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Sampling Madonna's Crusty Old ***...
Member Since: 4/23/2007
Posts: 6,845
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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No, that's what I am predicting the nominees will be. Never a real science, i know.
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Banned
Member Since: 10/21/2001
Posts: 25,547
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Eurovision Calendar
Just to make it easier to follow
This Week
18th - Norway - 2nd Semifinal
19th - Denmark - 2nd Semifinal
19th - Lithuania - 2nd Semifinal
19th - Iceland - 1st Semifinal
So, no major adds for a week. Unless Turkey or Netherlands choose to unveil during a slow news week and spark more interest than the Nordic countries.
January 20-26
21st - Belarus - Eurofest Final
24th - Malta - Semifinal
25th - Norway - 3rd Semifinal
26th - Malta - Malta Song For Europe Final
26th - Czech Republic - Eurosong Final
26th - Bulgaria - Semifinal
26th - Lithuania - Semifinal
26th - Iceland - Semifinal
January 27 - February 2
27th - Belgium - 1st Quaterfinal
1st - Slovenia - 1st Semifinal
2nd - Estonia - Eurolaul Final
2nd - Azerbaijan - National Final
2nd - Lithuania - National Final
2nd - Slovenia - 2nd Semifinal
2nd - Latvia - 1st Semifinal
2nd - Iceland - 3rd Semifinal
February 3-9
3rd - Slovenia - EMA Finals
3rd - Belgium - 2nd Quaterfinal
6th - Norway - Last Chance Round
8th - Hungary - National Final
8th - Finland - 1st Semifinal
9th - Norway - Melodi Grand Prix Final
9th - Sweden - 1st Semifinal
9th - Iceland - 4th Semifinal
9th - Latvia - 2nd Semifinal
9th - Romania - 1st Semifinal
February 10-16
10th - Denmark - Dansk Melodi Grand Prix Final
10th - Belgium - 3rd Quaterfinal
15th - Finland - 2nd Semifinal
16th - Ukraine - National Final
16th - Sweden - 2nd Semifinal
16th - Romania - 2nd Semifinal
February 17-23
17th - Belgium - 4th Quaterfinal
19th - Serbia - Semifinal
20nd - Serbia - Beovizijia Final
22nd - Finland - 3rd Semifinal
22nd - Croatia - Semifinal
23rd - Bulgaria - euroBGvision Final
23rd - Poland - Piosenka dla Europy Final
23rd - Macedonia FYR - SkopjeFest Final
23rd - Romania - Selecția Națională Final
23rd - Croatia - Dora Final
23rd - Iceland - Söngvakeppni Sjonvarpsins Final
23rd - Sweden - 3rd Semifinal
February 24 - March 1
24th - Belgium - 1st Semifinal
27th - Greece - National Final
29th - Finland - Last Chance Round
1st - United Kingdom - "Making Your Mind Up" Final
1st - Finland - Euroviisut Final
1st - Latvia - Eirodziesma Final
1st - Sweden - 4th Semifinal
March 2-8
2nd - Belgium - 2nd Semifinal
6th - Germany - National Final
March 9-15
9th - Russia - Final
9th - Belgium - Eurosong Final
9th - Sweden - Last Chance Knockoff
15th - Sweden - Melodifestivalen Final
Still No Word or Confirmed Dates
Armenia - no idea when Sirusho's final is
France - this could be sliding to an internal pick at this point.
Georgia - 12-song Final is in March, just can't find a date
Ireland - Is going National Final a la Finland, final expected in March since songs due by Jan. 21.
Israel - K'dam for Boaz is still expected in February
Montenegro - Is going to be a Montenegrosong in March. Not set date, nor are there songs, just competitors. Pick a singer FIRST then pick a song.
Netherlands - no idea when Hind unveils her song.
Portugal - Still assuming RTG de Cancao is in March
San Marino - I still expect this to be internal
Spain - Yeah, no idea
Ranking The Songs!
Even though we still don't know all of Andorra's song and Bosnia is not unveiling theirs until March, we do have 3 official songs and a minute of Andorra to rank ^_^ So we begin now!
