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Sampling Madonna's Crusty Old ***...
ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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CB20 Presents: How Les mIles Shot LSU In The Head
No poll until after Hawaii, as Illinois, Kansas and Georgia are waiting on those results.
So, who's No.2? Well, obviously the question should be Is Ohio State really #1? I have Virginia Tech and Georgia as my #1 and #2 cuz I still doubt OSU is good. ESPN is calling a LSU appearance in the title game and if Les Miles would just shut the **** up, they probably would. But announcing YES AGAIN THAT YOU ARE "UNDEFEATED" IN REGULATION WILL END THOSE DREAMS. Why? Cuz Les, LSU has two losses. TWO. 3-overtimes or not, that is two losses and that means they are weighed against a team that did not win their division (Georgia AND Kansas) two other conference champs (VaTech and Oklahoma) as well as Southern Cal. Hell, if Hawaii can figure out in the last 3 quarters how to beat Washington should have some say as #2. Why? Cuz Hawaii's sched is about as good as Ohio State and the big ten is pretty much WAC level this year.
Update after Hawaii and Washington.
Oh, congrats to Navy for their win over Army and Stanford finishing the season with a win in the Big Game
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Member Since: 6/16/2006
Posts: 8,691
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I'm watching the Hawaii game right now they are losing 21-0. If they were to go undefeated I would say that they deserve to be in the BCS Championship game. But they're losing but to tell you the truth there is truly not two teams right now at all that deserve to be in the BCS Championship game. That is why we need to have a mother****ing playoff. Oh and one thing about Les Miles the dude is lying when he said is staying at LSU he only said that so the players would no longer be distracted, by the end of the season he will leave to become Michigan's next head coach.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Eh, with Pellini gone now I would not be shocked if Michigan was waiting until January 8 to announce that Les Miles, coach of the "national" "champions" Louisiana State University Tigers is now the coach of the University of Michigan. It sounds pretty.
Overall, I ain't interested in a damn bowl besides the Orange and Armed Forces. Yay Air Force against Cal ^_^
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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OscarBlog for December 5 - NBR News
Here's The National Board of Review results!
Best Film: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Best Director: TIM BURTON, Sweeney Todd
Best Actor: GEORGE CLOONEY, Michael Clayton
Best Actress: JULIE CHRISTIE, Away From Her
Best Supporting Actor: CASEY AFFLECK, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Best Supporting Actress: AMY RYAN, Gone Baby Gone
Best Foreign Film: THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
Best Documentary: BODY OF WAR
Best Animated Feature: RATATOUILLE
Best Ensemble Cast: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: EMILE HIRSCH, Into The Wild
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: ELLEN PAGE, Juno
Best Directorial Debut: BEN AFFLECK, Gone Baby Gone
Best Original Screenplay (tie):
DIABLO CODY, Juno and NANCY OLIVER, Lars and the Real Girl
Best Adapted Screenplay: JOEL COEN and ETHAN COEN, No Country For Old Men
Top Ten Films:
(In alphabetical order)
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
ATONEMENT
THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
THE BUCKET LIST
INTO THE WILD
JUNO
THE KITE RUNNER
LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
MICHAEL CLAYTON
SWEENEY TODD
Top Five Foreign Films:
(In alphabetical order)
4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS, 2 DAYS
THE BAND’S VISIT
THE COUNTERFEITERS
LA VIE EN ROSE
LUST, CAUTION
Los Angeles and New York happen over the weekend, which should help solidify the race to be between No Country For Old Men and Atonement, although The Diving Bell And The Butterfly and Lust, Caution and Sweeny Todd could win any of those three (NYOnline Critics and NY Critics)
As it stands:
Best Picture
01 No Country For Old Men
02 Atonement
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03 Sweeny Todd
04 There Will Be Blood
05 The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
At large: Into The Wild
Best Director
01 Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
02 Tim Burton, Sweeny Todd
03 Ang Lee, Lust/Caution
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04 Joe Wright, Atonement
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05 Sidney Lumlet, Before The Devil even Knows You're There
At large: Todd Haynes, I'm Not There
Best Actor
01 Dainel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
02 James McAvoy, Atonement
03 George Clooney, Michael Clayton
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04 Tommy Lee Jones, in The Valley of Ellah
05 Johnny Depp, Sweeny Tood
At Large: Emile Hirsh, Into The Wild
Best Actress
01 Julie Cristie, Away From Her
02 Laura Linney, The Savages (for once she will get a damn nod)
03 Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
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04 Ellen Page, Juno
05 Amy Adams, Enchanted
At Large: Angelina Joile, A Mighty Heart
Best Supporting Actor
01 Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
02 Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
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03 Max Von Syndow, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
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04 Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
05 Russel Crowe, American Gangster
At Large: Ben Foster, 3:10 To Yuma
Best Supporting Actress
01 Helena Bohnam Carter, Sweeny Todd
01 Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There (joint Number Ones)
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03 Saiorse Ronan, Atonement
04 Nicole Kidman, The Golden Compass
05 Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
At large: Catherine Keener, Into The Wild
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 6/9/2002
Posts: 6,789
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I really hope There Will Be Blood gets a best picture nomination, but it's probably too different for the Academy. I hear that the first 20 minutes have no dialogue at all. so badass. P.T. Anderson ftw.
