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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (July 1-8, 2015)
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 3,968
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congrats selena! let's hope this isn't her peak if pop radio continues supporting good for you
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by JC_Arrow
20 weeks and chart below top 50 and you're recurrent, right?
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Yes. Most of us believe it should at least be 26 weeks. but that's why I created the thread to sound off on these issues.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by ARTPØP
Could someone please explain to me the new posting schedule for the Hot 100? I was a tad confused by the article Billboard posted.
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I wish I can explain you, but I'm confused too. I understand this should be the 11-day week period, but then some members just deny it to me, so idk 
I'm doing predictions according to the regular tracking period
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Member Since: 3/14/2013
Posts: 19,449
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Top 10 R&B/Hip Hop Single Sales For Week Ending 06/28/2015
#1. Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth – "See You Again" – 98,065 (3,072,811)
#2. Silentó – "Watch Me" – 97,432 (614,127)
#3. Fetty Wap – "Trap Queen" – 80,046 (1,882,015)
#4. The Weeknd – "The Hills" – 65,221 (396,039)
#5. Meek Mill feat. Chris Brown & Nicki Minaj – “All Eyes on You” – 44,477 (44,477)
#6. Janet Jackson – “No Sleeep” – 38,389 (38,389)
#7. Jidenna feat. Roman GianArthur – “Classic Man” – 36,503 (232,404)
#8. The Weeknd - "Earned It" – 36,201 (2,057,471)
#9. Rich Homie Quan - "Flex (Ooh, Ooh, Ooh)" – 34,448 (290,134)
#10. T-Wayne - "Nasty Freestyle" – 32,517 (785,562)
Other totals:
Jhené Aiko - Groceries - 26,882 (656,387)
Rihanna - BBHMM - 25,818 (692,388)
Jeremih & J. Cole - Planes - 16,306 (242,431) 
Alessia Cara - Here - 4,670 (35,443)
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:
1. See You Again = 20% Sales + 38% Airplay + 42% Streaming
2. Bad Blood = 34% Sales + 39% Airplay + 27% Streaming
3. Cheerleader = 43% Sales + 23% Airplay + 34% Streaming
4. Trap Queen = 20% Sales + 14% Airplay + 66% Streaming
5. Shut Up And Dance = 27% Sales + 49% Airplay + 24% Streaming
6. Can't Feel My Face = 39% Sales + 30% Sales + 31% Streaming
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) = 34% Sales + 12% Airplay + 54% Streaming
8. Uptown Funk = 21% Sales + 29% Airplay + 50% Streaming
9. Good For You = 64% Sales + 10% Airplay + 26% Streaming
10. Hey Mama = 26% Sales + 42% Airplay + 32% Streaming
11. Honey, I'm Good. = 39% Sales + 38% Airplay + 23% Streaming
12. Want To Want Me = 23% Sales + 51% Airplay + 26% Streaming
13. Lean On = 34% Sales + 25% Airplay + 41% Streaming
14. Fight Song = 55% Sales + 25% Airplay + 20% Streaming
15. Worth It = 33% Sales + 29% Airplay + 38% Streaming
16. Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey) = 15% Sales + 38% Airplay + 47% Streaming
17. Where Are Ü Now = 32% Sales + 28% Airplay + 40% Streaming
18. Sugar = 22% Sales + 39% Airplay + 39% Streaming
19. You Know You Like It = 29% Sales + 36% Airplay + 35% Streaming
20. Post To Be = 14% Sales + 30% Airplay + 56% Streaming
So for the Top 20 this week = 31% Sales + 31% Airplay + 38% Streaming
Streaming > Sales > Airplay
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 30,642
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
UF was #1 on all three main metrics for 11+ weeks (and it finally debuted on the physical singles sales chart and spent four weeks there). That wasn't true with SYA, so the argument can be made it's a weaker single. That's why I said I think it's going to last 30-33 weeks on the Hot 100, and TOL may rank #2 for the year.
I'm optimistically projecting BB to return to #1 next week, since it'll lead SYA in Sales and Airplay by then, and the original version should get some On-Demand Streaming from Apple Music (but not as much as the remix). The week after that, Cheer and CFMF take over the Top 2, so there's no way SYA can get past 12 weeks. And I expect SYA to fall relatively quickly compared to the other 10+ week #1s this decade.
I need to set up that forum for the sales v. streaming discussion, because I've promised not to talk about it on chart threads anymore. And I'm projecting 8 #1s.