01 Albania - Olta Boka, "Zemrën lamë peng" It's a rather pretty slightly uptempo ballad that could do well without the Balkan split. Of course, since Albania loves Babelfish I am not sure how this will sound with 30 seconds cut off and in English.
02 Switzerland - Paolo Meneguzzi, "Era Stupendo" If Bryan Adams ever entered back in 1987, this would be his song. In Italian, mind you. It's very dated and rather draggy. Of course, this ALSO has to be cut to make time so maybe some lift can be added.
03 Andorra - Gisela, "Casanova" If Carola ever entered for another nation, she'd kill for this song. Total schlager stomper which is fine but it feels like a complete regression for Andorra, who have never went schlager. Sure they went a lot of ballads that were bad but this is still probably their worst entry, especially compared to "Salvem el mon" or that one about a mirror interior that went to Kyiv. Strong stage show (with flags?) can aid this one.
04 Cyprus - Evdokia Kadi, "Femme fatale" wow, this one sucks ass. Sure, a 12 from Greece is assured provided they can still make the same semi but that's gonna be it for points for this is beyond bad. Overly dated 70s folksy dance in Greek that sounds like ass and I just can't see visual (damn laptop not wanting to allow YouTube to work). Will be lucky to escape with more than a 12er.
So, unless news breaks the next update should be after Belarus unveils their entry!
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Eurovision Update Above, Oscar Edit Now
Producers announced their shortlist and are damn determined to kill off atonement - even with the GG the pic has scored like 1 or 2 TOTAL guild nods. Meanwhile, Michael Clayton (really??) and Juno get in over the GG winners from last night. Meaning I think one switch and one more comming.
Best Picture
01 No Country For Old Men
02 The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
03 There Will Be Blood
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04 Juno
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05 Atonement
At large: Michael Clayton
Well, Sweeney appears done even with the GG win and Atonement, with a single Guild nod, is clinging by it's teeth.
Best Director
01 Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
02 Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
03 Tim Burton, Sweeny Todd
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04 Jason Reitman, Juno
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05 Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
At large: Ang Lee, Lust/Caution
So no nod for Atonement and I still think PT Anderson isn't as respected for Directing as he is for scripts.
Best Actor
01 Dainel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
02 Johnny Depp, Sweeny Tood
03 George Clooney, Michael Clayton
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04 James McAvoy, Atonement
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05 Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
At Large: Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
Best Actress
01 Julie Christie, Away From Her
02 Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
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03 Ellen Page, Juno
04 Angelina Joile, A Mighty Heart
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05 Amy Adams, Enchanted
At Large: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Best Supporting Actor
01 Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
02 Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
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03 Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
04 Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
05 Max Von Syndow, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
At Large: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men
Best Supporting Actress
01 Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
02 Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
03 Helena Bohnam Carter, Sweeny Todd
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04 Saiorse Ronan, Atonement
05 Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
At large: Ruby Dee, American Gangster
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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I'm posting what I was about to post in the Britney Fandom of Retardness Thread but then thought better and am putting it here:
Yes yes, it's too much. If she had a brain or meds for her fame*****itis maybe she'd have been there at 8:30AM with her lawyers and used the same entrance that Kevin and his team used. Little pap usage right there.
But driving in circles, then to a church, then back, then home while claiming to be scared FOUR ****ING HOURS AFTER THE COURT CONVENES TO DECIDE IF YOU CAN EVEN VISIT YOUR KIDS BEFORE APRIL is far more important. Yes she's so scandalous. And clearly needs to be stripped of her parental rights.
Britney The Toddler needs to get real and go away. Give up custody of the kids you clearly have no concern for and just drive 17 minutes between Walgreens and Rite-Aid and a Shell station. Sure, Kevin looses cash but he clearly is not in it for that, he's in it to keep his sons away from the clearly stupid as **** woman who thinks it's right to go car shopping in a wedding dress and claim you're waiting on MACY*S FOR FURNITURE instead of going to court.
****ing ****.
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Member Since: 1/14/2007
Posts: 6,202
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I never wanted to actually say it that way, but you are absoltely 100% right. She needs to go far away from her kids for now while she gets her life together. Then if after an extended period of time she seems to become better, then she can see her kids again.
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Banned
Member Since: 5/24/2007
Posts: 3,065
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^ exactly.... she's lost her damn mind if you ask me.
