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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 8/2/2010
Posts: 12,507
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Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ
I mean realistically speaking. What is the chance that Bernie is the nominee? Are any of you going to bet that he will win?
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This article sums it up
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Bernie Sanders’s Win in Michigan Changes Race but Not Probabilities
On Tuesday, I wrote with my colleague Jonathan Martin that “Mr. Sanders needs a surprise win [in Michigan] to show he still has a path” to the nomination.
He got it.
Bernie Sanders managed to defeat Hillary Clinton by two percentage points in Michigan on Tuesday night, even though he trailed by at least 11 percentage points in every survey, and even though the demographics pointed toward a significant, if relatively smaller, advantage for Mrs. Clinton.
Mr. Sanders’s win is so surprising that it’s hard to know what to make of it. Are we learning, for the first time, of a big latent advantage in the Rust Belt? Was it a fluke?
Yet one thing is clear: Mrs. Clinton still has a significant advantage nationwide. Her delegate lead is so solid that she would continue to win, even if Mr. Sanders’s ability to defy expectations the way he did in Michigan became a trend.
No Great Explanation
It’s not terribly surprising that Mr. Sanders outperformed polls showing him down by more than 20 percentage points. It was hard to reconcile that kind of margin with the state’s demographics, which tilt slightly toward Mr. Sanders in comparison with the rest of the country.
White voters represent a well-above-average share of the Democratic electorate in Michigan. Black voters, who have essentially been the difference for Mrs. Clinton in this campaign cycle, represent almost the exact same share of the electorate in Michigan as they do nationally.
Michigan is a mostly white working-class state that has suffered from manufacturing job losses, a receptive audience for Mr. Sanders’s views on trade and economics. It’s a relatively liberal state, too, where President Obama has posted an above-average share of the white vote in two presidential races.
But these things don’t explain his victory. All elements considered, Mr. Sanders looked like a 12-percentage-point underdog, based on an unpublished demographic model of the results so far.
Supporters greeting Bernie Sanders at a campaign event in Miami on Tuesday.
Alan Diaz / Associated Press
He beat expectations everywhere.
He did better than expected in Wayne County, home to Detroit, and Genesee County, which includes Flint, because of a relatively strong showing among black voters. He lost black voters by a margin of just 2 to 1, according to the exit polls, about half as much as his margin in the South.
He did better than you would expect in the affluent suburbs of Detroit, like in Oakland County, because he lost voters making more than $100,000 a year by only five percentage points. He lost voters making that much by 20 percentage points in Massachusetts and by 36 percentage points in Virginia.
He swept Mrs. Clinton across most of the white working-class countryside and small towns — communities that look a lot like where he basically tied Mrs. Clinton in Iowa.
Mr. Sanders had occasionally showed this kind of strength among white voters, but only in low-turnout caucuses; Oklahoma (where he was helped by conservative voters who remain registered as Democrats); and areas bordering Massachusetts.
It’s tempting to look for another explanation, but none add up.
Some have speculated that Clinton voters stayed home or chose to vote for Donald Trump because they thought the race was wrapped up, but the Democratic race has never looked especially competitive and it hasn’t led to a polling error like this.
It’s been suggested that the Sanders campaign benefited from airing additional advertisements to an extent it hadn’t on Super Tuesday, but nothing like this happened in Massachusetts — where Mr. Sanders didn’t air ads just for Super Tuesday but also for the New Hampshire primary, since New Hampshire is in the Boston media market.
You might wonder whether the race broke decidedly against Mrs. Clinton in recent days, but there wasn’t much of a sign of it in Mississippi: The same model showing Mrs. Clinton up by 12 points in Michigan showed her up, 84 to 16, in Mississippi; she ultimately won, 83 to 17.
