ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Top 25 Prediction for Hot 100 Previewed Wednesday, Released Thursday, Bold=Bullet
1) See You Again = | wk 10 #1/wk 12 T 10 |
2) Bad Blood = | 1 wk #1/wk 5 T 10 (could return to #1 with Apple ODS NW, possible AG TW) |
3) Shut Up And Dance +1 | wk 11 T 10 |
4) Trap Queen -1 | 3 wks #2, wk 15 T 10 |
5) Cheerleader +2 DG | wk 2 T 10 |
6) Uptown Funk = | 14 wks #1/wk 30 T 10 |
7) Watch Me +4 SG | wk 1 T 10 |
8) Hey Mama +1 | wk 5 T 10 |
9) Want To Want Me -4 | wk 9 T 10 |
10) Honey, I'm Good = | wk 3 T 10 |
11) Earned It -3 | 3 wks #3/17 wks T 10 [falls out of T 10 TW]) |
12) Worth It +3
13) Fight Song +6
14) Sugar -2 | 4 wks #2/21 wks T 10 |
15) Lean On +5
16) Can't Feel My Face +8 AG
17) You Know You Like It -4
18) Talking Body -4
19) Thinking Out Loud +2
20) Where Are You Now -4
21) Post To Be -4
22) Nasty Freestyle -4
23) The Hills =
24) Flex +3
25) Love Me Like You Do -3 | 1 wk #3/15 wks T 10 |
Cheerleader will be the next NEW #1 song, but that doesn't mean Bad Blood might not sneak in a weak or two before it gets there, With Bad Blood now going to get On-Demand Streaming on Apple, this will give BB a boost toward the end of next week, and the entire following week. After this chart, I think Cheerleader has a 3 week climb to the top, probably 5-3-3-1, as TQ and SUAD are both declining, but the song still has to catch up to SYA and BB. I stuck SUAD above TQ more for spite than anything else, though a pleasant surprise tomorrow would be nice.
Uptown Funk enters its 30th week in the Top 10, and I have the song at #6. I know Watch Me will likely pass it on next weeks chart, but I don't think any other song will.pass it. WTWM should fall out of the T 10 next week, and HIG could too, given the weak streaming and the sales losses and airplay gains cancelling each other out. HM is also losing sales (-10K) but gaining airplay (+7 million), but it's far enough behind in streaming to stay below UF. It could get another week in the Top 10.
The following week UF should get a boost from all metrics due to the 04 July weekend, and that would let it tie the Top 10 longevity record. Whether or not UF breaks the record depends on how quickly the four ascending songs in the Top 20 can close the gap and reach the Top 10. If two songs do it, it won't make a difference, three probably wouldn't either, but all four songs would bump UF out after tying instead of breaking the record.
I have Cheerleader as the DG, Watch Me as the SG, and Can't Feel My Face as the AG. The last song will be in a close race with BB for that award, so Billboard's numbers may give that award to Swift instead of The Weekend.
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