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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ramcoro
Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho are NOT the midwest. 
  Hillary is probably going to win Illinois, but Indiana's Chicago suburbs are not big enough to flip the whole state. Even Detroit can't flip all of Michigan. |
This is how Hillary eeked out a 2% win against Obama in Indiana. She destroyed him in basically every county minus the capital and the section near Chicago, and he still came close to a tie with her.
Hillary is going to win the sections Obama won in 2008, + keep some of her own counties and do better because she is winning the women's vote this year like she did in 2008. It's going to be a similar story in Michigan and Illinois
And Montana and Wyoming and Idaho are the damn Midwest 
edit: ok maybe not Idaho
edit2: ****
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 26,488
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
And Montana and Wyoming and Idaho are the damn Midwest
edit: ok maybe not Idaho |
Girl that picture you posted doesn't have Montana, Wyoming, nor Idaho in it 
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by jpow
Girl that picture you posted doesn't have Montana, Wyoming, nor Idaho in it |
oh, i just noticed 
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 2,514
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
oh, i just noticed |
lmao god bless!
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Member Since: 2/2/2014
Posts: 6,697
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Bernie does have the opportunity to change the tide if he does better than expected in debates. There are TWO before March 15th! I can see him coming out swinging.
MARCH 6, 2016
Democratic debate – CNN
Location – Flint, Michigan
Moderators – Anderson Cooper
MARCH 9, 2016
Democratic debate – Univision/The Washington Post
Location – Miami, Florida
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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Anyone who voted Cruz disgusts me
Anyone who voted Hillary extra disgusts me. She will get destroyed in the debates. Bernie won't.
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
Anyone who voted Cruz disgusts me
Anyone who voted Hillary extra disgusts me. She will get destroyed in the debates. Bernie won't.
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you're going to be retching all day on inauguration day 2017.
and Bernie already gets destroyed in the Dem debates
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 26,488
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CNN will lean more positively towards Hillary, so Bernie will have to absolutely NAIL the debate (something he hasn't really done yet) to come out as the winner IMO.
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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but none of the news media has really even seriously gone after Bernie yet, though. none one has brought up his essays or the improbability of his plans or mentioned that the youth vote hasn't been turning out for his "revolution"
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
This is how Hillary eeked out a 2% win against Obama in Indiana. She destroyed him in basically every county minus the capital and the section near Chicago, and he still came close to a tie with her.
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She eeked out a win in Indiana over him? Well that alone kinda throws away the argument I've seen some Sanders supporters use that said something along the lines of
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Hillary is only winning the states that vote red in November while Bernie can actually win the swing states that we need
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Obama lost to Clinton in Florida, Ohio, PA, California, Indiana (which has voted red every year since 1964 until 2008) and yet he racked those states up and more in 2008. Primary wins do not signify anything for GE wins
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 2,514
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Quote:
Originally posted by Orpheus
Bernie does have the opportunity to change the tide if he does better than expected in debates. There are TWO before March 15th! I can see him coming out swinging.
MARCH 6, 2016
Democratic debate – CNN
Location – Flint, Michigan
Moderators – Anderson Cooper
MARCH 9, 2016
Democratic debate – Univision/The Washington Post
Location – Miami, Florida
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Its hard to imagine anything new being said in either of these debates that will increasingly shift the picture voters have in their head for who they're supporting. Especially with the focus in both campaigns kind of starting to kind of shift more towards the GOP candidates rather than at each other.
Debates are also not really that important in the larger picture when it comes down to it tbh. There are some examples where you can argue otherwise but thats usually "the exception to the rule" imo.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 9,799
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
Anyone who voted Cruz disgusts me
Anyone who voted Hillary extra disgusts me. She will get destroyed in the debates. Bernie won't.
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What kind of fantasy world do you live in? How do I get there?
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
She eeked out a win in Indiana over him? Well that alone kinda throws away the argument I've seen some Sanders supporters use that said something along the lines of
Obama lost to Clinton in Florida, Ohio, PA, California, Indiana (which has voted red every year since 1964 until 2008) and yet he racked those states up and more in 2008. Primary wins do not signify anything for GE wins
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you should throw out the fact that Clinton obliterated Bernie in Virginia, a purple state, and let that sink in. Bernie winning in Minnesota is not going to be as critical as Hillary winning in Virginia and definitely in North Carolina, Ohio and Florida and Michigan and Pennsylvania etc...
