All the Nate hate on here is so silly. As he stated in last night's 538 podcast, Hill is down this week, but she's still certainly ahead.
We don't know which model is right (though Nate is an outlier right now), but I do know that he's very clickbaity with his headlines. He's a statistician, not a political scientist. His punditry is terrible.
I like Sam Wang more than Nate Silver---he's not in it for the headlines. That said 100% is ridic. Nothing is ever 100%. His model accounts for absolutely no uncertainty. If Silver's model is overreactive Wang's is underreactive.
I like Sam Wang more than Nate Silver---he's not in it for the headlines. That said 100% is ridic. Nothing is ever 100%. His model accounts for absolutely no uncertainty. If Silver's model is overreactive Wang's is underreactive.
I prefer Nate Cohn's model above all.
Actually, he has a note that says the Bayesian probability should say >99%, not 100%.
I'm sure he, like several others, will adjust according to the final raw vote in some places. Imagine, over 60% of a state has voted with one party just running away with it and unaffiliateds not being enough enough to change the outcome - of course his model would put whatever party ahead in the end. It's how some pollsters escape lashings
Ready for Trump to post one of those dramatic pictures of the New Hampshire poll saying "thank you New Hampshire." Also, despite everything he has never led a national poll--that's telling
You don't need to win a national poll to win the election
It's pretty obvious Hillary is leading national polls when she has such huge leads in populous states like CA and NY. That automatically skews the numbers in her favor
You don't need to win a national poll to win the election
It's pretty obvious Hillary is leading national polls when she has such huge leads in populous states like CA and NY. That automatically skews the numbers in her favor
But the EC votes are assigned by population so it's not really as big a skew as you're implying
Kelly Con said it makes her emotional because after Trump wins, people will look back on his campaign and America will appreciate how much Trump and his family have made enormous "sacrifices" to run for president
So sick of hearing about early voting. It's always going to favor dems
I live in Michigan and the entire 30 mile radius of me is littered with Trump signs everywhere. People are planning voting parties left and right. Sign that his day of voting will pull through?
I only rebut because I know some people here will see this post and panic.