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Member Since: 10/5/2005
Posts: 11,422
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It's amazing how some of the perceptions of KFed have gone from a "zero" to "hero" within two/three years...
And any input with Dr. Phil getting involved?
May something bless this woman...and I thought Chris Crocker had problems...
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Member Since: 10/21/2005
Posts: 19,258
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*sigh*
I know she has issues, but before you have the right to judge anyone, make sure you've been in their shoes. I haven't, so I won't judge her for her stupid ass actions.
She needs desperate help. She is in deire of mental help really though. But I'm not calling her out 100% though. You do know part of it's the pap's fault. She did do stuff on purpose to get attention, but now she just wants privacy.
If one thing you guys should rant about it's how she needs help. Before you judge someone, be in their shoes. How would you like a hundred pap's flapping in your face every two seconds when you enter/leave your house, car, bathroom, store, fast food, gas station, court, etc.
It does get to you and your head. I just want to make a clear point that you should put yourself in her shoes. She is crazy yes, but that's only cause of her past couple of years, whether or not it's her fault or not. The pap's are to blame for some of it. And she is bi-polar also. She needs to be sent away far away to an isolated island and find peace in herself. Find out who she really is and go from there.
But again, I hate when people act like they know how she feels on the inside, when really they are just a fat ass kid who picks his nose and works at a fast food making minimum wage: 6.25 or whatever the **** the minimum wage is. If anyone has the right to judge Britney it's the other celebrities. They know and been in her situation once or twice. Not the fat ass fast food kid who barely makes 200 dollars with his paycheck.
Okay....I'm done  .
And ps: I love Britney's music, but not her life (at the moment).
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Member Since: 10/21/2005
Posts: 19,258
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I'm not calling you out Mikal and I really don't want to say this cause you probably dont' like me that much especially after this
But calling her names and such words as "stupid ****" really drops your maturity level a few notches. It's very unprofessional and makes you look immature than you really are. If you think she is a "stupid ****" just say, she is a stupid woman. But whatever. I'm just a stupid kid that made a bunch of enemies in my past due to my stupid posts. What do i know?
I'm going to bed and I hope you don't hate me anymore than you do already . It's 2:30am almost and I need to sleep.
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Member Since: 8/9/2004
Posts: 21,889
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She's mentally unstable. You can't judge someone who is out of their mind. Her actions aren't supposed to make sense anyway. I've been reading about bipolar people and those who have mental illness that most of them have to hit the rock bottom to realize that they need help. You can't just ask her to get help and expect her to be seeking for it. It takes lots of time for a patient to realize that it's time to get help. Hopefully she will get eventually. And kudos for her being free of Drugs and Alcohol. That's where all my sympathy for her comes from. I ****ing love this woman.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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A Second, more in depth Rant where BritFans shall comment again
Yay, I was hoping the fans would invade my thread, since I chose not to start **** in their thread. Why not fight in a blog where they forced dissent to ^_^ (also know as Why I Said We Have To Allow Dissent In Threads And The Mods Chose To Back The BritFans And Shove It Into Blogs While They Knew **** Like This Would Happen). Oh, to the BritFans: I applaud you for sticking to her for some ungodly reason, for had I ever been a fan (remember, i like some music and Get Naked shoiuld be a single, damn it) I'd have moved on by now. I ain't mad cuz ya'll defend her in mah tread although it is mah thread, just humored that the fight is here :-p
See, to me...I don't see her having a mental problem. I see her just doing what she wants and assuming she can get away with for she is "Britney Spears" and is pissed that (a) she's being told what to do by a superior authority and she ain't gonna listen and (b) Kevin is winning - and unlike most here I never had an opinion on Kevin. Sure he's a dirty man but unlike the Fans, I assumed he wasn't the worst thing ever. Nor do I hold him responsible for her showing us her c-section scars, shaving her head, random clothing exchanges, needing to refill her car every 9 minutes cuz a pap caravan the lenght of Chile wants to watch or her unwillingness to even pretend to be a mama or care about getting at least joint custody. That clearly irks her mind, hence the tempter tantrum from hell last week, hence her flinging herself ad Sam&Alli or Adnan or being so dependent on the paps telling her lies like she looks good at 3:30 am outside a Shell. And blaming the paps is bull for if she didn't want them I suspect she could, I dunno, hire a driver or not date a paparazzo or lose Sam&Alli and then, ta-da! She could sneak away to the Four Seasons. She's allowed them far more access to her life than should be - hell, before she was ****in' Adnan he BROUGHT HER A TAMPON AND GOT TO WATCH HER PUT IT ON - so throwing stones at them means there should be some ricochet onto her. She let them in cuz she wants to run them and she has easily won that fight, making the fans assume she's the poor widdle girl when she has them wrapped on her finger.
