Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season - Page 1031

Gee

Quote:

Originally posted by RatedG²

Do you part

But I can't @ people voting for Trump

. He won't win Texas methinks. Cruz fits that place locked up

I'll be voting Democrat in Nov. but I kind of want to vote Republican just to cancel out a Cruz vote.

I also want to cast my first vote ever for Hillary. I'm so conflicted

jpow

I think Cruz will take Texas. The Greg Abbott support must have some sort of positive effect for Cruz.

LuLuDrops

Quote:

Originally posted by jpow

I think Cruz will take Texas. The Greg Abbott support must have some sort of positive effect for Cruz.

Governors making the difference with the top 2. Nikki Haley teas.

Sasha.

Is Texas a winner takes all state in the republican primary? How many delegates are up for grabs in all states (republican side)?

TheLastChord

Hillary will snatch!

MAKSIM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sasha.

Is Texas a winner takes all state in the republican primary? How many delegates are up for grabs in all states (republican side)?

Winner take all states are only allowed after March 15th. Texas is proportional but there is a percentage cut off (i believe 20%). If a candidate doesn't get at least 20% then they do not get their portion of delegates. This could be fatal for Rubio's campaign since he is polling around 18/19 there.

jpow

Quote:

Originally posted by Sasha.

Is Texas a winner takes all state in the republican primary? How many delegates are up for grabs in all states (republican side)?

No it's not I believe. Those start March 15th.

---

Just saw my first Bernie Sanders commercial here in Texas. It might be too little too late for him however.

LuLuDrops

Quote:

Originally posted by MAKSIM

Winner take all states are only allowed after March 15th. Texas is proportional but there is a percentage cut off (i believe 20%). If a candidate doesn't get at least 20% then they do not get their portion of delegates. This could be fatal for Rubio's campaign since he is polling around 18/19 there.

Perched for Rubio's demise

Team_Avatar

Yeah, today's not gonna be pretty, on either side.

I will be keeping an eye on results through my hands, unprepared for the absolute bloodbath. Trump and Hillary are both gonna snatch aren't they ?

Mike91

Quote:

Originally posted by Team_Avatar

Yeah, today's not gonna be pretty, on either side.

I will be keeping an eye on results through my hands, unprepared for the absolute bloodbath. Trump and Hillary are both gonna snatch aren't they ?

Bernie can possibly win 5 states and come closer than expected in TX. It'll be very tough though.

Team_Avatar

I just don't know how far he can go if he doesn't kill Super Tuesday. The establishment have backed Hillary resoundingly with the superdelegates. I don't really know if there's much else he can do.

Hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised. I think the debate and discussion between the two is good for both of them. Bernie shows how the voters in this country will be trending, and Hillary is becoming more comfortable with her stances which will be necessary in the GE.

Moonchild

I'm nervous for the Senate races this year, too. The Senate is the most important part of the election after the White House. Hopefully, Trump will tank the down-ticket Republicans, and hopefully Maggie Hassan can snatch in New Hampshire.

MAKSIM

Quote:

Originally posted by MAKSIM

If the most recent polls are close to reality here is how many delegates each candidate would receive from super tuesday approx

Alabama:
Clinton-42
Sanders-18

Arkansas
Clinton-24
Sanders-13

Colorado
Clinton-35
Sanders-44

Georgia
Clinton-78
Sanders-38

Massachusetts
Clinton-64
Sanders-52

Minnesota
Clinton-46
Sanders-47

Oklahoma
Clinton-20
Sanders-22

Tennessee
Clinton-45
Sanders-31

Texas
Clinton-158
Sanders-94

Vermont
Clinton-0
Sanders-26

Virgina
Clinton-62
Sanders-48

Updated based on polling and momentum in the two caucus states. I gave Colorado to Sanders 55-45 and Minnesota have him edging it out by a bit even though the most recent polling for Minnesota gives Hillary a lead.
Prediction:
Clinton Total: ~574
Sanders Total- ~433

Clinton's target according to FiveThirtyEight is 458 delegates to still remain viable.
Sanders target according to FiveThirtyEight is 412 delegates to still remain viable.

With these results both candidates remain viable, but obviously the path for Sanders will be much tougher.

Sensation

I got my vote in for Hillary today

TOKYO.

Stop voting for Bernie, c'mon guys just bcuz u dont like Hilary. We don't know anything about this man..

LuLuDrops

So if there's no outright winner then when is the next chance for someone to completely microwave the competition for good?

Stoner

Voting today for Queen in Texas!

Mike91

Quote:

Originally posted by TOKYO.

Stop voting for Bernie, c'mon guys just bcuz u dont like Hilary. We don't know anything about this man..

.....

MAKSIM

Quote:

Originally posted by LuLuDrops

So if there's no outright winner then when is the next chance for someone to completely microwave the competition for good?

March 15th, March 8th will also be important to measure Bernie's force in Michigan.

accelgors

hm. local virginia correspondent here again!

i haven't been able to find any polls on how bernie vs hillary are doing in NOVA specifically yet. and if i'm going by 2008 election results (which are the best source i have because stupid virginia is secretive with this stuff >_>), 60% of voters in fairfax county voted democrat, and 70% of arlington did, and 57.5% in prince william did. 60% of fairfax is well over 600,000 people (which is still more people that in any other county in virginia), and i know less people will vote in primaries than general elections, but the percentage compared to the rest of virginia will probably be pretty similar.

the reason i'm mentioning this is because NOVA has a large percentage of the democrats in the entire state, so winning it is incredibly important for either bernie or hillary.

apparently bernie didn't campaign much in virginia, which i think, to be blunt, is pretty stupid. virginia has a ton of delegates and more democrat delegates than republican ones by a large margin and is a rapidly changing political climate so it can really help or hurt him. meanwhile, hillary went to both NOVA and hampton roads, which are both the two most populous areas in the state and the two biggest democrat bases. so that might give her an advantage.