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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by jpow
According to 538, Hillary is at 113% of her goal for the nomination at this point with the 93 delegates she won. To stay on track, she was only supposed to win 86.
Bernie is 86% of his goal for the nomination with the 73 delegates he won. To stay on track, he was supposed to win 80.
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538 has a legitimacy problem this cycle, so I'm not paying attention to them.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 26,488
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The only third party candidate that could have affected anything was Bloomberg in a Sanders/Trump election.
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Member Since: 1/20/2012
Posts: 27,830
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Quote:
Originally posted by jpow
According to 538, Hillary is at 113% of her goal for the nomination at this point with the 93 delegates she won. To stay on track, she was only supposed to win 86.
Bernie is 86% of his goal for the nomination with the 73 delegates he won. To stay on track, he was supposed to win 80.
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Bernie isn't doing as bad as some in here make it seem like. I really think the Michigan win will give him some needed momentum. He needs to capitalize on it.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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Quote:
Originally posted by jpow
The only third party candidate that could have affected anything was Bloomberg in a Sanders/Trump election.
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We'll see in a few months  I have a strong feeling that if the CPD suit works, then Johnson will surprise many.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 14,321
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538 having their legacy tarnished  A true Truman-Dewey affair 
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
We'll see in a few months I have a strong feeling that if the CPD suit works, then Johnson will surprise many. |
If Johnson was a legitimate third party threat, people would be talking about it. He has no buzz. Do you think he's just going to pop up in June and then be able to convince a large portion of people to vote for him in five months? I don't mean to crush dreams but this just isn't realistic.
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Member Since: 8/2/2010
Posts: 12,507
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Quote:
Originally posted by @michael
538 has a legitimacy problem this cycle, so I'm not paying attention to them.
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They've been right so far on everything, except I believe MI (Dems) and OK (GOP). They called Missisippi right on the nose 83 to 16.
Only 1 poll predicted a Sanders win, and it said by 1 pt. It got lost in the noise.
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
You are part of the problem if you believe that a third party can't make a change. The vast majority of Johnson's supporters will be republicans who hate Trump, not Democrats who hate Hillary. If the election goes to the house, Johnson will win as they hate Trump more than Johnson. Bernie supporters would like Johnson as he has a record of changing things for the better, especially for the youth.
I think the next few months will surprise people as Trump solidifies his lead in the GOP and Johnson is able to attract all of the independents and anti-Trump Republicans.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
If Bernie loses, I encourage all Bernie supporters to check out the Libertarian Party. Do NOT let the momentum die and settle for Hillary or Trump. Gary Johnson will be the best candidate in the GE and if the youth spread his name like they did Bernie, the Libertarians could EASILY take 50% of the Republicans who hate Trump and a massive amount of independents who are socially liberal and economically conservative.
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RatedG is not "a part of the problem". I don't like the two party system either. You can't blame the American public for the two party system. You can't blame voters. You can't blame the parties themselves. The problem is Winner-Take All voting methods. That is what is to blame. In order to fix it, we need to amend the constitution to implement proportional representation.
Until that happens you only get two realistic choices in November. Bernie recognizes that, which is why he is competing to run on the democratic ticket and not the Green Party or as an Independent.
Also, really Libertarian Party, really? Even if we had proportional voting, I am sure most Bernie supporters would vote green party. The Libertarian Party is basically OPPOSITE of Bernie, except for social, but both Bernie and the libertarians tend to focus on economic issues anyways.
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
We'll see in a few months I have a strong feeling that if the CPD suit works, then Johnson will surprise many. |
I hope he gets traction, because then he will either be a spoiler for the GOP (most likely case) or magically kill the Republican Party and become the new 2nd party.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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Quote:
Originally posted by @michael
If Johnson was a legitimate third party threat, people would be talking about it. He has no buzz. Do you think he's just going to pop up in June and then be able to convince a large portion of people to vote for him in five months? I don't mean to crush dreams but this just isn't realistic.
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His buzz has been growing a lot recently, ESPECIALLY amongst Republicans. McAfee is keeping the Libertarians in the headlines while Johnson is actually becoming a thing with nearly every Republican I know. Perhaps he isn't doing anything with the Democrats, but he's for sure making waves on the right.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ramcoro
I hope he gets traction, because then he will either be a spoiler for the GOP (most likely case) or magically kill the Republican Party and become the new 2nd party.
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He will 100% prevent the Republicans from winning if Trump is the nominee. As for killing the Republican party, that is a dream one can only hope for... The South will never let go of their conservative values unfortunately.
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mr Telephone Man
They've been right so far on everything, except I believe MI (Dems) and OK (GOP). They called Missisippi right on the nose 83 to 16.
Only 1 poll predicted a Sanders win, and it said by 1 pt. It got lost in the noise.
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Well they also said Hillary was 99% sure to win Iowa and then won by literally a single pubic hair so they're shaky this year. And let's not get started on the Republican side.
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by @michael
Yeah, and Cuban Americans are majority Republicans. They ran away from communism so hearing that Bernie is a "socialist" probably gives them heart attacks. (I know they're not the same, but they're often conflated.)
