgia
Trump 50 (+8)
Clinton 42 - Perched. |
Ugh I want Hillary to snatch them all
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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This sane GOP y'all want ain't happening soon. They were already dealing with the far-right Tea Party. Now Trump has completely brought the alt-right into the equation.
That base will continue to put candidates like Ted Cruz and Trump forward. The days of Reagan and Bush are over.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 3,933
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Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
This sane GOP y'all want ain't happening soon. They were already dealing with the far-right Tea Party. Now Trump has completely brought the alt-right into the equation.
That base will continue to put candidates like Ted Cruz and Trump forward. The days of Reagan and Bush are over.
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The way we demonized Bush, McCain (before Palin), and Romney.....if we only knew the future of the party.
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Member Since: 1/4/2012
Posts: 7,329
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2010
Posts: 7,796
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Member Since: 10/2/2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
This sane GOP y'all want ain't happening soon. They were already dealing with the far-right Tea Party. Now Trump has completely brought the alt-right into the equation.
That base will continue to put candidates like Ted Cruz and Trump forward. The days of Reagan and Bush are over.
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And that's the lesson everyone needs to take from this.
Even if Trump loses, his legacy will last for decades. The damage has been done.
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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Quote:
Originally posted by D_Man3379
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I wouldn't necessarily trust Reuters. She could be up or she could be down. Ohio and Iowa will be the closest races no matter what.
Quote:
Originally posted by Saskia
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It's about the trend. Their last poll had her up only 2 points. (46-44) It's now 47-43
ABC polling has always been a bit more conservative than the CNN/NBC polls. Hell let's not forget FOX has her up by 7 points. This is important as well because we know 3rd party votes will decline come election day.
Quote:
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In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads Trump by 50-46*percent among likely voters and by 50-44*percent among registered voters.
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 7,628
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I don't think enough people noticed the fact that Hillary polled only -4 from trump in TEXAS, and that's within the margin of error. Which means Texas, hypothetically, is within the realm of possibility.  I'm sure the chances are slim to none, but the fact that the chances even exist are remarkable.
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 3,624
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Quote:
Originally posted by Saskia
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Wow, I'm surprised she isn't leading by more 
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 3,624
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How credible is that ABC news poll? There's no way he could have closed the gap that quickly 
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by WeFoundTrouble
I don't think enough people noticed the fact that Hillary polled only -4 from trump in TEXAS, and that's within the margin of error. Which means Texas, hypothetically, is within the realm of possibility. I'm sure the chances are slim to none, but the fact that the chances even exist are remarkable. |
538 gives Texas flipping a higher chance than Pennsylvania flipping, yet the pundits keep talking about Trump taking Pennsylvania. 
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2010
Posts: 7,796
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Quote:
Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ
How credible is that ABC news poll? There's no way he could have closed the gap that quickly |
Here's what someone on reddit said
Quote:
National polls really don't matter that much, Trump can't win the presidency as long as PA (Clinton up by 7.5%), Colorado (Clinton up 7.5%), Virginia (Clinton up 7%) and NH (Clinton up by 4%) go blue. Trump isn't making up a 7% difference this late in the game, so Clinton needs to win 1 state of NH, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio or Iowa to win the election. Realistically, she's going to win at least 5 of those 7.
Realistically speaking, about 5 million Clinton voters nationwide would need to change their vote to 3rd party (or 2.5 million voters switching to Trump) for Trump to win the election, that would give him all of Nevada (Clinton up 1.4%), Arizona (Trump up 1%), Iowa (Trump up 3.7%), Indiana (Trump up 4.5%), Ohio (Clinton up 1.6%), North Carolina (Clinton up 2.9%), Florida (Clinton up 2.7%) and New Hampshire (Clinton up 3.6%). That puts him at like 272 EC votes.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 9/3/2012
Posts: 29,405
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When is the next debate
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 3,624
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Quote:
Originally posted by Save-Me-Oprah
When is the next debate
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Wednesday. It will be....... Interesting to say the least
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 11,012
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The thing is, they sample such a low amount that you can't really get a consistent perspective. Isn't it around 2,000 people? Like seriously, there are millions voting.
These polls also don't really get a representative sample. They generally don't represent the Hispanic and African American vote very well, and those two demographics are going to play a huge part in this election.
However, consider this. I reckon a lot more people support Trump than these polls represent. I think a lot of people secretly support him, but don't want to say it publicly. I'm afraid that many are going to secretly vote for Trump in the booth. This fear is only amplified by the fact that the very same happened with Brexit. Polls consistently showed that people were going to vote to stay in the EU, even the betting odds showed massive confidence that we would stay, and then look what happened.
I take all these polls with a grain of salt. Fine, if you believe she's going to win, that's great and I genuinely appreciate your optimism. If you believe the polls, I totally understand and can see why you would. The polls have generally been correct in past elections - but this isn't a normal election. There is an anti-establishment uprising. Many women, particularly independents, who feel ashamed to say they support Trump publicly will vote for him secretly, just know that.
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 7,628
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ramcoro
538 gives Texas flipping a higher chance than Pennsylvania flipping, yet the pundits keep talking about Trump taking Pennsylvania. |
If Hillary takes Texas it is GAME. OVER.
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