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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (August 30-September 6, 2015)
Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Predictions:
1. What Do You Mean? HOT SHOT DEBUT (24-28% of lead)
2. Can't Feel My Face -1
3. The Hills +1
4. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) -1
5. Cheerleader -3
6. Lean On -1
7. Good For You -1
8. 679 -1
9. Locked Away -1
10. Where Are Ü Now +3
11. Trap Queen -2
12. Fight Song -2
13. Cool For The Summer +4
14. Photograph -2
15. My Way -4
16. Wildest Dreams RE-ENTRY
17. See You Again -2
18. Shut Up And Dance -2
19. Stitches +1
20. Hit The Quan +3
"Wildest Dreams" needs around 10.3M+ streams if it wants to be Top 10 this week
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Predictions:
1. What Do You Mean? HOT SHOT DEBUT (24-28% of lead)
2. Can't Feel My Face -1
3. The Hills +1
4. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) -1
5. Cheerleader -3
6. Lean On -1
7. Good For You -1
8. 679 -1
9. Locked Away -1
10. Where Are Ü Now +3
11. Trap Queen -2
12. Fight Song -2
13. Cool For The Summer +4
14. Photograph -2
15. My Way -4
16. Wildest Dreams RE-ENTRY
17. See You Again -2
18. Shut Up And Dance -2
19. Stitches +1
20. Hit The Quan +3
"Wildest Dreams" needs around 10.3M+ streams if it wants to be Top 10 this week
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Very good prediction and I pretty much agree with everything.
Have been saying all week that WD needs 10M+ streams. It had 23M on Vevo and if it has the same US ratio as Bad Blood first week that's 6-7M plus maybe a little bit from Apple Music, but it likely won't be top 10 this week.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by simmnfierzig
Very good prediction and I pretty much agree with everything.
Have been saying all week that WD needs 10M+ streams. It had 23M on Vevo and if it has the same US ratio as Bad Blood first week that's 6-7M plus maybe a little bit from Apple Music, but it likely won't be top 10 this week.
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I use 7.5M streams for my predictions but still think it's high. I'm not sure on how Apple Music streams, just imagine them ![dies](images/smilies/images/smilies/dies.gif) I hope Apple Music streams are better for WD than they were for BB, because Apple Music almost has no effect on BB ![rip](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRLSmilies/rip_zpsec10ede9.gif)
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tsuko
I disagree, I think they'll be less common. It's really difficult to get high first-week streaming. I think even artists like Lady Gaga and Katy Perry would struggle tbh, if they get #1s in the future it'll most likely be at the very least a few weeks after release, a lot of songs peak months, even 1 year or more after release. That said, Roar did very well on release week even without a video, but I don't think Katy's next lead single will do THAT well, at least not straight out the gate.
You're right about Problem though, with a bit of extra promotion it could've debuted at #1. But I still think it'll be rare. Getting #1 in general is a lot harder than it used to be, let alone debuting there.
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We really won't know until those ladies actually do drop singles. I think Katy could do what 1D/Bieber achieved. They've been the only examples thus far of major act comebacks during this current growth of streams.
Gaga is up in the air. Her last good performance was Applause, and it "underperformed" against competition (i.e. Roar), but did good for itself. Her next pop lead will tell us if she still has that immediate pull. If Britney could do it with HIAM (411k) after 13 years and the modest performance of Amy/Radar + Circus the album being nonexistent after Winter 2008, Gaga should be able to return fiercely with the right campaign.
With that said, I don't think it'd be difficult for major acts to debut #1, and therefore debuts at the top should remain at their current trend (one to a few a year). As long as they aren't competing against a BL/Happy/UF!-sized monster.
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
I use 7.5M streams for my predictions but still think it's high. I'm not sure on how Apple Music streams, just imagine them ![dies](images/smilies/images/smilies/dies.gif) I hope Apple Music streams are better for WD than they were for BB, because Apple Music almost has no effect on BB ![rip](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRLSmilies/rip_zpsec10ede9.gif)
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That's because BB remix wasnt on Apple Music...
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
I use 7.5M streams for my predictions but still think it's high. I'm not sure on how Apple Music streams, just imagine them ![dies](images/smilies/images/smilies/dies.gif) I hope Apple Music streams are better for WD than they were for BB, because Apple Music almost has no effect on BB ![rip](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRLSmilies/rip_zpsec10ede9.gif)
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I would like to think Grammy Dreams will benefit more from AM. It's visibile on the main page, which copies the iTunes Songs chart, unlike BB which the remix was not available and wasn't easily promoted when it was maintaining in the upper tier of downloads chart.
It would help if AM had charts reflecting most streamed songs though, obvi.
I imagine if Future's album got over 11 million streams, AM is a bit under Spotify's average daily plays and WD can get a couple million from them over 7-day period.
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Member Since: 7/4/2007
Posts: 24,859
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I wonder if it's possible that Bieber could even have multiple weeks.
Seems to have a good shot at topping sales another week, his streaming is very strong while Face was #6 last week there, and his airplay is rising quickly.
Dunno if it was posted, but Billboard talks about both the latest decade #1 low and the overall sales week being the lowest since December 2007: 15.66 million, vs. 15.64 mil.
http://www.billboard.com/articles/co...treaming-rises
So I guess Bieber's song will have about 2% of the week's total song downloads?
