I really want this to smash. But I don't see this being played on pop radio much at all.
This has a very high chance of being an urban radio smash, but that's about it. I think this will do well on iTunes for a little and then stay in the 20's or 30's for a while. Mariah songs NEED multi-format radio support to be a hit (#B, TMB, SIO, WBT), without that, they usually fall by the wayside.
That being said, I personally will be jamming to this for months.