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I really don't think Bad blood is going #1 again at all.
I think see you again will have a lead of like 3% in total and will sneak in.
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Member Since: 3/14/2013
Posts: 19,449
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20. Post To Be = 14% Sales + 30% Airplay + 56% Streaming
Atlantic, girl. Discount this song already 
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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I haven't finished predictions but this how Early Predictions are looking for next week (WITHOUT Apple Music):
1. See You Again = 71k + 153M + 14.7M = 439 (-10%)
2. Cheerleader = 152k + 97M + 11.2M = 410 (0%)
3. Bad Blood = 109k + 156M + 8M = 391 (-11%)
If Taylor wants the #1 then she should pull around 3.7M streams more than SYA thanks to Apple Music, which is really unlikely
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 12/7/2008
Posts: 87,284
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Can Omi get to #1 already 
Before Silento snatches!
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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I'll try to get my second set of Top 20 predictions done later today. I'll go back to Firefox for my airplay charts, because my articles don't turn out right when I copy and paste them in Google Chrome.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by IBeMe
I really don't think Bad blood is going #1 again at all.
I think see you again will have a lead of like 3% in total and will sneak in.
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We'll see. Ger doesn't think so either.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by ForeverNow90
Top 10 R&B/Hip Hop Single Sales For Week Ending 06/28/2015
#1. Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth – "See You Again" – 98,065 (3,072,811)
#2. Silentó – "Watch Me" – 97,432 (614,127)
#3. Fetty Wap – "Trap Queen" – 80,046 (1,882,015)
#4. The Weeknd – "The Hills" – 65,221 (396,039)
#5. Meek Mill feat. Chris Brown & Nicki Minaj – “All Eyes on You” – 44,477 (44,477)
#6. Janet Jackson – “No Sleeep” – 38,389 (38,389)
#7. Jidenna feat. Roman GianArthur – “Classic Man” – 36,503 (232,404)
#8. The Weeknd - "Earned It" – 36,201 (2,057,471)
#9. Rich Homie Quan - "Flex (Ooh, Ooh, Ooh)" – 34,448 (290,134)
#10. T-Wayne - "Nasty Freestyle" – 32,517 (785,562)
Other totals:
Jhené Aiko - Groceries - 26,882 (656,387)
Rihanna - BBHMM - 25,818 (692,388)
Jeremih & J. Cole - Planes - 16,306 (242,431)
Alessia Cara - Here - 4,670 (35,443)
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Are they not counting "Can't Feel My Face" at all? I know it's a bit more Poppish, but it's still getting Urban airplay.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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I think BB has a small (maybe 15-25%) chance at snatching another week at #1. It leads in sales, but is still behind by 12M in overall airplay- not that that is a large gap, but it makes it so that BB will have to pull off a huge increase in streaming, which I'm not confident in predicting. Thus, I believe that SYA will score its 12th week at #1 without much doubt.
re: SYA not deserving to be at the top and long-running #1s in general, I think the song completely earned its time at #1. It has had a huge cultural impact well outside the influence of Furious 7, and I still hear the song everywhere, constantly, much more than Bad Blood and Cheerleader. I feel like long-running #1s are completely OK, and that a song should be at #1 as long as it is the most popular song in the nation, which SYA (to me) clearly is.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2011
Posts: 100,491
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
Are they not counting "Can't Feel My Face" at all? I know it's a bit more Poppish, but it's still getting Urban airplay.
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It's being labeled as pop, so that's why it's not showing up in that sales list.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
I think BB has a small (maybe 15-25%) chance at snatching another week at #1. It leads in sales, but is still behind by 12M in overall airplay- not that that is a large gap, but it makes it so that BB will have to pull off a huge increase in streaming, which I'm not confident in predicting. Thus, I believe that SYA will score its 12th week at #1 without much doubt.
re: SYA not deserving to be at the top and long-running #1s in general, I think the song completely earned its time at #1. It has had a huge cultural impact well outside the influence of Furious 7, and I still hear the song everywhere, constantly, much more than Bad Blood and Cheerleader. I feel like long-running #1s are completely OK, and that a song should be at #1 as long as it is the most popular song in the nation, which SYA (to me) clearly is.
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I still think SYA will fall faster though than any other double digit say at #1 this decade, because its numbers are already well below where the other songs were in their last week at #1. WFL was admittedly weak seller for its time to be a 10 week #1 (it didn't reach 5 million until after falling off the Hot 100), since SAIKI, which knocked it out for two weeks, sold over 6 mil, and RITD and PRA both sold close to 7 million before falling out.