Furthermore, if there is something wrong - be it bipolar, post-partum, immaturity, massive stupidity, whatever - and she is rather clearly doing nothing about it, why should anyone including her fans be sympathetic to her? She clearly is showing no interest in getting well, since she'd rather go look at love seats or what deals she can get at Walgreens rather than, I don't know, stay home, maybe see a shrink (and no, not Dr. Phil),consider going to court to try and fight for the kids. She's not fighting for the kids, she's just blaming others for herself losing them (while trying to use the court monitor as a babysitter so she can shop for chandeliers) and people buy it rather than see the tape and clips and ask why the hell she didn't just walk forward from the sidewalk to the door. But clearly going to a late lunch is more important. Expecting her to get help when she has shoved everyone away is obviously a problem, but she now has a new foine mayun she added (and he has a ring, which is like a requirement for her) and he's using her as an ATM rather than suggesting she get her some Jesus or Prozac.
Does it make me immature that I expect celebs to act like normal people and assume that if there IS something wrong they should get help and when they show zero interest in getting it I call them out on their actions and become vile? Sure, why not. But at the same time it's her own damn fault she's become the way she is for she has zero interest in fixing it. It's not like the Four Seasons has a clinic inside, maybe her dealer.
Just my own opinion on it. No I haven't walked in her shoes, mostly cuz she won't take them off and my foot would disintegrate when wearing them.
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Member Since: 8/9/2004
Posts: 21,889
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Mikal, you seem like you just can't get it. What you've just said is a further proof that she has a mental problem. No one in their right mind think about doing any of that. You always look at it as a moral or "bad" behavior issue. It's more than that. It's a physical and psychological problem.
- "why should anyone including her fans be sympathetic to her? She clearly is showing no interest in getting well"
- Because as I said, if you have any idea about people who go through mental issues; being in denial and thinking that everything is ok is a BIG PART of their problem. If you know about that, you'd definitely be sympathetic and wishful.
- "I see her just doing what she wants and assuming she can get away with for she is "Britney Spears"
Quote:
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"She's suffered from a psychological disease for years," says a source close to the singer. Two separate sources close to Spears believe she has been diagnosed as bipolar, while additional sources confirm she has been prescribed at least one antidepressant/antianxiety drug. Dr. Mark Goulston, a Santa Monica-based psychiatrist who has not treated Spears, says her erratic actions both in the past week and in recent years suggest "classic bipolar behavior, including hypersexuality, poor judgment and impulsivity." Mi or behaviors that once seemed merely quirky – the hot-pink wigs, occasional British accent, barefoot bathroom pit stops, as well as major incidents such as shaving her head in early 2007 – take on new context when viewed through a prism of possible mental illness. Yet "she does not think she has a problem," says a source close to Spears. Dr. Goulston points out that "manic behavior is when you don't have any sense of rules. There's a grandiosity: 'I play by my own rules.' "
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I think that sums it up for ya.
And Mikal, drop the "ya'll BritFans" thingy please, It's getting old. We all know that you're her biggest fan here.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Ending a trilogy of not caring...
Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww! *warm fuzzies*
So first, you get the non-fans unable to post in your thread, then you must "prove" you point in the blogs of those who don't see Britney in the Tecnicolor Sparkle that you do. Especially wehen quoting a source who is more than likely Sam&Alli, who is as close to Britney as, eh, I am. Congrats, I don't care. She's still a fame***** who doesn't want help, not for she's in denial, but for she doesn't care.