Plus, Bernie's delegate haul is going to be dependent on the bright red Republican states of Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. Their argument will be shut down when they realize they need Republicans states to even stay somewhat in the game.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
Chicago and the near chicago-area (lots of blacks and latinos) is going to win Illinois and Indiana for Hillary.
Detroit and its wealthy suburbs are going to win Michigan for Hillary.
Ohio may be a little closer, but Hillary won in 2008 without the black vote, and she has the black vote now. I expect Ohio to be a 10-20% Hillary win this year with Bernie winning white men and the working class (though Hillary's union endorsements will help her stabilize this vote).
Bernie's midwestern states are more like Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Idaho, and Kansas. These states don't have many democrats (or delegates) but the ones they do have are super liberal and hate the Clintons.
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And even if Bernie wins Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, they will be by too small margins to matter, with Hillary 200 delegates up with states like Florida and California to go.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
you're going to be retching all day on inauguration day 2017.
and Bernie already gets destroyed in the Dem debates |
If our president ends up Hillary then for sure  I'd be fine with anyone other than her, Cruz, Rubio, or Carson.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
you should throw out the fact that Clinton obliterated Bernie in Virginia, a purple state, and let that sink in. Bernie winning in Minnesota is not going to be as critical as Hillary winning in Virginia and definitely in North Carolina, Ohio and Florida and Michigan and Pennsylvania etc...
Plus, Bernie's delegate haul is going to be dependent on the bright red Republican states of Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. Their argument will be shut down when they realize they need Republicans states to even stay somewhat in the game.
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Someone asked were there any states that have a chance of turning blue this year right? Clinton has real chances in GA, MT, MO, AR, LA, KY, and AZ. I would've included NC and VA but those are purple
Not saying she will win any of them but she has a much better chance than Sanders to switch those states blue. Sanders has a better chance at
NE (well one delegate proportion) and maybe WV. He won't turn the red over much but he can probably run up bigger margins in some of the deeper blue
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
If our president ends up Hillary then for sure I'd be fine with anyone other than her, Cruz, Rubio, or Carson. |
You'd be fine with Trump over her?
Looks like I'll find you next to Sasha and David Duke in the next Trump rally in Mississippi holding hands and discussing ideas together
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 2,514
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
but none of the news media has really even seriously gone after Bernie yet, though. none one has brought up his essays or the improbability of his plans or mentioned that the youth vote hasn't been turning out for his "revolution"
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or how his voting record isn't as "squeaky clean" as his supporters like to claim!
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 26,488
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
If our president ends up Hillary then for sure I'd be fine with anyone other than her, Cruz, Rubio, or Carson. |
Have fun with President Trump and the Great Wall of Mexico then 
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
If our president ends up Hillary then for sure I'd be fine with anyone other than her, Cruz, Rubio, or Carson. |
why exactly? If you're going to argue Hillary is a hawk, Trump, Cruz, Rubio and even Carson have shown that the only thing they know about foreign policy is building up our military and flexing out might overseas.
If you're going to argue economics, let's point out that all of the GOP candidates are practicing voodoo econ to the extremes. They want more tax cuts for the wealthy. Hillary wants the exact opposite and has always voted against such tax cuts.
If you're going to argue about healthcare, have fun. The GOP wants to defund even medicaid and medicare so the poor and elderly can't even have guaranteed health.
If you want to argue about gender and sexual equality, I'm going to stop here and laugh in your face.
If you want to argue about scandals, then sure. Hillary might have a lot of scandals, but out of 3 decades of being attacked, nothing has stuck and Hillary Clinton still commands the tremendous respect of half the country and foreign leaders like Angela Merkel, David Cameron, Netanyahu, Shinzo Abe, etc. There is literally no one in politics who is more respected internationally than Clinton minus maybe Obama, Joe Biden, and John Kerry, and even all of them don't have as longstanding a relationship with foreign leaders as Clinton.
If you're disgusted with Hillary because she's a woman or married to Bill Clinton, then I have nothing for you there.
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