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TV Show: Austria's Conchita wins Eurovision Song Contest 2014!
ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha Pieterse
I'm a conspiracy theorist (  ) and I believe that the EBU has some countries that they want to host, and some countries they do not want to host. NL and UK are both countries they want to host. If NL didn't win the semi/hype doesn't continue, they'll favor UK. If NL won the semi/hype continues, they'll favor NL.
Not sure if Hungary is a country they want to win, but I guess they can be thrown into the mix too. |
I wrote as much two months ago after the UK entry was released. It just seemed...odd that the old guard (sans France but even their half-assing it resulted in a good song) was trying for a change. I figure for the 60th anniversary of the contest they want somewhere West which is why I thought it would be the UK (more capital, plenty of venues, have hosted it the most anyways) was being set up as the EBU favorite.
I've rethought that since iTunes in countries that weren't even voting have NL so damn high. I suspect Netherlands won the semi (and probably won both the juries and televote, while thinking they only had the juries yesterday) and unless something wows tomorrow (and lets face it, while the second semi is better nothing really says "winner") I think it's going to be either the UK or Netherlands in a prime spot.
While Hungary, Sweden and Armenia are still obviously in the mix, I think the top 3 will shake out between Netherlands, UK and Denmark. But watch out for Malta, it's sitting there as a tempting target and if anyone really wants to host, it's them and they have the right kind of feel good entry to cause damage.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 20,070
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Quote:
Originally posted by geo
The winner will depend on the east. If they give CATS enough points I think they have it in the bag. If they do a Birds on it though they have no chance, even if they get a lot of 12's from the Nordics/west.
I'd be so happy with NL winning though, they'd make great hosts  I just hope we wouldn't end up with a bunch of ripoffs in 2015. |
basically
a part of me is happy that a lot of the balkans are missing, because that means the east has less impact on the results 
but you're completely right, the eastern countries are the key.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha Pieterse
basically
a part of me is happy that a lot of the balkans are missing, because that means the east has less impact on the results
but you're completely right, the eastern countries are the key. |
Well if the rumor is true that Russia did everything possible to give their 12 to San Marino then Maybe will have a shocking upset.
I keep forgetting Romania is also in the mix but I hate hate hate hate hate that song and apparently they have yet to have one clean performance with the hologram involved.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 20,070
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mikal
I wrote as much two months ago after the UK entry was released. It just seemed...odd that the old guard (sans France but even their half-assing it resulted in a good song) was trying for a change. I figure for the 60th anniversary of the contest they want somewhere West which is why I thought it would be the UK (more capital, plenty of venues, have hosted it the most anyways) was being set up as the EBU favorite.
I've rethought that since iTunes in countries that weren't even voting have NL so damn high. I suspect Netherlands won the semi (and probably won both the juries and televote, while thinking they only had the juries yesterday) and unless something wows tomorrow (and lets face it, while the second semi is better nothing really says "winner") I think it's going to be either the UK or Netherlands in a prime spot.
While Hungary, Sweden and Armenia are still obviously in the mix, I think the top 3 will shake out between Netherlands, UK and Denmark. But watch out for Malta, it's sitting there as a tempting target and if anyone really wants to host, it's them and they have the right kind of feel good entry to cause damage.
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 I agree with everything.
Especially Malta. Give them a good draw and it could happen, they did really well last year with a bad draw.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 20,070
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mikal
Well if the rumor is true that Russia did everything possible to give their 12 to San Marino then Maybe will have a shocking upset.
I keep forgetting Romania is also in the mix but I hate hate hate hate hate that song and apparently they have yet to have one clean performance with the hologram involved.
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I haven't had Romania as a contender at all. Ever. When they were first in the NF, people kept saying the song was amazing and it sounded like a winner. I listened to it and it made me want to gag, it's just trash. I can't see any sane person voting for this - especially not the juries.
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Member Since: 11/30/2011
Posts: 2,986
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I don't think the EBU will try to sabotage the UK in favour of NL. There's enough discontent towards the contest here as it is, the last thing we need is to get a worse result than expected when we're actually trying. The BBC would probably go back to sending hasbeens, interest would dwindle and we'd end up withdrawing.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha Pieterse
I haven't had Romania as a contender at all. Ever. When they were first in the NF, people kept saying the song was amazing and it sounded like a winner. I listened to it and it made me want to gag, it's just trash. I can't see any sane person voting for this - especially not the juries.
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Right now Romania's betting the house that the altered hologram (it's entirely different than the NF) works right to get votes. It's a neat trick but the song is horribly dated and everything else about the performance is garbage.
And people will soak it up -_-
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 20,070
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Quote:
Originally posted by geo
I don't think the EBU will try to sabotage the UK in favour of NL. There's enough discontent towards the contest here as it is, the last thing we need is to get a worse result than expected when we're actually trying. The BBC would probably go back to sending hasbeens, interest would dwindle and we'd end up withdrawing.
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I don't think they'll sabotage either country, but they'll be forced to give either UK, NL or Hungary the edge.
Quote:
Originally posted by Mikal
Right now Romania's betting the house that the altered hologram (it's entirely different than the NF) works right to get votes. It's a neat trick but the song is horribly dated and everything else about the performance is garbage.
And people will soak it up -_-
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If Romania had a worse draw in the semi, I think it could've been Estonia'd. Unfortunately that's out of the question now, but it won't do well in the final either imo. I can see a Cascada like result for them.