I also hope Walk Hard gets some well deserved Best Original Song nominations for either the title track or "Beautiful Ride". the movie may be goofy as **** (and by goofy I mean off-the-charts hilarious), but the songs for the movie are really well done.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Mikal Predicts The Grammy Winners
Record Of The Year
Irreplaceable, Beyoncé
The Pretender, Foo Fighters
Umbrella, Rihanna Featuring Jay-Z
What Goes Around…Comes Around, Justin Timberlake
Rehab, Amy Winehouse
I'd say this is a two song race between Rehab and Umbrella - they are the only 2 to score Song nods as well. The Pretender is the only dark horse.
Should Win: Rehab
Will Win: Umbrella - Ri and Amy are splitting the song sides
Album Of The Year
Echoes, Silence, Patience & Grace, Foo Fighters
These Days, Vince Gill
River: The Joni Letters, Herbie Hancock
Graduation, Kanye West
Back To Black, Amy Winehouse
This is an odd lot, since Vince's 4-disc lot isn't even the fave to win Country Album and Herbie scored one total nod. More than likely Kanye v Amy, since I personally founce Echoes etc. to be a rather aggravating mess of an album that tried to sound like a Foo's Greatest Hits set.
Should Win: Back To Black
Will Win: Back To Black
Song Of The Year
Before He Cheats, Josh Kear & Chris Tompkins, songwriters (Carrie Underwood)
Hey There Delilah, Tom Higgenson, songwriter (Plain White T's)
Like A Star, Corinne Bailey Rae, songwriter (Corinne Bailey Rae)
Rehab, Amy Winehouse, songwriter (Amy Winehouse)
Umbrella, Shawn Carter, Kuk Harrell, Terius "Dream" Nash & Christopher Stewart, songwriters (Rihanna Featuring Jay-Z)
Seriously Grammy people, are we just throwing darts at the end-of-year Billboard chart while remembering that pretty song Corinne did? BHC and HTD are easily the worst of the lot they've nodded in a long while and that includes the winning song from Ray Charles and Norah Jones that NO ONE HAD EVER HEARD OF!
Should Win: Like A Star
Will Win: Rehab
Best New Artist
Feist
Ledisi
Paramore
Taylor Swift
Amy Winehouse
Who is Ledisi?
Should Win: Amy Winehouse
Will Win: Feist
Best Female Pop Vocal Performance
Candyman, Christina Aguilera
1234, Feist
Big Girls Don't Cry, Fergie
Say It Right, Nelly Furtado
Rehab, Amy Winehouse
Christina may be in over her head on this category for a change. If it was "My Moon My Man" I'd peg Feist to win in a heartbeat but since it's not I doubt it.
Should Win: Amy Winehouse
Will Win: Nelly Furtado
Best Male Pop Vocal Performance
Everything, Michael Bublé
Belief, John Mayer
Dance Tonight, Paul McCartney
Amazing, Seal
What Goes Around...Comes Around, Justin Timberlake
Otherwise known as a bad year for male pop
Should Win: Paul McCartney
Will Win: Justin Timberlake
Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals
(You Want To) Make A Memory, Bon Jovi
Home, Daughtry
Makes Me Wonder, Maroon 5
Hey There Delilah, Plain White T's
Window In The Skies, U2
Oh my holy hell. Who the **** picked this category?!?!?!?! Worst. Noms. Ever.
Should Win: Like I give a ****, this category is ******. If forced, Maroon 5
Will Win: U2. Cuz the Grammys love some Bono ****
Best Pop Collaboration With Vocals
Steppin' Out, Tony Bennett & Christina Aguilera
Beautiful Liar, Beyoncé & Shakira
Gone Gone Gone (Done Moved On), Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
The Sweet Escape, Gwen Stefani & Akon
Give It To Me, Timbaland Featuring Nelly Furtado & Justin Timberlake
My eyes rolled out of my head somewhere. But it's not as bad as Pop Group.
Should Win: Robert Plant and Alison Krauss
Will Win: Tony Bennett and Christina Aguilera
Best Pop Vocal Album
Lost Highway, Bon Jovi
The Reminder, Feist
It Won't Be Soon Before Long, Maroon 5
Memory Almost Full, Paul McCartney
Back To Black, Amy Winehouse
So, Lily Allen was placed in Alt instead of pop why? And Feist v Amy again, I say.
Should Win: Actually, The Reminder. B2B is not so pop it's more Jazz
Will Win: Back To Black
Best Dance Recording
Do It Again, The Chemical Brothers
D.A.N.C.E., Justice
Love Today, Mika
Don't Stop The Music, Rihanna
LoveStoned/I Think She Knows, Justin Timberlake
DANCE is probably the odds on favorite to win as it does have all those MTV trophies. Mika and Rihanna are the main threats, since I can't see them giving Justin another Dance trophy
Should Win: Rihanna (sorry, I lurve the song)
Will Win: Justice
Best Electronic/Dance Album
We Are The Night, The Chemical Brothers
†, Justice
Sound Of Silver, LCD Soundsystem
We Are Pilots, Shiny Toy Guns
Elements Of Life, Tiësto
This is probably the hardest of the categories here since, ironically, they are all worthy winners.
Should Win: Sound of Silver
Will Win: †
Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album
Call Me Irresponsible, Michael Bublé
Cool Yule, Bette Midler
Trav'lin' Light, Queen Latifah
Live In Concert 2006, Barbra Streisand
James Taylor At Christmas, James Taylor
2 Christmas albums here, why?
Should Win: Trav'lin Through
Will Win: Call Me Irresponsible
Best Solo Rock Vocal Performance
Timebomb, Beck
Only Mama Knows, Paul McCartney
Our Country, John Mellencamp
Radio Nowhere, Bruce Springsteen
Come On, Lucinda Williams
Beck or Lucinda....Beck of Lucinda...so obviously it's Bruce.
