Iowa's leaning red now on 538, Bernie will help in New Hampshire but I want Hillary to get all the swings a la 2008. No mercy
Missouri analysis: polls are still tight and their pick for Prez doesn't guarantee their pick for the Senate.
The top of the ticket may matter, too.
Trump leads Clinton in Missouri by a single point in two recent polls. That’s significantly below Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance in the state.
Yet Blunt’s lead in Missouri — and similar leads by other Republicans in other states — show many Republican and independent voters upset with Trump may be willing to split their tickets and vote for GOP candidates in down-ballot races.
“I don’t know that there’s going to be that much of a Trump effect when it comes to Blunt,” said Kimberly Casey, a political science professor at Northwest Missouri State University.
In fact, some political scientists think there may be a reverse-coattail effect: Republicans may not be able to pull the lever for Trump, they say, but may find it impossible to vote for a Democratic Senate candidate as well.
That could change if the Republican presidential nominee slips further in the polls later this fall, or if the Clinton campaign invests in Missouri to boost turnout and voter registration. A massive Missouri loss for Trump — say, five or six points — could put Kander in the Senate.
At the same time, a Clinton collapse in Missouri could depress Democratic turnout in urban areas, consultants in both parties said. That would hurt Kander’s campaign.
It’s a fierce game of chess, with little margin for error.
“I’m completely focused on doing what’s right for Missouri,” Kander said last week.
“I think I’ve got a record, and people can look at that,” Blunt said. “And if they don’t agree with it, and they think they’d like to have somebody else, that’s what elections are all about.”
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