Now RITD is at 8.3-8.4, PRA is just over 8, SAIKI is at 6.1, and WFL is at 5.4. So WFL relied heavily on airplay for its stay on top, and On-Demand Streaming for slowing its descent down the chart.
I think SYA will get around 18-20 weeks in the Top 10, 26-28 weeks in the Top 40, and I'm still sticking with 30-33 weeks on the Hot 100. This just doesn't cry out mega hit like the other double digit week #1s this decade. The song is good, but its not on the same level as a Happy or BL, and they aren't on nearly the same level as UF (yes UF will pass both of those songs in sales).
I'm not sure SYA is on the same level as WFL, which I had previously considered the weakest of 2010's double-digit stays at #1. Considering AATB and SIO would have both had 12 weeks or more at #1 had it not been for the other song, sold much stronger, and had great longevity, streaming, and airplay, they might even rank above SYA.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by umich
It's being labeled as pop, so that's why it's not showing up in that sales list.
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It's more Urban than FFS!
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Some YouTube numbers for this week...
1. See You Again 43.9M (-1%)
2. Bad Blood 30.8M (-10%)
3. Lean On 28.1M (+9%)
4. Uptown Funk 22.5M (0%)
5. Hey Mama 20.7M (+2%)
6. Sugar 19.4M (0%)
7. Love Me Like You Do 17.7M (-8%)
8. Where Are Ü Now 15.8M (NEW)
9. Bitch Better Have My Money 15.5M (NEW)
10. Good For You 14.6M (+73%)
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Second set of projections for this week
1) Bad Blood + 1/W 2 #1, W 7 T10
2) See You Again -1/11 W#1/W 14 T10
3)*Cheerleader = /W 4 T10
4)*Can't Feel My Face +2 AG/W 2 T10
5)*Watch Me DG +2/W 2 T10
6) Trap Queen -2/3 wks #2, 16 wks T10
7) Shut Up And Dance -2/W 13 T10
8)* Lean On +5/W 1 T10
9) Uptown Funk -1/14 W#1/W 32 T10
10)*Fight Song +4/W 1 T10
11)*Where Are You Now +6
12) Hey Mama -2/7 W T10
13) Honey I'm Good -2
14)*Worth It +1
15) Good For You -6 (will move back up in coming weeks)
16)*Bitch Better Have My Money SG +12
17) Want To Want Me -5
18) Earned It -2
19) Sugar -1
20) The Hills +3
21) Thinking Out Loud +1
22) Post To Be -2
23) Talking Body -2
24)*Photograph +6
25)*Girl Crush +2
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Some YouTube numbers for this week...
1. See You Again 43.9M (-1%)
2. Bad Blood 30.8M (-10%)
3. Lean On 28.1M (+9%)
4. Uptown Funk 22.5M (0%)
5. Hey Mama 20.7M (+2%)
6. Sugar 19.4M (0%)
7. Love Me Like You Do 17.7M (-8%)
8. Where Are Ü Now 15.8M (NEW)
9. Bitch Better Have My Money 15.5M (NEW)
10. Good For You 14.6M (+73%)
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I made chart adjustments, except for GFY, but I may lessen its fall if its airplay increases more by Tuesday.
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Member Since: 3/31/2012
Posts: 43,847
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
Second set of projections for this week
1) Bad Blood + 1/W 2 #1, W 7 T10
2) See You Again -1/11 W#1/W 14 T10
3)*Cheerleader = /W 4 T10
4)*Can't Feel My Face +2 AG/W 2 T10
5)* Watch Me DG +2/W 2 T10
6) Trap Queen -2/3 wks #2, 16 wks T10
7) Shut Up And Dance -2/W 13 T10
8)* Lean On +5/W 1 T10
9) Uptown Funk -1/14 W#1/W 32 T10
10)* Fight Song +4/W 1 T10
11)* Where Are You Now +6
12) Hey Mama -2/7 W T10
13) Honey I'm Good -2
14)* Worth It +1
15) Good For You -6 (will move back up in coming weeks)
16) Bitch Better Have My Money SG +12
17) Want To Want Me -5
18) Earned It -2
19) Sugar -1
20) The Hills +3
21) Thinking Out Loud +1
22) Post To Be -2
23) Talking Body -2
24)* Photograph +6
25)* Girl Crush +2
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Come through King!
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