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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (June 24-July 1, 2015)
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
Updated predictions
1. See You Again
2. Bad Blood
3. Cheerleader
4. Trap Queen
5. Shut Up And Dance
6. Can't Feel My Face
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae)
8. Uptown Funk!
9. Hey Mama
10. Honey, I'm Good.
11. Good For You
12. Earned It
13. Fight Song
14. Want To Want Me
15. Lean On
16. Worth It
17. Where Are U Now
18. You Know You Like It
19. Sugar
20. Talking Body
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I'm about to do mine as well. Selena is now down to #3 at 0.7516, still dark red, so I feel pretty confident about keeping her out of the Top 10. I'm going with 158k. UF is still Dark Green, so I'm going with 63k for that song, and 10.1 million streams. I'm going with 93 million impressions for HM. I'm going to see how those changes affect Ger's numbers.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Third Set Predictions for Hot 100 Previewed Wednesday/Published Thursday
Bold = Bullet; AG = Airplay Gainer; DG = Digital Gainer; SG = Streaming Gainer, HSD = Hot Shot Debut
1) See You Again = /W 11 # 1;W 13 T10
2) Bad Blood = /1 W #1;W 6 T10 (last chance at # 1 the week after this+
3) Cheerleader +1 SG/W 3 T10
4) Trap Queen -1/3 W #2;W 16 T10
5) Can't Feel My Face +7 (AG + DG)/W 1 T10
6) Shut Up And Dance -1/W 12 T 10
7) Watch Me +4/W 1 T10
8) Uptown Funk -2/14 W #1; W 31 T10
9) Hey Mama -1/W 6 T10
10) Honey I'm Good -1/W 4 T10
11) Good For You *NEW* HSD
12) Want To Want Me -5/ 9 W T10
13) Fight Song =
14) Earned It -4/3 W # 3;16 W T10
15) Worth It -1
16) Lean On +1
17) Where Are You Now -2
18) Talking Body -2
19) You Know You Like It -1
20) Sugar -1/4 W #2; 21 W T10
21) The Hills +1
22) Thinking Out Loud -2/8 W #2/23 W T10
23) This Summer Is Going To Hurt +2
24) Girl Crush +3
25) Post To Be -4
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Member Since: 12/22/2011
Posts: 55,626
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
Third Set Predictions for Hot 100 Previewed Wednesday/Published Thursday
Bold = Bullet; AG = Airplay Gainer; DG = Digital Gainer; SG = Streaming Gainer, HSD = Hot Shot Debut
1) See You Again = /W 11 # 1;W 13 T10
Alright let's get another #1 in here. i was joking when I said it would be funny if See you again ha One sweet day inspiration were to break One Sweet day's record.
2) Bad Blood = /1 W #1;W 6 T10 (last chance at # 1 the week after this+
3) Cheerleader +1 SG/W 3 T10
My hope is that her inclusion of her stuff on Apple music will give her that 2nd week.
4) Trap Queen -1/3 W #2;W 16 T10
Longevity for this is so amazing.
5) Can't Feel My Face +7 (AG + DG)/W 1 T10
Ready for this to become a top 3 mainstay.
15) Worth It -1
Deserves top 10
16) Lean On +1
Hopefully a top 10 mainstay in the summer
17) Where Are You Now -2
Same as Lean on
20) Sugar -1/4 W #2; 21 W T10
the fact that this stayed top 10 long enough to tie the record and is just falling and falling.
23) This Summer Is Going To Hurt +2
As basic as it is for me I expected much more from this
24) Girl Crush +3
Expected more from this song
25) Post To Be -4
thought this was going to be a top 10 at some point
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Such a good week on YouTube for some acts, first time "Bad Blood" increases weekly views since release...
1. See You Again 44.4M (-3%)
2. Bad Blood 34.1M (+4%)
3. Lean On 25.8M (+1%)
4. Uptown Funk 22.5M (-3%)
5. Hey Mama 20.2M (+9%)
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Such a good week on YouTube for some acts, first time "Bad Blood" increases weekly views since release...
1. See You Again 44.4M (-3%)
2. Bad Blood 34.1M (+4%)
3. Lean On 25.8M (+1%)
4. Uptown Funk 22.5M (-3%)
5. Hey Mama 20.2M (+9%)
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That could be related to the publicity from the Apple Music matter, and the fact she announced she is now going to put 1989 on Apple Music
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Member Since: 11/17/2010
Posts: 10,527
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Why are you forecasting Cheerleader to be the streaming gainer of the week
It was already getting almost 10 million streams a week
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Member Since: 11/17/2010
Posts: 10,527
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Also Cheerleader makes yet another increase on UWC. Up to number two and still increasing in points. Has over 4 million points and still hasn't peaked
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by LostInStereo100
Why are you forecasting Cheerleader to be the streaming gainer of the week
It was already getting almost 10 million streams a week
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It seems to be strong in that metric. The SG could wind up being below #20 though.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 12/7/2008
Posts: 87,284
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So looks like Meek Mill will have the #1 album. Miguel will have the #2 spot?