Anyways, since I really don't need ya'll in my blog anymore (for perish the thought anyone thinks other than the Britney Collective), I'll be returning back to Eurovision updates and random sports comments and just generally ignoring that rampant stupidity occuring on the board. But thanks for actually try to prove me wrong rather than just flame my blog calling me a fat paparazzi who makes no money or anything else.
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Member Since: 8/9/2004
Posts: 21,889
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The point of that quote was to get you to understand the psychiatrist's analysis AKA SCIENTIFIC explanation, not the "close sources" reports. But it seems that you read what you want to read. *shrugs*
Anyways, I don't understand your attitude. For the fact that I've never asked the "non-fans" to not enter the Britney thread. I wouldn't mind if you had made that same blog post in the Britney thread. I'd be happy to discuss it with you. But it seems that you want to make a blog post and expect everyone worshiping your opinion. Oh well, sorry that I didn't read the rules of the blog area. I didn't attack you personally or called you dumb. I was sharing my point of view as well. You made your point and I made mine (which was based on more logical reasons than just assuming someone is a spoiled brat). And now you ask me to leave your blog just because I didn't think you were right? LMAO. You need to grow the **** up and I'm sorry for wasting my time here. Now you can go back to posting your random ****.
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Banned
Member Since: 10/21/2001
Posts: 25,547
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Your sports and Eurovision blogs are 2000 times better than the Britney blogs. 
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Yay, someone likes my Eurovision blogs ^_^. Well, more might as we get close to Belgrade 
As to Peepshow, well, you are level headed and that's why I wub you anyways. I dare not infiltrate the Brit thread just to express my opinion for I don't need 50 people jumping down my throat over how wrong I am. As for wanting adoration over my blog, not really. I felt like venting and the fact that a couple responded in agreement with me is funny, as I assume that unless you are in the Britney camp the board tends to stay silent.
So, not me getting off on lurve in blog response (although there are some people who do blog who I thinki do get off on the number of responses), just me venting in the safety of my blog 
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Eurovision Update...and I am nice to Belarus!
Selection Weekend
So I can't figure out Norway. I sampled their 18 songs and am confused how the snarling "Lystgass" from Podium is only in the Second Chance Round while the absolutely horrendous "Hold On Be Strong" is considered co-favorite for the Norwegian ticket. If I have to say from those in, I hope it's the Sami-language entry "Andagassii" which is rather pretty and could trick the Balkan voters.
Sweden announced their Wildcards for Melodifestivalen and yes, Carola is back again. But it's as a duet with Sweden's favorite idiotic balladish moron, Andreas Johnson, who cannot take a hint that no, they don't wanna send him anywhere. and it's apparently a schlager ballad. Please, for all that is sane Sweden, don't send her again.
Am checking out other songs from Poland, Belgium, the Czechs and a few other places. Comments on those when I have a chance to hear them and decide if i hate this years contest yet. 
Eurovision Calendar
This Week
24th - Malta - Semifinal
25th - Norway - 3rd Semifinal
26th - Malta - Malta Song For Europe Final
26th - Czech Republic - Eurosong Final
26th - Bulgaria - Semifinal
26th - Lithuania - Semifinal
26th - Iceland - Semifinal
So next Monday's update will have two more reviews at worst ^_^
January 27 - February 2
27th - Montenegro - Montenegrosong Artist Final
27th - Belgium - 1st Quaterfinal
1st - Slovenia - 1st Semifinal
2nd - Estonia - Eurolaul Final
2nd - Azerbaijan - National Final
2nd - Lithuania - National Final
2nd - Slovenia - 2nd Semifinal
2nd - Latvia - 1st Semifinal
2nd - Iceland - 3rd Semifinal
February 3-9
3rd - Slovenia - EMA Finals
3rd - Belgium - 2nd Quaterfinal
6th - Norway - Last Chance Round
8th - Hungary - National Final
8th - Finland - 1st Semifinal
9th - Norway - Melodi Grand Prix Final
9th - Moldova - National Final