There is also a large Jewish population, which could help Bernie. I believe most Florida Jews are Republican, though. They're different from Jewish populations in the rest of the country in that way. Edit: This info is wrong; they're mostly Democrats. Don't know where I got that from LOL
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Cuban Americans have been moving Democratic in recent elections.
If Trump is the nominee, then this trend could go up drastically. You are right. The Cuban Americans who are democrats are likely more conservative, esp on foreign policy. Good news for Clinton.
Quote:
Originally posted by Marvin
I know  North Florida is extremely backwards sadly.
South Florida is the most liberal part of the state so he could do good there (Cuban Americans are just one of the numerous groups of Hispanics there, plus there's a large black Caribbean population also). There's also a big college population in Orlando since UCF (2nd largest university in the country) is there. Not sure about Tallahassee/Leon County (home of FSU & FAMU) but Gainseville (UF) could be good for him also. There's a bunch of big colleges all over the state though.
I don't think Hillary is gonna sweep here. |
Quote:
Originally posted by Marvin
The biggest counties in Florida all have pretty big universities in them with the exception of Pinellas, which is basically nothing but old people anyway. Bernie needs to get them to vote.
Miami/Dade: FIU
Broward/Palm Beach: FAU
Tampa/Hillsborough: USF
Orlando/Orange: UCF
Jacksonville/Duval: UNF
Smaller counties but huge universities:
Tallahassee/Leon: FSU & FAMU
Gainesville/Alachua: UF
Come on Bernie  |
Oh honey, college towns themselves can't save Bernie. The youth turnout rate is terrible, it always has been. I can try to get central Florida too, that's basically the same demographics as the Midwest, although they're a lot older there, so that favors Clinton.
I'm actually going to attend UF in the fall. 
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Member Since: 8/2/2010
Posts: 12,507
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Quote:
Originally posted by @michael
Well they also said Hillary was 99% sure to win Iowa and then won by literally a single pubic hair so they're shaky this year. And let's not get started on the Republican side.
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I mean a win is a win is a win. They were right  
They should start asking for internals. The Detroit Free Press said the MI numbers were off and it was closer, Sanders camp said the numbers were off and it was closer, and Hillary's camp said exactly the same thing. Couple that and 85k Dems voting in the GOP primary instead...messy. She and Sanders camp said the same thing aboult IA as well, it seems to me the press needs to start taking their numbers more seriously.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 26,488
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Quote:
Originally posted by @michael
Well they also said Hillary was 99% sure to win Iowa and then won by literally a single pubic hair so they're shaky this year. And let's not get started on the Republican side.
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Well, they said Hillary was 99% sure to win Iowa.....and she won Iowa. So there is no discrepancy there.
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ramcoro
Cuban Americans have been moving Democratic in recent elections.
If Trump is the nominee, then this trend could go up drastically. You are right. The Cuban Americans who are democrats are likely more conservative, esp on foreign policy. Good news for Clinton.
Oh honey, college towns themselves can't save Bernie. The youth turnout rate is terrible, it always has been. I can try to get central Florida too, that's basically the same demographics as the Midwest, although they're a lot older there, so that favors Clinton.
I'm actually going to attend UF in the fall. |
Well as proven by Michigan, Bernie's supports goes far beyond college students.
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
He will 100% prevent the Republicans from winning if Trump is the nominee. As for killing the Republican party, that is a dream one can only hope for... The South will never let go of their conservative values unfortunately.
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Until we change the voting method we are stuck with the Republican and Democratic Party. I honestly think primaries and caucuses saved the two party system. In the 19th and early 20th century 3rd or sometimes even 4th parties were able to gain traction when one of the two major parties didn't keep with the times. That's why the Federalist Party, Whig Party, and others come and left quickly. Even in the early 20th Century Teddy Roosevelt had his Progressive Party, and there was the socialist party that had some traction.
Now a person doesn't need to run a 3rd party, then can just run in the primaries and try to "hijack" (or change) the party, like Trump or Sanders is doing or how Reagan and Bill Clinton/Carter did it before.
Gary Johnson would have a better chance if he tried to run on the GOP ticket again.
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Member Since: 2/2/2014
Posts: 6,697
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Bernie has the big momentum right now. You can't underestimate this.
Quoting these polls really make it worse because if she isnt stretching her lead over him (which is hard given the spread), even if he moves up on her 1-2 points it adds to the story that he's closing in on her.
They gotta play this expectation game as they did on Super Tuesday when they denied him Massachusetts.
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Well as proven by Michigan, Bernie's supports goes far beyond college students.
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I know, but I was responding to a specific post.
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Member Since: 1/20/2012
Posts: 27,830
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ramcoro
Oh honey, college towns themselves can't save Bernie. The youth turnout rate is terrible, it always has been. I can try to get central Florida too, that's basically the same demographics as the Midwest, although they're a lot older there, so that favors Clinton.
I'm actually going to attend UF in the fall. |
I know. Bernie is fighting an uphill battle but I still think he can make a lot of progress here. He needs to stress how important it is to show up at the polls. It worked in Michigan. Those first five aren't college towns btw, they're big cities. They could be close.
Congrats on becoming a Gator 
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