Should Win: Beck
Will Win: Bruce Springsteen
Best Rock Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals
It's Not Over, Daughtry
Working Class Hero, Green Day
If Everyone Cared, Nickelback
Instant Karma, U2
Icky Thump, The White Stripes
And rivaling Pop Group in a level of crap. Thank Heavens for the White Stripes. Although if Green Day wins I won't shoot someone.
Should Win: White Stripes
Will Win: White Stripes
Best Hard Rock Performance
Sweet Sacrifice, Evanescence
The Pretender, Foo Fighters
I Don't Wanna Stop, Ozzy Osbourne
Sick, Sick, Sick, Queens Of The Stone Age
The Pot, Tool
Hm...
Should Win: Tool
Will Win: Foo Fighters
Best Rock Song
Come On, Lucinda Williams, songwriter (Lucinda Williams)
Icky Thump, Jack White, songwriter (The White Stripes)
It's Not Over, Chris Daughtry, Gregg Wattenberg, Mark Wilkerson & Brett Young, songwriters (Daughtry)
The Pretender, Dave Grohl, Taylor Hawkins, Nate Mendel & Chris Shiflett, songwriters (Foo Fighters)
Radio Nowhere, Bruce Springsteen, songwriter (Bruce Springsteen)
OK Grammy people, It's Not Over? Is Not Good. So Stop it!!!
Should Win: Come On
Will Win: Radio Nowhere
Best Rock Album
Daughtry, Daughtry
Revival, John Fogerty
Echoes, Silence, Patience & Grace, Foo Fighters
Magic, Bruce Springsteen
Sky Blue Sky, Wilco
I shall pray for the upset and Wilco scoring one for a change.
Should Win: Wilco
Will Win: Daughtry (just to ruin Bruce's night)
Best Alternative Music Album
Alright, Still..., Lily Allen
Neon Bible, Arcade Fire
Volta, Bjork
Wincing The Night Away, The Shins
Icky Thump, The White Stripes
But...but they all are good (although I dislike Arcade Fire immensely)...
Should Win: Icky Thump
Will Win: Neon Bible
Best Female R&B Vocal Performance
Just Fine, Mary J. Blige
When I See You, Fantasia
No One, Alicia Keys
If I Have My Way, Chrisette Michele
Hate On Me, Jill Scott
And how is "Just Fine" here?
Should Win: Jill Scott
Will Win: Alicia Keys
Best Male R&B Vocal Performance
Woman, Raheem DeVaughn
B.U.D.D.Y., Musiq Soulchild
Because Of You, Ne-Yo
Future Baby Mama, Prince
Please Don't Go, Tank
I'm stunned they recognized that Tank and Prince are still alive.
Should Win: Prince
Will Win: Ne-Yo
Best R&B Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals
Same Girl, R. Kelly Featuring Usher
Disrespectful, Chaka Khan Featuring Mary J. Blige
Hate That I Love You, Rihanna Featuring Ne-Yo
Baby, Angie Stone Featuring Betty Wright
Bartender, T-Pain Featuring Akon
If there are no duo or groups and you have to make up a collabo category, maybe you should scrap the category or just call i Best R&B Collaboration
Should Win: Chaka Khan and Mary J Blige
Will Win: R. Kelly and Usher
Best Urban/Alternative Performance
Make A Baby, Vikter Duplaix
That’s The Way Of The World, Dwele
Daydreamin', Lupe Fiasco Featuring Jill Scott
Fantasy, Meshell Ndegeocello
Dream, Alice Smith
Lupe or Meshell....of course, this could easily be an upset category
Should Win: Meshell Ndegeocello
Will Win: Lupe Fiasco
Best R&B Song
Beautiful Flower, India.Arie & Joyce Simpson, songwriters (India.Arie)
Hate That I Love You, M.S. Eriksen, T.E. Hermansen & Shaffer Smith, songwriters (Rihanna Featuring Ne-Yo)
No One, Dirty Harry, Kerry Brothers & Alicia Keys, songwriters (Alicia Keys)
Teachme, Ivan Barias, Adam W. Blackstone, Randall C. Bowland, Carvin Haggins, Johnnie Smith II & Corey Latif Williams, songwriters (Musiq Soulchild)
When I See U, Louis Biancaniello, Waynne Nugent, Erika Nuri, Kevin Risto, Janet Sewel & Sam Watters, songwriters (Fantasia)
Poor India.aire, they all take advantage of her sheer talent, lyricism and prettyness and give her a token nod.
Should Win: Beautiful Flower
Will Win: No One
Best R&B Album
Funk This, Chaka Khan
Lost & Found, Ledisi
Luvanmusiq, Musiq Soulchild
The Real Thing, Jill Scott
Sex, Love & Pain, Tank
In the Grown Up R&B category...we see this Ledisi thing no one has ever heard of.
Should Win: Jill Scott
Will Win: Chaka Khan
Best Contemporary R&B Album
Konvicted, Akon
Just Like You, Keyshia Cole
Fantasia, Fantasia
East Side Story, Emily King
Because Of You, Ne-Yo
Meanwhile in the Tennybopper R&B category...
Should Win: Fantasia
Will Win: Just Like You
Best Rap Solo Performance
The People, Common
I Get Money, 50 Cent
Show Me What You Got, Jay-Z
Big Things Poppin' (Do It), T.I.