9th - Sweden - 1st Semifinal
9th - Iceland - 4th Semifinal
9th - Latvia - 2nd Semifinal
9th - Romania - 1st Semifinal
February 10-16
10th - Denmark - Dansk Melodi Grand Prix Final
10th - Belgium - 3rd Quaterfinal
15th - Finland - 2nd Semifinal
16th - Ukraine - National Final
16th - Sweden - 2nd Semifinal
16th - Romania - 2nd Semifinal
February 17-23
17th - Belgium - 4th Quaterfinal
19th - Serbia - Semifinal
20nd - Serbia - Beovizijia Final
22nd - Finland - 3rd Semifinal
22nd - Croatia - Semifinal
23rd - Bulgaria - euroBGvision Final
23rd - Poland - Piosenka dla Europy Final
23rd - Macedonia FYR - SkopjeFest Final
23rd - Romania - Selecția Națională Final
23rd - Croatia - Dora Final
23rd - Iceland - Söngvakeppni Sjonvarpsins Final
23rd - Ireland - Eurosong Final
23rd - Sweden - 3rd Semifinal
February 24 - March 1
24th - Belgium - 1st Semifinal
25th - Israel - Song Presentation
26th - Israel - Kdam Eurovision Results
27th - Greece - National Final
29th - Finland - Last Chance Round
1st - United Kingdom - National Final
1st - Finland - Euroviisut Final
1st - Latvia - Eirodziesma Final
1st - Spain - Salvemos Eurovisión Final
1st - Georgia - National Final (but only seen on Wiki so not sure if legit)
1st - Sweden - 4th Semifinal
March 2-8
2nd - Belgium - 2nd Semifinal
6th - Germany - National Final
8th - Armenia - National Selection
March 9-15
9th - Russia - Final
9th - Belgium - Eurosong Final
9th - Portugal - Festival da Canção Final
9th - Sweden - Last Chance Knockoff
15th - Sweden - Melodifestivalen Final
[u] Internal Selection - TBA Song
Bosnia & Herzegovina
France
Netherlands
Turkey
Still No Word or Confirmed Dates
San Marino
Ranking The Songs!
01 Albania - Olta Boka, "Zemrën e lamë peng"
02 Switzerland - Paolo Meneguzzi, "Era Stupendo"
03 Belarus - Ruslan Alekhno - "Hasta la Vista" Belarus sings in English with a Spanish title. And weirdly, I sorta like it. It's very 90s sounding, but not like the schlager I expected it to be. I like it more than last year's "Work Your Magic" (and I expect to be the only one) but his accent and some of the stupidity of the accents will more than likely work against this song making it to the Finals.
04 Andorra - Gisela, "Casanova"
05 Cyprus - Evdokia Kadi, "Femme fatale"
Oh, and Oscar noms in the morning too! Will it be Atonement, Michael Clayton, Juno, Sweeney Todd or Into The Wild getting the big 2 shutout? And can someone explain how "4 Months, 3 Days, 2 Hours" AND "Persepolis" AND "The Orphanage" got left out of the Final9List for best Foregin Film? Talk about being robbed (although if Persepolis gets ignored for, say, Beowolf or Bee Movie for Best Animated I will cut a bitch.)
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Playing with the Oscar Nods...
Firstly, I dunno why Heath may have od'ed but he will be missed as a lead on the rise. It will make The Dark Knight very odd as well.
Now...here's the shoulds and wills come the strangest looking Oscars in some time.
Lead Actor
George Clooney in “Michael Clayton”
Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood”
Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah”
Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises”
Obviously, where the hell did Tommy or Viggo come from? No matter, this is really Daniel's to loose. Considering he dislikes running for Oscar, Johnny could sneak in.
Should & Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Sleeper: Johnny Depp
Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men”
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War”
Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild”
Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton”
Sure, there's 5 people nommed but this is so Javier's no one should up.
Should & Will Win: Javier Bardem
Sleeper: er...Hal Holbrook?
Lead Actress
Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
Julie Christie in “Away from Her”
Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose”
Laura Linney in “The Savages”
Ellen Page in “Juno”
Laura sneaking in and Cate somehow magically getting in over Angelina (who was robbed) makes this category sorta interesting. While still a two-horse race between Marion and Julie (no critics, Ellen Page is NOT winning), I think one of those two could be a sleeper...especially Laura, who was on no one's radar after the NBR.
Should Win: Marion Cotillard
Will Win: Julie Christie
Sleeper: actually, Cate Blanchett. She is going home with her second win, just wondering which one.
