With 4 Minutes she had Justin Timberlake and Timbaland (who were bigger at the time than Nicki is now) and the song was quite radio friendly compared to how Hung Up was in 2005.
If I remember 4 Minutes went to #1 on iTunes, but it got to #3 on the Hot 100.
I agree though. It's difficult to tell. Things have changed a lot since 2008. 4 Minutes would probably flop in 2012, since songs with lots of drums don't do well in the chart anymore. Although I think Hung Up would've been a much bigger hit in 2012 than it was in 2005. I'm talking US charts though, Hung Up and 4 Minutes were both massive everywhere else in the world.
Of course this time she has the Super Bowl. That's the main factor that pushes this to possible #1 territory. Last year's had an average audience of 111 million throughout the entire show, with 162.9 million unique viewers tuning in. She just needs a small fraction of that viewership to go and buy the song.
1. Titanium (feat. Sia) - David Guetta
2. Domino - Jessie J
3. Twilight - Cover Drive
4. Alone Again (UK Radio Edit) - Alyssa Reid
5. Wild Ones (feat. Sia) - Flo Rida
6. Somebody That I Used to Know (feat. Kimbra) - Gotye
7. Mama Do the Hump - Rizzle Kicks
8. What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger) - Kelly Clarkson
9. Good Feeling - Flo Rida
10. Earthquake (Full Version) - Labrinth
11. Kiss The Stars - Pixie Lott
12. International Love (feat. Chris Brown) - Pitbull
13. Paradise - Coldplay
14. Born to Die - Lana Del Rey
15. Antidote (Radio Edit) - Swedish House Mafia & Knife Party
9 LMFAO - Sexy and I Know It 0.4557 10 Rihanna - We Found Love (feat. Calvin Harris) 0.4446 11 Gym Class Heroes - Ass Back Home (feat. Neon Hitch) 0.3678
12 Drake - The Motto (feat. Lil Wayne) [Bonus Track] 0.3536
Drake, Weezy, GCH & Neon Hitch still patiently waiting their turn
Although I think Hung Up would've been a much bigger hit in 2012 than it was in 2005. I'm talking US charts though, Hung Up and 4 Minutes were both massive everywhere else in the world.