Stronger, Kanye West
Huh, three good solo perfs and two big headed egomonsters. I guess Kanye has to win some.
Should Win: Common
Will Win: Kanye West
Best Rap Performance By A Duo Or Group
Southside, Common Featuring Kanye West
Make It Rain, Fat Joe Featuring Lil Wayne
Party Like A Rockstar, Shop Boyz
Int'l Players Anthem (I Choose You), UGK Featuring OutKast
Better Than I've Ever Been, Kanye West, Nas & KRS-One
Dear Rap Duo/Group, please see comments concering R&B Duo/Group
Should Win: Common f. Kanye West
Will Win: Common f. Kanye West
Best Rap/Sung Collaboration
I Wanna Love You, Akon Featuring Snoop Dogg
Kiss, Kiss, Chris Brown & T-Pain
Let It Go, Keyshia Cole Featuring Missy Elliott & Lil' Kim
Umbrella, Rihanna Featuring Jay-Z
Good Life, Kanye West Featuring T-Pain
Actually, I don't completely hate this category
Should Win: Kanye West f. T-Pain
Will Win: Rihanna f. Jay-Z
Best Rap Song
Ayo Technology, Nate (Danja) Hills, Curtis Jackson, Timothy Mosley & Justin Timberlake, songwriters (50 Cent Featuring Justin Timberlake & Timbaland)
Big Things Poppin' (Do It), Clifford Harris & Byron Thomas, songwriters (T.I.)
Can't Tell Me Nothing, A. Davis & Kanye West, songwriters (Kanye West)
Crank That (Soulja Boy), Soulja Boy Tell'Em, songwriter (Soulja Boy Tell'Em)
Good Life, A. Davis, F. Najm & K. West, songwriters (J. Ingram & Q. Jones, songwriters) (Kanye West Featuring T-Pain)
Good to see that the Grammy board has a sense of humor. Why else would "Cank That" be there.
Should Win: Can't Tell Me Nothing
Will Win: Big Things Poppin'
Best Rap Album
Finding Forever, Common
Kingdom Come, Jay-Z
Hip Hop Is Dead, Nas
T.I. vs T.I.P., T.I.
Graduation, Kanye West
Wow, a category I can support any of them winning! Of course, it would be nice to give Nas a solo nod, no?
Should Win: Hip Hop Is Dead
Will Win: Graduation
Best Female Country Vocal Performance
Simple Love, Alison Krauss
Famous In A Small Town, Miranda Lambert
Nothin' Better To Do, LeAnn Rimes
Before He Cheats, Carrie Underwood
Heaven, Heartache And The Power Of Love, Trisha Yearwood
If we ignore the evil psycho crappy blonde, this is a good category i could be happy with any winners. Since they ignored Miranda (grr...) I think Alison has th best shot of holding off She Who Makes Country As Bland As Her Hair Color.
Should Win: Alison Krauss
Will Win: duh, Carrie Underwood
Best Male Country Vocal Performance
Long Trip Alone, Dierks Bentley
A Woman's Love, Alan Jackson
If You're Reading This, Tim McGraw
Give It Away, George Strait
Stupid Boy, Keith Urban
The Grammys tend to like Tim but George has the best song of the lot...so I'm calling a surprise.
Should Win: George Strait
Will Win: Keith urban
Best Country Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocals
Proud Of The House We Built, Brooks & Dunn
How Long, Eagles
Moments, Emerson Drive
Lucky Man, Montgomery Gentry
Sweet Memories, The Time Jumpers
Who the hell are The Time Jumpers and what the **** is Emerson Drive doing here?
Should Win: Brooks & Dunn
Will Win: Emerson Drive (ewwwwwwwwwwwwww)
Best Country Collaboration With Vocals
Days Aren't Long Enough, Steve Earle & Allison Moorer
Because Of You, Reba McEntire & Kelly Clarkson
I Need You, Tim McGraw & Faith Hill
Lost Highway, Willie Nelson & Ray Price
Oh Love, Brad Paisley & Carrie Underwood
Brad did a song with Carrie??!!?!?!?
Should Win: Steve Earle & Allison Moorer
Will Win: Tim mcGraw & Faith Hill
Best Country Song
Before He Cheats, Josh Kear & Chris Tompkins, songwriters (Carrie Underwood)
Give It Away, Bill Anderson, Buddy Cannon & Jamey Johnson, songwriters (George Strait)
I Need You, Tony Lane & David Lee, songwriters (Tim McGraw & Faith Hill)
If You're Reading This, Tim McGraw, Brad Warren & Brett Warren, songwriters (Tim McGraw)
Long Trip Alone, Brett Beavers, Dierks Bentley & Steve Bogard, songwriters (Dierks Bentley)
DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE BEFORE HE CHEATS DIE DIE DIE NOW!!! Let's go Give It Away!
Should Win: Give It Away
Will Win: Give It Away
Best Country Album
Long Trip Alone, Dierks Bentley
These Days, Vince Gill
Let It Go, Tim McGraw
5th Gear, Brad Paisley
It Just Comes Natural, George Strait
See Vince has two album nods and won't win either
Should Win: It Just Comes Natural
Will Win: 5th Gear
Best Comedy Album
America's Mexican, George Lopez
Dirty Girl, Lisa Lampanelli
The Distant Future, Flight Of The Conchords
I Still Have A Pony, Steven Wright
Songs Pointed & Pointless, Harry Shearer
This should be between Lisa and George, but I suspect Steven Wright might take it.