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There”
Ruby Dee in “American Gangster”
Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement”
Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone”
Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton”
As I said above, Cate is winning a second trophy and it's more than likely here. Amy Ryan got the crit love but Cate got the Globe and that will far more aid her. Now, who could slip past? Probably Ms. Dee, who got a Career Acheivement nod for her role in "Gamgster." It could split this category wide open and let Saoirse or Tilda sneak in!
Should & Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Sleeper: Ruby Dee
Animated Film
“Persepolis”
“Ratatouille”
“Surf's Up”
And where the hell did Surf's Up come from?!?!?! Sorry rats, but the crits love the other French flavored film and seriously, Persepolis was wronged in not getting a Foreign nod.
Should & Will Win: Persepolis
Sleeper: Ratatouille
Best Director
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” for Julian Schnabel
“Juno” for Jason Reitman
“Michael Clayton” for Tony Gilroy
“No Country for Old Men” for Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” for Paul Thomas Anderson
So there is wondering how Atonement made itself but it's not Schnabel's fault. it's the Academy's weird love for Michael Clayton, which robbed Atonement of a Director and Diving Bell of a Picture nod. Coens are the faves but Schnabel's globe win and rise in crit love makes him far dangerous.
Should Win: Julian Schnabel
Will Win: Joel & Ethan Coen
Sleeper: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best documentary feature
“No End in Sight”
“Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience”
“Sicko”
“Taxi to the Dark Side”
“War/Dance”
duh....
Should Win: Operation Homecoming
Will Win: Sicko
Sleeper: No End in Sight
Achievement in film editing
“The Bourne Ultimatum” Christopher Rouse
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” Juliette Welfling
“Into the Wild” Jay Cassidy
“No Country for Old Men” Roderick Jaynes
“There Will Be Blood” Dylan Tichenor
Ya can't win Bets Picture without Best Editing. So it's either No Country or Blood. But I suspect this could be an odd category and Into The Wild and Diving Bell will battle for the win.
Should Win: The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Will Win: No Country For Old Men
Sleeper: Bourne Ultimatum
Best foreign language film of the year
Israel - “Beaufort”
Austria - “The Counterfeiters”
Poland - “Katyń”
Kazakhstan - “Mongol”
Russia - “12”
So...are we just handing the thing to Israel? I mean really people, Persepolis (or La Vie En Rose) and The Orphanage and 4 Months 3 Days 2 Hours were flipping robbed.
Should Win: 12
Will Win: Beaufort
Sleeper: Katyn
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“Falling Slowly” from “Once”
“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
“Raise It Up” from “August Rush”
“So Close” from “Enchanted”
“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
I'm smelling Dreamgirls...
Should & Will Win: Falling Slowly
Sleeper: Raise It Up
Best motion picture of the year
“Atonement”
“Juno”
“Michael Clayton”
“No Country for Old Men”
“There Will Be Blood”
This is a 3 horse race: No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood and Atonement. Atonement is in largely cuz of the Globe as well as it being one of those sweeping dramas they like more than Blood or No Country. Besides, the Academy will surely reason, we just went dark with The Departed and we need something more romantic. Juno and Michael Clayton are placeholders, wrongly taking Sweeney Todd and Diving Bell's slots. Had they made it, this would be the best Best Pic final list in like years.
Should & Will Win: Atonement
Sleeper: either No Country or Blood. Either of the three? Worthy winners IMO.
Adapted screenplay
“Atonement”, Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
“Away from Her”, Written by Sarah Polley
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”, Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
“No Country for Old Men”, Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood”, Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
YAY SARAH POLLEY! I smell a sleeper! Since I suspect PTA and the Coens will be passed over for Director, it's more their category.
Should Win: Atonement (have you seen that book? it's a miracle anyone could make a movie from it)
Will Win: No Country For Old Men
Sleeper: Away From Her
Original screenplay
“Juno”, Written by Diablo Cody
“Lars and the Real Girl”, Written by Nancy Oliver
“Michael Clayton”, Written by Tony Gilroy
“Ratatouille”, Screenplay by Brad Bird & Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
“The Savages”, Written by Tamara Jenkins
DIABLO!!!!!!!!!!!
Should & Will Win: Juno
Sleeper: Ratatouille
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