[Ramcoro]

Yea, honesty. Clinton may be leading in Ohio and Florida by huge margins, but it is hard for me to trust polls when they got it wrong in Michigan by SO MUCH. I know it's bad logic to assume all polls will be wrong because some were wrong in one state but still.

[@michael]

Originally posted by jpow

Well, they said Hillary was 99% sure to win Iowa.....and she won Iowa. So there is no discrepancy there.

Disagree, but okay!

[MAKSIM]

I think Michigan is one thing, Florida is another. Demographically, he faces a larger uphill battle. Anything can happen though as seen by the polling discrepancy this cycle. He should focus his time on Ohio, where I could see him taking the W.

[ArtForFreedom]

Originally posted by Orpheus

Bernie has the big momentum right now. You can't underestimate this.

Quoting these polls really make it worse because if she isnt stretching her lead over him (which is hard given the spread), even if he moves up on her 1-2 points it adds to the story that he's closing in on her.

They gotta play this expectation game as they did on Super Tuesday when they denied him Massachusetts.

Indeed he does.. but he still has to win pretty much every primary by at least 20 points from here on out which is very unlikely

[Auris]

Originally posted by Ramcoro

Until we change the voting method we are stuck with the Republican and Democratic Party. I honestly think primaries and caucuses saved the two party system. In the 19th and early 20th century 3rd or sometimes even 4th parties were able to gain traction when one of the two major parties didn't keep with the times. That's why the Federalist Party, Whig Party, and others come and left quickly. Even in the early 20th Century Teddy Roosevelt had his Progressive Party, and there was the socialist party that had some traction.

Now a person doesn't need to run a 3rd party, then can just run in the primaries and try to "hijack" (or change) the party, like Trump or Sanders is doing or how Reagan and Bill Clinton/Carter did it before.

Gary Johnson would have a better chance if he tried to run on the GOP ticket again.

But the GOP primary voters are the most conservative whereas Johnson appeals to liberals and independents more than the super conservative people.

[Auris]

Originally posted by ArtForFreedom

Indeed he does.. but he still has to win pretty much every primary by at least 20 points from here on out which is very unlikely

Super delegates included or not included in this calc?

[Robbyyy]

Well I live in Florida & one of Bernie's biggest problems with the college vote is kids not being in their voting location during school. We're on spring break now, but next week everyone goes back to school. Which means a lot of his college/youth votes won't get made. Especially when a lot of us aren't aware of the early voting process happening this week.

I go to UCF, & I can easily tell you 80% of the student population are not from Orlando & are from either southern Florida or northern parts. In my opinion, this may become an issue for him next week.

[@michael]

Originally posted by Auris

Super delegates included or not included in this calc?

Not included.

I've seen some Bernsters on Facebook acting like the media is being dishonest for including superdelegate numbers, but even without them, her lead is simply astronomical.

[Marvin]

Originally posted by Robbyyy

Well I live in Florida & one of Bernie's biggest problems with the college vote is kids not being in their voting location during school. We're on spring break now, but next week everyone goes back to school. Which means a lot of his college/youth votes won't get made. Especially when a lot of us aren't aware of the early voting process happening this week.

I go to UCF, & I can easily tell you 80% of the student population are not from Orlando & are from either southern Florida or northern parts. In my opinion, this may become an issue for him next week.

Same but we're on spring break next week. UCF is in the center of the state so people might be able to make the drive home to vote and then come back. That's unlikely though.

But students should really be able to vote on campus. It's kinda ridiculous that you can't.

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Benzene

Too many negatives for Bernie in FL.
-Huge minority population
-Older population
-Closed primary
-Significant early voting

"Momentum" won't help Bernie overcome any of these things.

[Marvin]

Originally posted by Benzene

"Momentum" won't help Bernie overcome any of these things.

He didn't have any momentum going into Michigan and look what happened

[LuLuDrops]

Yas, bye young people



...the youth turnout had better not flop here

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Marvin

He didn't have any momentum going into Michigan and look what happened

Michigan is not Florida. And keep in mind he outspent Hillary MASSIVELY in Michigan. He's barely even campaigned in Florida, he resigned himself to the result weeks ago.

[Benzene]

I'm guessing Sanders is dumping all of his cash into MO and OH, with maybe a little in IL.

[MAKSIM]

Originally posted by Auris

Super delegates included or not included in this calc?

Mathematically, if Hillary wins every contest except Ohio on March 15th, with decent margins, then Sanders would need to win an overwhelming majority (all but a couple) of states by at least 10ish percentage points....the states he would absolutely need to win would be every heavy delegate state. After March 15th there will be 28 states and territories remaining to vote. Hillary will probably be up ~250 delegates. If Sanders beat Hillary by 10 percentage points in New York he would get around 26 more delegates. Sanders would need to win 10 New Yorks by 10 percentage points, but obviously a lot of the 28 remaining states and territories are not delegate-rich like New York. For example, in the 8 contests between March 15th and April 15th there are only 200 delegates available.

[Robbyyy]

Originally posted by Marvin

Same but we're on spring break next week. UCF is in the center of the state so people might be able to make the drive home to vote and then come back. That's unlikely though.

But students should really be able to vote on campus. It's kinda ridiculous that you can't.

You'd think we'd be able to but it seems it's not an option.
I was also surprised at how many trump supporters showed up at his rally last weekend, but considering UCF's a PWI & Florida is a red state, I shouldn't have been shocked at all.

[HeyMr.DJ]

I mean realistically speaking. What is the chance that Bernie is the nominee? Are any of you going to bet that he will win?

[@michael]

Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ

I mean realistically speaking. What is the chance that Bernie is the nominee? Are any of you going to bet that he will win?

0%, honestly. The delegates aren't there. Too little too late.

[LuLuDrops]

[Benzene]

Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ

I mean realistically speaking. What is the chance that Bernie is the nominee? Are any of you going to bet that he will win?

0.1%, because Hillary could still get indicted or like die or something.