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Member Since: 9/17/2011
Posts: 5,996
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From 17-22. That's the perfect draw for the winner.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/24/2001
Posts: 10,763
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha Pieterse
I don't think they'll sabotage either country, but they'll be forced to give either UK, NL or Hungary the edge.
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Pretty much this. I guess they could go 17/18/19 and it would be interesting (since I'm no fan of Hungary I'd be annoyed) but DR and the EBU will shuffle this around to suggest some songs are preferred. Just not in an overt way.
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Member Since: 7/13/2010
Posts: 11,566
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Was anyone else disgusted when the audience boo'ed the Russian girls? I thought that was such a really low-blow way of protesting. Why try to ruin a moment for two 17 year old girls with no attachment to foreign policy.
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Member Since: 11/30/2011
Posts: 2,986
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha Pieterse
I don't think they'll sabotage either country, but they'll be forced to give either UK, NL or Hungary the edge.
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I don't think Hungary would win from any draw to be honest, interest seems to be low after the semi.
The UK is a much more influential country in the EBU than NL so if we're being cynical it would definitely have to be the UK that they'll favour. Especially as the BBC seem to be actually going for the win now.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 20,070
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Quote:
Originally posted by L/\DY G/\G/\
Was anyone else disgusted when the audience boo'ed the Russian girls? I thought that was such a really low-blow way of protesting. Why try to ruin a moment for two 17 year old girls with no attachment to foreign policy.
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Yep, it was terrible. I read that they cried backstage on their way to the press conference, that's sickening.
Quote:
Originally posted by geo
I don't think Hungary would win from any draw to be honest, interest seems to be low after the semi.
The UK is a much more influential country in the EBU than NL so if we're being cynical it would definitely have to be the UK that they'll favour. Especially as the BBC seem to be actually going for the win now.
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Could be. If I were in the EBU, I would look at how NL did in the semi. If they won convincingly, then I'd push for a dutch victory tbh. They have no idea how UK will fare with juries and televoting, and pushing them over NL could mean that somebody else entirely wins.
I feel like this is going to drive me insane until Saturday.
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Member Since: 9/17/2011
Posts: 5,996
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As ivi said, it was more fun and actually "fair" when they used to pick the actual number out of nowhere. I really hope they get back to this next year.
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Member Since: 11/30/2011
Posts: 2,986
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha Pieterse
Yep, it was terrible. I read that they cried backstage on their way to the press conference, that's sickening.
Could be. If I were in the EBU, I would look at how NL did in the semi. If they won convincingly, then I'd push for a dutch victory tbh. They have no idea how UK will fare with juries and televoting, and pushing them over NL could mean that somebody else entirely wins.
I feel like this is going to drive me insane until Saturday. |
As you say they're not going to sabotage one, so if the one they're favouring fails then there's always the other to fall back on.
I think NL around 18/19 and UK around 20/21 is a good bet.
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Member Since: 1/28/2012
Posts: 11,237
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imagine the contest hosted by san marino
a mess
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Member Since: 4/15/2011
Posts: 6,446
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha Pieterse
Absolutely, I think Denmark is a strong contender, but I'll need to see what happens after semi 2 and with the draw before I can feel confident that they can pull it off.
I guess it all depends on how EBU wants to play things. Let's assume that no other country creates a hype after semi 2 the way NL did now.
Did NL win the semi? Will NL's hype last until tomorrow? Does EBU prefer UK, NL or Hungary as the potiential winner (since they can't put them back to back, they'll have to favor one of them with the draw, the question is who it'll be)?
If NL won the semi, if NL's hype will continue, if the EBU feels like NL is a good winner, then I can easily see UK getting either #25 or #26. To your average viewer that seems like a great draw, but statistically we know it's not. Meanwhile NL gets a pimp spot. I can totally see that happening.
I'm a conspiracy theorist ( ) and I believe that the EBU has some countries that they want to host, and some countries they do not want to host. NL and UK are both countries they want to host. If NL didn't win the semi/hype doesn't continue, they'll favor UK. If NL won the semi/hype continues, they'll favor NL.
Not sure if Hungary is a country they want to win, but I guess they can be thrown into the mix too. |
Of course. Maybe I'm being a little crazy but I've stopped viewing Eurovision as a contest to see which song is the best based on viewer votes, but rather more of as a rigged contest in which some countries are favoured much more than other countries to win.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 20,070
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Quote:
Originally posted by geo
As you say they're not going to sabotage one, so if the one they're favouring fails then there's always the other to fall back on.
I think NL around 18/19 and UK around 20/21 is a good bet.
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True!
Quote:
Originally posted by Alpha
imagine the contest hosted by san marino
a mess
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Won't happen so no worries lol
Quote:
Originally posted by effie593
Of course. Maybe I'm being a little crazy but I've stopped viewing Eurovision as a contest to see which song is the best based on viewer votes, but rather more of as a rigged contest in which some countries are favoured much more than other countries to win.
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Yep, I don't look at it and think "wow the best song really wins!" anymore, it's a matter of which EBU approved country has the best song.
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Member Since: 4/15/2011
Posts: 6,446
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha Pieterse
True!
Won't happen so no worries lol
Yep, I don't look at it and think "wow the best song really wins!" anymore, it's a matter of which EBU approved country has the best song.
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Exactly. It's sad really. Oh well, I still watch it to enjoy the performances regardless.
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Member Since: 1/28/2012
Posts: 11,237
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha Pieterse
Won't happen so no worries lol
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