Clinton Still Has Big Edge
If Mr. Sanders’s victory in Michigan could be explained easily by some quirk in the state, perhaps Mrs. Clinton and her allies could write it off. But without an explanation, one has to wonder whether it will be the start of a trend — a bad sign for Mrs. Clinton’s chances in other industrial states like Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Maybe it’s a reason to take the Sanders campaign’s assertions of strength in California or New York — two states where Mrs. Clinton ought to be favored — more seriously.
But in the end, none of it seems like quite enough for a victory for Mr. Sanders. Mrs. Clinton has already banked too much of a lead. As an example, the PredictWise chances for a Clinton victory changed only from 95 percent to 93 percent from Tuesday to today.
Imagine, for instance, a brutal stretch for Mrs. Clinton, one where she underperforms the demographic projections by as much as she did in Michigan for the rest of the year.
She loses in Ohio and Missouri next Tuesday. States where Mrs. Clinton was thought to have an advantage, like Arizona, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, California and Connecticut, become tossups. Mrs. Clinton wins New York, but by just eight percentage points.
She gets swept in the West, including big 40-point losses in places like Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Utah and Montana, and 30-point losses in Washington and Oregon. She loses by 20 points in Wisconsin and Rhode Island, by 30 in West Virginia and Kentucky.
She still wins — and comfortably.
How? She’s already banked a large delegate lead, and it has nothing to do with the “superdelegates.”
Forty-three percent of all of the pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention have already been awarded. She’s won those delegates by roughly a 60-40 margin.
To overcome it, Mr. Sanders will need to do nearly as well from this point on. Not even the very strong showing for Mr. Sanders imagined above would be enough.
In fact, it still wouldn’t be very close. Mr. Sanders basically splits the delegates with Mrs. Clinton the rest of the way — leaving him far short of the big 15-point advantage he needs.
Mrs. Clinton still wins clear victories in diverse or affluent states like Florida, North Carolina, Maryland and New Jersey — the only four states where she breaks 55 percent of the vote in this projection. The problem for Mr. Sanders is that many of these states are far larger than the places where he hopes to excel.
The reality is that the Democratic delegate rules, which award delegates proportionally, make it extremely hard for Mr. Sanders to dig himself out of the hole he’s already in. Indeed, he fell short of winning 60 percent of the delegates in Michigan on Tuesday night, despite the upset win. As a result, his burden in future contests grew a little larger.
Mr. Sanders needs landslides to counter landslides. Not even the results from Tuesday suggest he’s on pace to get them, at least not in states with enough delegates to counter Mrs. Clinton’s lead.
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http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/10....co/bwK1WQ1zk1
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
0.1%, because Hillary could still get indicted or like die or something.
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Member Since: 1/20/2012
Posts: 27,830
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Quote:
Originally posted by Robbyyy
You'd think we'd be able to but it seems it's not an option.
I was also surprised at how many trump supporters showed up at his rally last weekend, but considering UCF's a PWI & Florida is a red state, I shouldn't have been shocked at all.
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I haven't met any vocal Trump supporters thankfully 
Trump will probably sweep though. The Republicans here are exactly his demographic.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Quote:
Originally posted by Marvin
I know  North Florida is extremely backwards sadly.
South Florida is the most liberal part of the state so he could do good there (Cuban Americans are just one of the numerous groups of Hispanics there, plus there's a large black Caribbean population also). There's also a big college population in Orlando since UCF (2nd largest university in the country) is there. Not sure about Tallahassee/Leon County (home of FSU & FAMU) but Gainseville (UF) could be good for him also. There's a bunch of big colleges all over the state though.
I don't think Hillary is gonna sweep here. |
FL isn't happening for Bernie, trust me, I live here.
I go to UF and he has a ton of support here (like most colleges) but Gainesville is redneck central so they may outcome the college kids (all I see are Trump and Hillary bumper stickers outside campus)
And Miami is all Rubio (and Hillary to a lesser extent)
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 14,823
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Quote:
Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ
I mean realistically speaking. What is the chance that Bernie is the nominee? Are any of you going to bet that he will win?
