Cuban-Americans are barely keeping Trump afloat in Florida, but that's not enough to overtake Hillary's insane lead with Latinos in the state. Long read, but
Ha powah!
Hillary Clinton is walloping Donald Trump by a “historic” 30-point margin among likely Florida Hispanic voters, according to a new Univision poll that shows she’s tied with him among Cuban-American voters who were once a bulwark of Republican support.
Clinton’s 58-28 percent lead is a net 6-point shift in her favor since Univision polled the presidential race last month with Florida Latinos. Her 30-point margin compares to President Obama’s final 21-point spread in his historic rout of Republican Mitt Romney among Florida Latinos, according to exit polls at the end of the 2012 election.
“We’re looking at Hillary Clinton winning historic margins with Latinos in Florida at this rate,” said Fernand Amandi,
a Bendixen & Amanadi International pollster and Democrat who paired with the Republican Tarrance Group to conduct the bipartisan poll of 400 likely Hispanic voters in Florida and three other swing states.
If Clinton’s current margins with Hispanics in the Univision poll hold, Trump’s ability to win Florida — and therefore the White House — are seriously in doubt.
In contrast to Obama’s final poll numbers in 2012, Clinton has time and room to grow support, said Amandi, who noted that her campaign is advertising heavily on Spanish-language media, while Trump has repeatedly alienated Hispanic voters.
The percentage of Hispanic voters among all Florida voters has increased by about 1.5 points to 15.4 percent since 2012, making Clinton’s margins even more threatening to the Republican candidate now.
Amandi said a major revelation in the race came last week when Newsweek reported that Trump’s casino-hotel company in 1998 paid a consultant to seek business opportunities with Cuba — and broke the Cuban embargo while doing it. Clinton’s campaign ran English-language and Spanish-language radio spots that essentially accused Trump of hypocrisy because he went on to say in 1999, as he considered a bid for president then, that he backs the embargo. Today, support for the embargo is mainly concentrated among Cuban-American Republicans.
“The Cuban embargo story might have been the straw that broke the Cuban vote’s back,” said Amandi, a Cuban-American from Miami. He said Trump also performed poorly against Clinton in their first debate and may have hurt himself more by getting into a war of words with Alicia Machado, a former Venezuelan model whom Trump once fat-shamed.
Since all that unfolded, Clinton’s margins overall among Florida Latinos grew by 6 points while Trump’s 43-36 percent advantage with Cuban-Americans last month was wiped out. Clinton is now tied 41-41 percent with this group of voters.
Cuban-American support, concentrated in Miami-Dade County, is crucial for any Republican running statewide in Florida. They comprise an estimated 70 percent of the 366,000 active Republican voters in Miami-Dade, which has more GOP voters than any other in the state.
Without strong Cuban-American support for a Republican in Florida, there’s little to check Democratic candidates from running up huge margins in South Florida that can help swing the state. And Florida, the nation’s largest swing state, is one Trump needs to win.
Recent Florida polls show Clinton is starting to edge ahead of him in a general-election matchup.
Trump has notably weak support from Cuban-American leaders in Miami-Dade, where the reception to him has been cool after many took offense at his hardline stance and rhetoric over immigration. Though Trump has directed most of his fire at Mexican illegal immigrants, a number of Hispanics generally have taken offense at the remarks. Miami-Dade was the only county Trump lost in the March 15 presidential GOP primary to his then-opponent, Sen. Marco Rubio.
Thanks to strong Cuban-American support, the bilingual Rubio enjoys far greater support among Florida Hispanics. Where Trump only pulls 28 percent support, Rubio is at 45 percent.
Rubio’s opponent, Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, is gaining steam, however. Last month, Rubio was ahead of Murphy by 7. Murphy now has a marginal 1-point lead in the poll, which has an error-margin of 4.9 points. Amandi said Murphy’s support is coming almost entirely from once-undecided voters.
“The question for Rubio is ‘has he topped out?’ His numbers haven’t moved. He’s completely known,” said Amandi. “But Murphy is unknown. He has room to grow.”
The question for Murphy, though, is whether a Democrat can win Florida without dominating with Hispanics. So far, the answer to that is a no — 20 straight polls show Rubio is winning the state.
While the influence of Cuban-Americans is strong in Florida — they should account for about half of the ballots cast by Latinos in Florida — it’s waning. Puerto Rican voters are flocking to Florida from their island home and are about four years away from outnumbering Cuban-Americans. Unlike arrivals from Cuba, Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens who can simply register to vote by establishing residency.
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http://www.politico.com/states/flori...#ixzz4MTM3TJqR
My Facebook was VERY quiet today.
