It doesn't matter if the cover outpeaks the original. That #9 peak on the Billboard Hot 100 of Toxic doesn't represent how successful was that song on 2004.
If OG is to hit #1, they need to haul ass with the video and the promo, b/c the more it sells, the harder it will be to go #1.
I think the chances are pretty low at this point... Bruno is still impressions ahead of her & selling more, "Like A G6" is also slightly ahead in airplay + obviously selling more. Not to mention, BEP's single is due in a week's time and they waste no time releasing digitally.