Should Win: Dirty Girl
Will Win: I Still Have A Pony
Best Song Written For Motion Picture, Television Or Other Visual Media
Falling Slowly (From Once), Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova, songwriters (Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova)
Guaranteed (From Into The Wild), Eddie Vedder, songwriter (Eddie Vedder)
Love You I Do (From Dreamgirls), Siedah Garrett & Henry Krieger, songwriters (Jennifer Hudson)
The Song Of The Heart (From Happy Feet), Prince Rogers Nelson, songwriter (Prince)
You Know My Name (From Casino Royale), David Arnold & Chris Cornell, songwriters (Chris Cornell)
Flip a coin between Guaranteed and Love You I Do, I think
Should Win: Falling Slowly
Will Win: Guaranteed
Producer Of The Year, Non-Classical
Howard Benson (Daughtry, Mêlée, The Starting Line, Relient K, Sound The Alarm)
Joe Chiccarelli (Burden Brothers, Oxbow,Kurt Elling,The Shins)
Mike Elizondo (Maroon 5, Rilo Kiley)
Mark Ronson (Amy Winehouse,Lily Allen, Mark Ronson)
Timbaland (M.I.A. Featuring Timbaland, Timbaland Featuring Nelly Furtado & Justin Timberlake, Fabolous Featuring Ne-Yo, Timbaland Featuring Keri Hilson & D.O.E.) (S)
Looking at the reasons people got nodded, Howard Benson should be hung from his toes, as he's responsible for Daughtry. Mike Elizondo is bleh, and no one has heard of Chiccarelli. So between Timba and Ronson.
Should win: Mark Ronson
Will Win: Mark Ronson
Best Short Form Music Video
God's Gonna Cut You Down, Johnny Cash
1234, Feist
Gone Daddy Gone, Gnarls Barkley
D.A.N.C.E., Justice
Typical, Mute Math
Gnarls! Feist! ^_^
Should Win: Gnarls Barkley
Will Win: Justice
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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OscarUpdate - LA/NY/DC/BOS News
So, where to begin?
well, here's Boston
Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Actor: Frank Langella for Starting Out in the Evening
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard for La Vie En Rose
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone
Best Cinematography: Janusz Kaminski for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Screenplay: Brad Bird for Ratatouille
Best Documentary: Crazy Love
Then we had New York Critics Online
Best Picture: There Will Be Blood & The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Best Actress: Julie Christie for Away from Her
Director: PT Anderson for There Will Be Blood
Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There
Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men
Screenplay: Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola for The Darjeeling Limited
Documentary: Sicko
Foreign Language: The Lives of Others (Germany) & Persepolis (France)
Animated: Persepolis
Cinematography: Robert Elswit for There Will Be Blood
Top Ten Films:
1 Atonement (Focus Features)
2 Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (THINKFilm)
3 The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight)
4 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax)
5 I'm Not There (The Weinstein Company)
6 Juno (Fox Searchlight)
7 Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.)
8 No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
9 Persepolis (Sony Pictures Classics)
10 Sweeney Todd (DreamWorks)
11.There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage)
And then Los Angeles came out pro-Blood
BEST PICTURE
Winner: There Will Be Blood
Runner-Up: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
BEST DIRECTOR
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Runner-Up: Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
BEST ACTOR
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Runner-Up: Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening)
BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Runner-Up: Anamaria Marinca (4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Vlad Ivanov (4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days)
Runner-Up: Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)
Runner-Up: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
But also note they liked the Foreign Language favorite from Romania (4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days) especially as The Diving Bell (while the Cannes winner) is not the French entry.
However, DC chose to go back to the No Country
BEST PICTURE: No Country for Old Men
BEST DIRECTOR: Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
BEST ACTOR: George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
BEST ACTRESS: Julie Christie (Away from Her)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Diablo Cody (Juno)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Aaron Sorkin (Charlie Wilson's War)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Ratatouille
BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM: Sicko
So now we finally hit to New York Critics Circle
BEST FILM: No Country for Old Men
BEST DIRECTOR: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
BEST ACTRESS: Julie Christie (Away From Her)
BEST SUPPRTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
BEST SCREENPLAY: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
BEST DOCUMENTARY: No End in Sight
BEST FOREIGN FILM: The Lives of Others (Germany, won Oscar last year, so that's no help)
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Persepolis
So, we're somewhere around No Country For Old Men, Javier Bardem and Julie Christie as nearly "duh" lock status. Meanwhile, Ratatouille has a new challenger coming from France too. Marion Cotillard and George Clooney are rather close to locks as well. The Broadcast Crits announce their nods tomorrow so we shall see if this stays the same!