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2011
Posts: 100,491
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jei-boy
So looks like Meek Mill will have the #1 album. Miguel will have the #2 spot?
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I'm not so sure @ this point
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 12/7/2008
Posts: 87,284
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Quote:
Originally posted by umich
I'm not so sure @ this point
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nnnn his promo this era is kind of unexisting
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Last Projections for Hot 100 Previewed Wednesday/Published Thursday
Bold = Bullet; AG = Airplay Gainer; DG = Digital Gainer; SG = Streaming Gainer, HSD = Hot Shot Debut
1) See You Again = /W 11 # 1;W 13 T10
2) Bad Blood = /1 W #1;W 6 T10 (last chance at # 1 next week)
3) Cheerleader +1/W 3 T10
4) Trap Queen -1/3 W #2;W 16 T10
5) Can't Feel My Face +7 (AG + DG)/W 1 T10
6) Shut Up And Dance -1/W 12 T 10
7) Watch Me +4/W 1 T10
8) Uptown Funk -2/14 W #1; W 31 T10
9) Hey Mama -1/W 6 T10
10) Honey I'm Good -1/W 4 T10
11) Fight Song + 2 SG
12) Good For You *NEW* HSD
13) Want To Want Me -6/9W T10
14) Earned It -4/3 W # 3;16 W T10
15) Worth It -1
16) Lean On +1
17) Where Are You Now -2
18) Talking Body -2
19) You Know You Like It -1
20) Sugar -1/4 W #2; 21 W T10
21) The Hills +1
22) Girl Crush +5
23) Thinking Out Loud -3/8 W #2/23 W T10
24) This Summer Is Going To Hurt +1
25) Flex +1
I removed SG from "Cheerleader" and per Tekken Guy awarded it to "Fight Song. " I see some songs that look like there are already contenders for SG next week too.
Next week is "Bad Blood's" last window of opportunity to get a second week at #1 before Cheerleader/Can't Feel My Face take over the Top 2.
"See You Again" is losing airplay and sales and streaming, but BB appears to be slowing down on airplay faster than expected, so those gains need to pick back up and she needs a strong week at Apple Music to do it.
Swift should still lead in sales and airplay by next Wednesday, given the current trajectories. I also bumped up "Girl Crush" to #22 and moved "Flex" in at #25 instead of keeping "Post To Be" in there for another week.
I really hope my #s 8-12 hold. I think some of the sales estimates are off, and my projections are based on what I think they should be based on Pop Bars' action after Friday's projections (Monday's projections changed little if any at all).
If "Uptown Funk" can just make it through next week in the Top 10 and tie the record, I'll be happy. UF should get a holiday weekend boost in sales and streaming, and maybe a few tiny increases in airplay, since that happened at Memorial Day. Only this time it's all in the same tracking period (the last one before Billboard does the switchover). UF could get a boost on Apple Music too.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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My final predictions will be coming in a few hours.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 2,311
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
Last Projections for Hot 100 Previewed Wednesday/Published Thursday
Bold = Bullet; AG = Airplay Gainer; DG = Digital Gainer; SG = Streaming Gainer, HSD = Hot Shot Debut
1) See You Again = /W 11 # 1;W 13 T10
2) Bad Blood = /1 W #1;W 6 T10 (last chance at # 1 next week)
3) Cheerleader +1/W 3 T10
4) Trap Queen -1/3 W #2;W 16 T10
5) Can't Feel My Face +7 (AG + DG)/W 1 T10
6) Shut Up And Dance -1/W 12 T 10
7) Watch Me +4/W 1 T10
8) Uptown Funk -2/14 W #1; W 31 T10
9) Hey Mama -1/W 6 T10
10) Honey I'm Good -1/W 4 T10
11) Good For You *NEW* HSD
12) Want To Want Me -5/ 9 W T10
13) Fight Song =
14) Earned It -4/3 W # 3;16 W T10
15) Worth It -1
16) Lean On +1
17) Where Are You Now -2
18) Talking Body -2
19) You Know You Like It -1
20) Sugar -1/4 W #2; 21 W T10
21) The Hills +1
22) Girl Crush +5
23) Thinking Out Loud -3/8 W #2/23 W T10
24) This Summer Is Going To Hurt +1
25) Flex +1
I removed SG from "Cheerleader", because I'm not sure if the SG's in the Top 25 or not. I see some songs that look like there are already contenders for SG next week though. Next week is "Bad Blood's" last window of opportunity to get a second week at #1 before Cheerleader/Can't Feel My Face take over the Top 2.
