I think people underestimate how much momentum matters. How many times has a 4th or 5th single smashed coming off decreasing single longevity? Do you guys honestly think TOTGA would have peaked as high as it did without the ridiculous era it came off of? Still a fine song but it's the best example I can come up with right now.
Not to mention MTN and DITD aren't similar enough to say they would perform the same. Can somebody explain to me what's so similar about them?
It would have peaked in the t5 for sure, probably higher if released early.
Dance in the Dark was released as the 4th official single in Australia and it got to #24. That was without a music video though.
So I think DITD could've got to something like maybe #15 in the Hot 100. The general public don't like that sort of music (as we saw with Marry the Night, which Lady Gaga herself has said she based on DITD).
I think it would of flopped. The production is messy and all distorted. It's not that catchy either. In fact, it's one of my least favourite tracks from Gaga. I'm actually surprised to see the positive reaction it's received by posters. But still, I don't think it would've done well.