As it stands:
Best Picture
01 No Country For Old Men
02 Atonement
03 The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
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04 There Will Be Blood
05 Sweeny Todd
At large: Into The Wild
Best Director
01 Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
02 Tim Burton, Sweeny Todd
03 Ang Lee, Lust/Caution
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04 Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
05 Joe Wright, Atonement
At large: Sidney Lumlet, Before The Devil Knows You're There
Best Actor
01 Dainel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
02 James McAvoy, Atonement
03 George Clooney, Michael Clayton
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04 Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
05 Johnny Depp, Sweeny Tood
At Large: Tommy Lee Jones, in The Valley of Ellah
Best Actress
01 Julie Christie, Away From Her (OK, so she's moving into Dame Helen territory)
02 Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
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03 Laura Linney, The Savages
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04 Ellen Page, Juno
05 Amy Adams, Enchanted
At Large: Angelina Joile, A Mighty Heart
Best Supporting Actor
01 Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
02 Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
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03 Max Von Syndow, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
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04 Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
05 Russel Crowe, American Gangster
At Large: Ben Foster, 3:10 To Yuma
Best Supporting Actress
01 Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
02 Helena Bohnam Carter, Sweeny Todd
03 Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
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04 Saiorse Ronan, Atonement
05 Nicole Kidman, The Golden Compass
At large: Catherine Keener, Into The Wild
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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OscarUpdate - LA/NY/DC/BOS News
Two new updates:
San Francisco
Picture: The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
Director: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Actor: George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Actress: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Foreign Language: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
Documentary: No End in Sight
Screenplay: The Savages
Adapted Screenplay: Away From Her
Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
Meanwhile, the Broadcast Critics announced their nominees:
PICTURE
American Gangster
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
ACTOR
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Enchanted
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page - Juno
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Catherine Keener - Into the Wild
Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
ACTING ENSEMBLE
Hairspray
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
Gone Baby Gone
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
DIRECTOR
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Sidney Lumet - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Sean Penn - Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright - Atonement
WRITER
Diablo Cody - Juno
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Nancy Oliver - Lars and the Real Girl
Sean Penn - Into the Wild
Aaron Sorkin - Charlie Wilson's War
ANIMATED FEATURE
Bee Movie
Beowulf
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (not Oscar selected)
4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
La Vie en Rose (not Oscar selected)
Lust, Caution (not Oscar selected)
The Orphanage
The overall leader is Into The Wild at 7, which no one seems to know if they really think is Oscar-worthy, even if they like it. I'd say Viggo, Emile and Ryan are fighting to sneak in as a 5th nominee come Oscar-time since no one seems set to honor any of them, while Daniel and George are the ones getting the acclaim. Julie and Marion lead a good set, and I suspect that if you leave out Cate that this is the Best Actress list come the Oscars since Laura Linney IS STILL being ignored.
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Banned
Member Since: 2/5/2007
Posts: 7,024
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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So new news! Both Switzerland and Andorra are done with their process entirely.
* The Swiss are sending Paolo Meneguzzi, an Italian-Swiss (hint hint hint Italy) with his Italian (hint hint hint time to come back) song "Era Stupendo." Which I believe it translates to "It's Stupid" so that's funny.
* Andorra confirmes that Gisela, she who made Spain wonder why the **** they held Mision Eurovision and gets D'Nash, will be going to Belgrade. Her song, "Casanova" is already done and leaking on the net (30 second clip) and unlike the last 4 entries, it's all English. Anonymous did English and Catalan (Andorra's official language, since they are like neighbors with Barcelona) and considering they got to 12th, signs point to a maybe good try. Andorra also announced all they want is a spot in the finals, so they have the right aim for a nation never in the finals.
* Turkey has apparently invited Mor ve Ötesi to eb their entry and are expected to be required to perform in Turkish. Visions of Rimi Rimi Ley from Kyiv or the Czech entry from last year should be filling their head.
Belarus, Azerbaijan and Albania are getting set to start their shows - Albania this weekend, Belarus next weekend and the Azeri at the end of the year. Then we can start the massive regular run with Norway and Denmark semis on the same date as Cyprus' final - January 12.
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Member Since: 4/23/2007
Posts: 6,845
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wow i wish i was in europe...
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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The Most AMAZERING Post Ever Seen and GG Predictions
Firstly, I'm just gonna guess who will and should win the categories for the Golden Globes
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Should Win: ATONEMENT
Will Win: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Should AND Will Win: JULIE CHRISTIE — AWAY FROM HER
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Should Win: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS — THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Will Win: GEORGE CLOONEY — MICHAEL CLAYTON
BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Should AND Will Win: SWEENEY TODD
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Should AND Will Win: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Should Win: JOHNNY DEPP — SWEENEY TODD
Will Win: TOM HANKS — CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Should AND Will Win: RATATOUILLE
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should Win: THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY (FRANCE AND USA) AND (cuz I says so, there should be a tie) LUST, CAUTION (TAIWAN)
Will WIn: 4 MONTHS, 3 WEEKS AND 2 DAYS (ROMANIA)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Should Win: SAOIRSE RONAN — ATONEMENT
Will Win: AMY RYAN — GONE BABY GONE
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Should AND Will Win: JAVIER BARDEM —NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Should Win Based On Ads Alone: JOE WRIGHT — ATONEMENT
Will Win: TIM BURTON — SWEENEY TODD
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
Should Win: DIABLO CODY — JUNO
Will Win: ETHAN COEN & JOEL COEN — NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
Should Win: DARIO MARIANELLI — ATONEMENT
Will Win: MICHAEL BROOK, KAKI KING, EDDIE VEDDER — INTO THE WILD
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
Should AND Will Win: "GUARANTEED" — INTO THE WILD
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Should Win: DAMAGES (FX NETWORKS)
Will Win (but is also deserved): MAD MEN (AMC)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Should Win: MINNIE DRIVER - THE RICHES
Will Win: GLENN CLOSE - DAMAGES
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Should Win: JON HAMM - MAD MEN
Will Win: MICHAEL C. HALL - DEXTER
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Should Win: CALIFORNICATION (SHOWTIME)
Will Win: 30 ROCK (NBC)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES –COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Should Win: MARY-LOUISE PARKER - WEEDS
Will Win: AMERICA FERRERA - UGLY BETTY
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Should Win: DAVID DUCHOVNY - CALIFORNICATION
Will Win (but also deserved): RICKY GERVAIS - EXTRAS
BEST MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Should AND Will Win: BURY MY HEART AT WOUNDED KNEE (HBO)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Should AND Will Win: RUTH WILSON - JANE EYRE (MASTERPIECE THEATRE)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Should Win: JASON ISAACS - THE STATE WITHIN
Will Win: JIM BROADBENT - LONGFORD
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Should Win (by about a thousand miles, she totally kicked tail) ROSE BYRNE - DAMAGES
Will Win (but because she's become a sniveling bitch won't be there) KATHERINE HEIGL - GREY’S ANATOMY
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Should AND Will Win: TED DANSON - DAMAGES
And now, some funny. Thanks to this section of dlisted (involves some scrolling) we have the following: from "britscomingback" (not verified) on December 12, 2007 - 4:05pm.