"See You Again" is losing airplay and sales and streaming, but BB appears to be slowing down on airplay faster than expected, so those gains need to pick back up and she needs a strong week at Apple Music to do it. She should still lead in sales and airplay by next Wednesday, given the current trajectories. I also bumped up "Girl Crush" to #22 and moved "Flex" in at #25 instead of keeping "Post To Be" in there for another week.
I really hope my #s 8, 9, 10, and 11 hold. I think some of the sales estimates are off, and my projections are based on what I think they should be based on Pop Bars' action after Friday's projections (Monday's projections changed little if any at all). If "Uptown Funk" can just make it through next week in the Top 10 and tie the record, I'll be happy.
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I have a good feeling the SG will be Fight Song; It's soaring on Spotify at a speed only See You Again has ever surpassed.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tekken_Guy
I have a good feeling the SG will be Fight Song; It's soaring on Spotify at a speed only See You Again has ever surpassed.
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I made the edits and moved it ahead of Jason Derulo and Selena Gomez's debut (took her down to #12, I think Kworb overestimated GFYs after it plummeted this weekend sales). I also think he underestimated UFs after the weekend boost (he's done that a bunch with UF, but I guess he keeps thinking the song will give out) and Cheer's huge weekend lead over GFY, but we'll find out this afternoon. I was thinking the huge streaming moves didn't really start until this chart week though, which is why I didn't award it. But you're probably right.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Final Predictions:
1. See You Again = (8-12% of lead)
2. Bad Blood =
3. Cheerleader +1
4. Trap Queen -1
5. Shut Up And Dance =
6. Can't Feel My Face +6
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) +4
8. Good For You HOT SHOT DEBUT
9. Hey Mama -1
10. Uptown Funk -4
11. Honey, I'm Good. -2
12. Fight Song +1
13. Want To Want Me -6
14. Lean On +3
15. Worth It -1
16. Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey) -6
17. Where Are Ü Now -2
18. Sugar +1
19. You Know You Like It -1
20. Talking Body -4
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1. See You Again = 100k + 162M + 15.8M = 493 (-6%)
2. Bad Blood = 149k + 152M + 9.8M = 450 (-2%)
3. Cheerleader = 181k + 82M + 11.2M = 422 (+16%)
4. Trap Queen = 79k + 48M + 18.7M = 382 (-6%)
5. Shut Up And Dance = 94k + 146M + 6.5M = 345 (-3%)
6. Can't Feel My Face = 117k + 81M + 9.5M = 335 (+43%)
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) = 98k + 28M + 12M = 289 (+17%)
8. Good For You = 174k + 22M + 6.7M = 288
9. Hey Mama = 72k + 103M + 6.7M = 277 (+1%)
10. Uptown Funk = 57k + 73M + 9.8M = 270 (-6%)
11. Honey, I'm Good. = 104k + 88M + 4.7M = 266 (-1%)
12. Fight Song = 136k + 52M + 4.6M = 256 (+9%)
13. Want To Want Me = 59k + 114M + 5.1M = 255 (-7%)
14. Lean On = 86k + 56M + 7.3M = 246 (+10%)
15. Worth It = 78k + 62M + 7.2M = 244 (+6%)
16. Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey) = 36k + 79M + 8.2M = 234 (-6%)
17. Where Are Ü Now = 73k + 58M + 6.9M = 230 (+2%)
18. Sugar = 47k + 72M + 6M = 208 (-3%)
19. You Know You Like It = 57k + 65M + 5.6M = 205 (-6%)
20. Talking Body = 59k + 84M + 3.9M = 205 (-8%)
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Member Since: 1/10/2010
Posts: 14,706
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can someone enlighten me on how the Billboard charts will work from next week on??
I read that friday will be the new chart day... and that this coming week will be different as it will have more tracking days? am I right?
Can someone explain it to me like as if I was 3 years old? Thanks
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 30,642
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do you guys think SYA will have an 11th week on top or will it be something else? Cheerleader maybe?
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by zzmyth
can someone enlighten me on how the Billboard charts will work from next week on??
I read that friday will be the new chart day... and that this coming week will be different as it will have more tracking days? am I right?
Can someone explain it to me like as if I was 3 years old? Thanks
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The new music release day will change to Friday, so Billboard will start gathering Friday through Thursday sales and streaming, and change the airplay reporting period for the Hot 100 to Monday through Sunday (putting it in line with the other airplay charts), and then the Hot 100 will be previewed Monday instead of Tuesday and published Tuesday instead of Thursday.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by IBeMe
do you guys think SYA will have an 11th week on top or will it be something else? Cheerleader maybe?
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SYA has it this week, then I think BB gets one more week next week, then the following week Cheer and CFMF take over the Top Two.
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