Biggest differences this decade in T10 weeks for overall vs. sales:
Trap Queen 11, Summer 9, Let Me Love You Until 8, Uptown Funk/Drunk in Love 7, Thinking Out Loud/Down on Me 6, Hot Boy/See You Again 5
This year has had several songs clinging on after sales were done, I presume due to the rising power of streaming. And Trap Queen might still not be over...
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Bieber absolutely has a chance for a second week at #1...
Streaming and sales are still excellent and CFMF really isn't that strong. Wouldn't be shocked if he gets it.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Yeah, I'm more excited about the second week because he's really fighting for it, it's not like front-loaded at all.
CFMF is for sure gonna have a big decrease on Streaming next week, and it's already peaked on radio so the radio difference is gonna be smaller and smaller
Let's see what happens ![Duca](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRL_Smilies_All/atrlers/duca_zps480ab501.gif)
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 12,629
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Can you guys help me out ![deadbanana](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRL_Smilies_All/bananas/deadbanana2_zpsd45da7d4.gif) I'm kinda confused with CFMF chart run & sales, does anyone have its sales & peaks for the last few weeks?
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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"Come & Get It" spent 9 weeks in Top 10 (her biggest hit to date imo), I'm excited 'cause "Good For You" can stay in Top 10 for 10 weeks, please smash ![Dancehall Queen](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRL_Smilies_All/atrlers/dancehall_zps88e4c4c6.png)
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by Black Umbrella
Can you guys help me out ![deadbanana](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRL_Smilies_All/bananas/deadbanana2_zpsd45da7d4.gif) I'm kinda confused with CFMF chart run & sales, does anyone have its sales & peaks for the last few weeks?
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Hot 100 positions
24 - 12 - 6 - 6 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 2- 1 - 2 - 2 - 1
Sales
98k - 83k - 116k - 128k - ~75k (4 day week. Tracking week change) - 161k - 122k - 148k - 134k - 119k - 109k - 77k (~117k with CMA)
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 12,629
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Quote:
Originally posted by simmnfierzig
Hot 100 positions
24 - 12 - 6 - 6 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 2- 1 - 2 - 2 - 1
Sales
98k - 83k - 116k - 128k - ~75k (4 day week. Tracking week change) - 161k - 122k - 148k - 134k - 119k - 109k - 77k (~117k with CMA)
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Thank you sis ![heart2](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/a3fdf692.gif)
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 58,053
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Quote:
Originally posted by umich
Top 10 R&B/Hip Hop Single Sales For Week Ending 08/20/2015
#1. The Weeknd – “Can’t Feel My Face” – 109,428 (1,288,942)
#2. Silentó – "Watch Me" – 81,074 (1,362,349)
#3. The Weeknd – "The Hills" – 79,273 (1,012,663)
#4. Fetty Wap f. Remy Boyz – “679” – 63,616 (550,067)
#5. Fetty Wap – “My Way” – 43,946 (425,923)
#6. Eazy-E – “Boyz-n-the-Hood” – 41,899 (849,476)
#7. Nelly f. Jeremih – “The Fix” – 41,846 (42,714)
#8. Fetty Wap – “Again” – 40,001 (128,026)
#9. Drake – “Hotline Bling (Cha Cha Remix)” – 38,515 (108,528)
#10. Drake – “Back To Back Freestyle” – 38,427 (219,630)
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![clap3](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/67d90ee8.gif)
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Member Since: 9/9/2012
Posts: 59,872
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My H100 Top 10 Prediction:
1. What Do You Mean? (DEBUT)
2. Can't Feel My Face (-1)
3. The Hills (+1)
4. Watch Me (-1)
5. Cheerleader (-3)
6. Lean On (-1)
7. Good for You (-1)
8. Locked Away (=)
9. 679 (-2)
10. Where Are U Now (+3)
Basically almost indentical as Ger's, except #8 & #9, which in my predictions, were almost exactly close.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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I tweeted HDD about leaving out the Top Ten HDS and Sales Figures again this week, though I was a lot less polite this time. I'll do this every week. I wasn't in a place where I could ask anyone to retweet what I wrote yesterday, so I had to do it alone. They obviously have access to the data so HDD needs to spend less time bitching about BB and spend more time supplying us with the information BB doesn't give us anymore.
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Member Since: 4/26/2007
Posts: 15,585
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
"Come & Get It" spent 9 weeks in Top 10 (her biggest hit to date imo), I'm excited 'cause "Good For You" can stay in Top 10 for 10 weeks, please smash ![Dancehall Queen](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRL_Smilies_All/atrlers/dancehall_zps88e4c4c6.png)
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Come & get it was way better than Good for you, though.
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 9,307
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When are they announcing the next update? ![deadbanana2](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRL_Smilies_All/bananas/deadbanana_zps933fcf47.gif)
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1989
When are they announcing the next update? ![deadbanana2](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRL_Smilies_All/bananas/deadbanana_zps933fcf47.gif)
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The Billboard 200 Top 10 article is going to be revealed today afternoon
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by DevonRoars
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I'll borrow your information for my sales wall later today.
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