Quote:
OKAY HERE Y'ALL GO AGAIN IN THIS CHAT TALKING BAD ABOUT HER IN THIS CHAT AGAIN WOW! OKAY FIRST OF ALL SHE IS A SINGER MOM AND KEVIN HAS THE KIDS HELLO! OKAY AND ALSO LET ME TELL YOU SOMETHING ANOTHER THING IS FAMOUS HELLO NO COURT! AND ANOTHER THING IS PEOPLE DO NEED SUGAR OR FOOD SUCH AS CHOCOLATE DRINKS AND NEW TACO TASTES OR HELLO TAX!! OKAY NOT TO MENTION ALSO THERE IS CNN TUBE OR VIDEOS SUCH AS TUNES #1 AND SHE DID NOT HAVE THAT GLASS NO DRIVING OR KIDS WOW! OKAY AND FIRST OF ALL SHE DID DO COURT AND NOW BUTT BURN PICTURES BECAUSE MOM EYES ALL BORING UP IN THE CEILING WALL PROBABLY! OKAY AND ALSO NOT TO MENTION THERE ARE SCARY TIMES NO WONDER NO COURT HELLO AND SHE CRIED MAYBE IN THAT STALL WHEN FLASHES SCREAM! GOD SO MAD RIGHT NOW ROLL EYES AND Y'ALL DON'T EVEN KNOW HER SHE DOES WEAR SOCKS MAYBE SOCK STOPS DO WORK YOU KNOW! AND ALSO CAN'T STOP HER AND Y'ALL ARE LIKE SOME RETARDED BLACKS IN A **** IT BUCKET! PROBABLY!
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Now, what should I use for the new siggy?
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Member Since: 9/15/2006
Posts: 27,205
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^great predictions.
ratatouille!
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Member Since: 6/25/2004
Posts: 18,867
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The GG look disappointing this year to me.
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Member Since: 6/22/2005
Posts: 6,931
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OMG, what the hell is that post? lmao.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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OscarBlog...A Year With No Oscar Comming?
Due to the following:
Quote:
LOS ANGELES (AP) - The union representing striking Hollywood writers has denied requests to allow their members to write for the Oscars and the Golden Globes.
The producers of the awards shows had asked the Writers Guild of America to waive a strike rule to allow writers to write for them.
The guild rejected the requests today, saying in a letter to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association that granting a waiver "would not advance" the union's ongoing battle with studios to negotiate a new contract.
It also rejected a request to use old movie clips for the Oscars in February.
Writers are in their seventh week of a costly strike.
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I'm going on record to predict there will be no Academy Awards or Golden Globes this year. At least on TV. I could easily see the Oscars just cancelling the show this year.
While I agree with the writers they should get more money and there needs to be a fair agreement over digital profits, I really do hope killing off award shows doesn't backfire in their faces and make the studios go all E! (E is non-union and can fire staff who even mention it) and remove the WGA as an entity.
Besides WGA, ya'll just decided to allow yourselves to work with individual studios and networks rather than the umbreall approach of attacking them all. So why not waive the award shows, yeesh -_-
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Member Since: 6/25/2004
Posts: 18,867
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It's no blow to me. Those are the boring award shows to me anyway.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Known Entries To Belgrade (4)
Switzerland - Paolo Meneguzzi, "Era Stupendo."
Andorra - Gisela - "Casanova"
Albania - after their song contest I'm going to ignore the conflict over what song won - the 7 jury vote was controversially finished as the winning song only won thanks to the last two jurors ignoring the runner up in terms of points, thus giving some cause to assume vote-rigging. The current planned entrant is Olta Boka with "Zemrën E Lamë Peng," which I think is a pretty song. One that has to be cut by a minute and a half yet again.
Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia surprised everyone by announcing their participant and song. They shall be sending Elvir Lakovic Laka (that's a guy) and his song "Pokusaj" While his other songs suck ass, he's popular in the Balkans and that could help depending on how many are drawn with BIH.
Known Contestants (5)
Israel - Bo'az Moudaz. Song picked at K'dam in February
Armenia - Sirusho
The Netherlands - Hind
Turkey - Mor ve Ötesi
The Ukraine - The Ukraine continue sending ladies, this time going with Ani Lorak. Her national final, with 6 songs, is set for March.
Known Finals Dates
Azerbaijan - supposedly this month. No clue if between now and Monday. Rumored to now be an internal pick from a private final.
Belarus - final announcement of their song (top 4 in Eurofest went through on the 15th) is set for January 21.