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0%. I don't see it at all.
Quote:
Originally posted by Mr Telephone Man
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This hits it right on the head.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 14,321
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Bring more destruction 
Chances this will be over before April?
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Member Since: 1/20/2012
Posts: 27,830
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Quote:
Originally posted by Damien M
FL isn't happening for Bernie, trust me, I live here.
I go to UF and he has a ton of support here (like most colleges) but Gainesville is redneck central so they may outcome the college kids (all I see are Trump and Hillary bumper stickers outside campus)
And Miami is all Rubio (and Hillary to a lesser extent)
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He's not losing Gainesville. The college students will come out in bigger numbers than anyone else.
I think Miami could be close.
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 14,321
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Virgin Islands GOP Caucus tomorrow, I bet Rubio booked his ticket already 
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mr Telephone Man
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Best explanation I've seen. Posting to Facebook to watch all my Berning friends seethe.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 14,321
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Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
Best explanation I've seen. Posting to Facebook to watch all my Berning friends seethe. |
Tell me the results 
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
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What can I say, I'm a politician. I lie
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Quote:
Originally posted by Marvin
He's not losing Gainesville. The college students will come out in bigger numbers than anyone else.
I think Miami could be close.
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Miami? Almost impossible. But we'll see.
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Member Since: 1/20/2012
Posts: 27,830
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mr Telephone Man
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The comment section isn't having it
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Can you explain the 43% of pledged delegates being already awarded? How many pledged delegates are there total? I looked it up and saw 4,051 total pledged delegates. The Times Primary Results Calendar shows a total of 1,305 pledged delegates have been awarded to Clinton and Sanders. This is not 43% of pledged delegates. This is roughly 32% of pledged delegates.
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You can spin this all day but Hillary has only a 200 delegate lead, Bernie's numbers continue to rise and the polls have not been particularly accurate - as shown in Michigan.
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What is not addressed here is that the voters turned out in droves. At my small precinct the historical vote never surpassed 180. Yesterday I was the 200th voter at 3:15pm; by the end of the night, the total votes cast more than doubled the historic 180. The enthusiasm was generated by Bernie Sanders and voters young and old came forward to be part of the revolution. It helped that it was a sunny, warm, beautiful Michigan day. Go Bernie!
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This article, although written with a political acumen I don't possess, fails to assess the fundamental change occurring in this country, that of revolution. Bernie's campaign has mophed from a ground fire to a crown fire. Read the latest article in Slate. Hillary cannot beat Trump, only Bernie can. Bernie will continue to outperform expectations and despite all rules the democrats have made up, will win the nomination.
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Bernie 2016
You guys dismissed him in Michigan and look what happened. It's not over until one of them secures the nomination.
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Quote:
Originally posted by @michael
What can I say, I'm a politician. I lie |
omg. literally pages of people believing you. I should try lying more often >_>
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
omg. literally pages of people believing you. I should try lying more often >_>
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It wasn't intentional though. I was just mistaken. 
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Member Since: 8/2/2010
Posts: 12,507
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"Hillary 'only' has a 200 delegate lead"
Obama only had a 100 delegate lead and she could never make it up, even with her wins in NY, CA, OH, and PA. God bless the comment sections of the world. Trust me I get it, I rooted for Hillary in 08, and refused to believe it too.
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Member Since: 4/23/2012
Posts: 9,618
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If you are away, send in an absentee ballot. There's literally no excuse except it being an "inconvenience" but if you feel that strongly about a candidate, you should be eager to send it in.
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mr Telephone Man
"Hillary 'only' has a 200 delegate lead"
Obama only had a 100 delegate lead and she could never make it up, even with her wins in NY, CA, OH, and PA. God bless.
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That's what so frustrating. But Bernie did say that he was bringing in people that aren't usually involved in the political process, so it's understandable how naive they are about their candidates huge deficit.
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Nina Turner just said that Bernie is going to win New York #welp
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