Belgium - the Finals for Eurosong is March 9, with the quarters starting in February.
Bulgaria - EuroBGvision final is February 23, with the semifinal showdown on January 26.
Croatia - The Dora is set for February 23
Cyprus - January 12
Denmark - The Danish Melodi Grand Prix is on February 2, with the semis beforehand.
Estonia - Eurolaul is also on February 2
Finland - Euroviisut is set for March 1 with the quarters and semis throughout February.
Georgia - looks to replace Sopho sometime in March.
Germany - Grand Prix Vorentscheid is on March 6. Tokio Hotel could still enter?
Greece - their National Final is set for February 27.
Hungary - is doing something in February
Iceland - Laugardagslögin is done with the early rounds and now take two months off. The Final is February 16.
Ireland - their Eurosong is set for February.
Latvia - Eirodziesma is March 1, with the semis a month before.
Macedonia FYR - Skopje Fest is on March 1
Malta - Malta Song for Europe is set on January 26, semis two days before.
Moldova - they are actually holding a n actual live final again in January. Last time they did they held it twice and we all got "Loca."
Norway - their Melodi Grand Prix is set for February 9
Poland - the Piosenka dla Europy is set for February 23
Portugal - they'll be using RTP da Canção, possibly with Operação Triunfo. When no one knows.
Romania - the Selecția Națională, hopefully full of DQs, is set for February 23.
Russia - going back to a National Final, Евровидение 2008 is set for March 9.
Serbia - Beovizija is on February 20 with the semifinals the day before.
Slovenia - the EMA is set for 1-3 February. Semis on days 1 and 2, Finals on day 3.
Sweden - Melodifestival, as is usually the case, is the final National Final, set for March 15.
er...
France - might be ditching the Et Si En Gagnat format for a proper final. Booo!
Lithuania - expected to be a National Final but after last year's confusion it's probably modified.
Montenegro - probably internal
San Marino - everyone is assuming internal selection
Spain - is expected to ditch Mision Eurovision and try a proper final again.
United Kingdom - it's still rumored to be Making Your Mind Up
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Member Since: 5/13/2007
Posts: 3,866
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I was hoping Malta would quit.....Such a waste of time and money.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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OscarWatch...Is There A Race?
So the continuation of press conferences occured today. I do wonder if this is how the Grammy's will go 9which would be most excellent :-p) Using those GGs and how the DGA went, I'm thinking this....
Best Picture
01 No Country For Old Men
02 Atonement
03 The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
04 There Will Be Blood
05 Sweeney Todd
At large: Juno
Juno loosing to Sweeney Todd might just finish the race, especially with Schnabel's win in Director and Atonement springing the trap on No Country.
Best Director
01 Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
02 Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
03 Tim Burton, Sweeny Todd
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04 Jason Reitman, Juno
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05 Joe Wright, Atonement
At large: Ang Lee, Lust/Caution
DGA ignore besides, I still think Atonement will get both, while Paul Thomas is the one left out. I wish Ang would get in but without a Foreign nod L?C is gonna be 2046 this year -_-
Best Actor
01 Dainel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
02 Johnny Depp, Sweeny Tood
03 George Clooney, Michael Clayton
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04 James McAvoy, Atonement
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05 Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
At Large: Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
SAG aside, I think Johnny is a lock and James is more of an in (Atonement needs a Lead nod for a shot). Frank is an oddball, as is Tommy Lee Jones for Ellah and stil Emile Hirsh. Viggo really needed an upset in Drama Actor to make it, I think. It could also be Phillip Seymore Hoffman for Before The Devil...
Best Actress
01 Julie Christie, Away From Her
02 Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
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03 Ellen Page, Juno
04 Angelina Joile, A Mighty Heart
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05 Amy Adams, Enchanted
At Large: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Considering everyone hated The Golden Age, why is Cate a serious threat for a double? Angelina is more of a lock as is Ellen but the race is still between a Brit and a French.The only other wildcard is if they move Helena up to Lead.
Best Supporting Actor
01 Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
02 Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
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03 Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
04 Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
05 Max Von Syndow, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
At Large: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men
For The Diving Bell to be a serious contender sans Foreign nod, it needs an acting nod. With no one deciding on anything past Javier, Max should sneak in but now I'm worried. Casey is in regardless. Now, if Tommy makes good on the SAG and wins, someone other than javier wins the Oscar cuz they are splitting it.
Best Supporting Actress
01 Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
02 Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
03 Helena Bohnam Carter, Sweeny Todd
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04 Saiorse Ronan, Atonement
05 Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
At large: Catherine Keener, Into The Wild
Yeah, glamour in Nic is gone (she'll look lovely with some pregnancy weight) in favor of Tilda, who's fun but is also sometimes scary as ****.
Notice the lack of Into The Wild love? Cuz even if the SAGs and the Crits loved it, it is still bombing otherwise. While I think they like it more for Sean Penn I doubt the Academy will swing to it.
Overall...I think There Will be Blood might score the most nods...probably 8. Atonement and No Country will get a lot of tech too and get around 7, while Sweeney Todd clicks in at 6. Diving Bell will score 5 as will Michael Clayton and Into The Wild (all those in the tech and la musica). Sleeper nods would be the Foreign pic frontrunner 43 Months, 3 weeks 2 days getting into screenplay and Persepolis getting Foreign and Animated nods, where it fights Ratatouille and Beowolf. Oh, and Foreign? Between 4 Months, Persepolis and The Orphanage alone it's gonna be about as good as last year's Pans/Lives Of Others fight.
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