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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016
Member Since: 10/16/2005
Posts: 16,872
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Member Since: 10/17/2009
Posts: 5,464
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Clinton/Warren '16 or Clinton/Hickenlooper '16, please! Make it happen, Hill!
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 23,857
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Someone give me the deets on Hickenlooper?
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
I don't think Quinnipiac was a mistake. They do have good data points and if you compare previous editions of the same poll it shows a Clinton lead fading, as every other pollster shows. It's giving the same trend. Remember Quinnipiac has an A- rating as a pollster so clearly they know what they're doing
Trump is doing better, that's no lie.
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I'm sorry. But I think you're completely wrong. Quinnipiac is always conservative with their polling for some reason. It's always close when it's not. As one of the users said, it's harder to sample Latinos so that pollster did not sample enough of them in Florida. The poll was taken from the last day of June to the 2nd week of July (that's a long stretch so it becomes more inaccurate).
Trump is not killing it. One poll does not trump the other 6 released polls that gave another narrative. And Hillary's camp still isn't pushing ads in Pennsylvania, so I assume their internal polling suggests she is still favored to win.
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Member Since: 10/17/2009
Posts: 5,464
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dessy Fenix
Someone give me the deets on Hickenlooper?
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Popular two term governor of Colorado, former mayor of Denver, fierce advocate of gun control, he's also a geologist and owns a micro brewery. Seems very personable, and very intelligent.
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Member Since: 2/20/2012
Posts: 24,225
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Quote:
Originally posted by Lose My Breath
What is that Trump and Pence logo?  |
It is... brilliant.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
I'm sorry. But I think you're completely wrong. Quinnipiac is always conservative with their polling for some reason. It's always close when it's not. As one of the users said, it's harder to sample Latinos so that pollster did not sample enough of them in Florida. The poll was taken from the last day of June to the 2nd week of July (that's a long stretch so it becomes more inaccurate).
Trump is not killing it. One poll does not trump the other 6 released polls that gave another narrative. And Hillary's camp still isn't pushing ads in Pennsylvania, so I assume their internal polling suggests she is still favored to win.
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It's an A- rated pollster. Come on now, all primary season long we've been using those ratings to judge how much we should read into pollsters. No time to make exceptions just because it doesn't spell good news for your particular candidate
She's losing ground. Every pollster is showing that. It's okay. The average still has her up so its nothing to worry about but no need to discount a highly rated pollster over claims like that. Their methodology is fine.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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The more I think about it, the more I like the sound of Hickenlooper.
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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LIZZY HA COMEBACK! 
I wonder if Kaine ruined his chances yesterday.
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Member Since: 9/13/2012
Posts: 7,285
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Quinnipiac was the least-accurate poll in the 2012 election. They are known for over sampling Republicans
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Member Since: 9/13/2012
Posts: 7,285
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Quote:
Originally posted by chilicheese01
It is... brilliant.
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It's really not considering everything Pence has done to discriminate against gay people and make it legal for people to treat them as second-class citizens.
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Member Since: 10/17/2009
Posts: 5,464
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Quote:
Originally posted by hellocory
It's really not considering everything Pence has done to discriminate against gay people and make it legal for people to treat them as second-class citizens.
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And he passed one of, if not the most, restrictive bills in the country chipping away at a woman's right to choose. He wants Planned Parenthood defunded, abortion outlawed, gay marriage illegal again, and wants to make sure gays can be fired for being gay, denied services for being gay, denied being able to adopt for being gay. He's despicable.
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Member Since: 10/17/2009
Posts: 5,464
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
LIZZY HA COMEBACK!
I wonder if Kaine ruined his chances yesterday. |
Hopefully! I really hope her team is reading things online and are aware of how liberals think Kaine would be by far the most uninspired choice.
Robby Mook, if you're reading this, tell Hill to pick Warren, Hickenlooper, or Becerra! Thanks! 
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
LIZZY HA COMEBACK!
I wonder if Kaine ruined his chances yesterday. |
 . Idk I still feel like Hillary likes boring and run of the mill. But eh, we will see. Some sites are reporting that she'll introduce her VP late next week
Quote:
Originally posted by hellocory
Quinnipiac was the least-accurate poll in the 2012 election. They are known for over sampling Republicans
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It was not. Not even close actually. In 2012, Quinnipiac was among one of the best and more accurate pollsters, having an average error of 2.3 percentage points and, surprisingly, a slight democratic lean.
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Member Since: 10/17/2009
Posts: 5,464
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She'll obviously announce her VP pick next Friday or Saturday. After the GOP convention finishes Thursday night, and before the Democratic convention starts on Monday. It won't be Sunday, though, 'cause then they'd waste a day or two of potential media coverage, and it's the slowest news day.
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Member Since: 10/17/2009
Posts: 5,464
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Oh and regardless of how they did in 2012, Nate Silver himself said this week that so far in this race, Quinnipiac has had a republican lean of almost 4 points.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Quote:
Originally posted by ShineOverShadow
Oh and regardless of how they did in 2012, Nate Silver himself said this week that so far in this race, Quinnipiac has had a republican lean of almost 4 points.
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Also: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-bu...lorida/2285285
Quote:
Quinnipiac has a decidedly mixed track record in Florida and tendancy to show nonsensically big swings in public opinion. We in the Florida political media probably give it more attention than its record and methodology merit.
...In 2012, the Q poll was a total dumpster fire in Florida. In May, Q held a press call and basically declared the state for Romney, showing us -6. Then the next four polls were Obama +4, Obama +6, Obama +9 and Obama +1, while at the same time, the race remained exceptionally constant. Over the same time, the RCP average in Florida went from Obama -1.4 to Obama -1.7.
In 2008, they weren't much better. They had about 12 point swing between May and September....
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Radiance
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Eh. Because we can't judge how accurate Quinnipiac polling was between May-September because the election isn't between then, doesn't seem fair
But, using Florida, their last poll before the 2012 election showed 48% Obama 47% Romney. Actual result was 50-49 Obama over Romney. In 2008 it was 47 Obama 45 McCain. End result was 50-48.
They're not some bad pollster, they don't have their good rating for no reason. She doesn't win, or even need to win, every poll and that's okay.
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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You're trying so hard to defend one poll when the others disagree. It's like you want Trump to beat Hillary. Every time a poll favors him you're so quick to say it's accurate.
I've watched Quinnipiac polls since this election cycle started, and they have been wrong the most. Along with YouGov. I despise those two so much. And it's not just cuz I'm biased for Hillary. Even when it comes to Obama's approval ratings is he doing worse than other pollsters.
I'm not mad at the poll because she's losing, I'm just not trusting it when five other great pollsters have her up. And no one should be believing Hillary is down in Florida to Trump. Ohio? Yes, they might be on the mark there. I still stick by my claim that it's harder to reach Hispanics. And that's for every single pollster. It's why her leads in Califronia were bigger than what the polls said.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
Eh. Because we can't judge how accurate Quinnipiac polling was between May-September because the election isn't between then, doesn't seem fair
But, using Florida, their last poll before the 2012 election showed 48% Obama 47% Romney. Actual result was 50-49 Obama over Romney. In 2008 it was 47 Obama 45 McCain. End result was 50-48.
They're not some bad pollster, they don't have their good rating for no reason. She doesn't win, or even need to win, every poll and that's okay. |
No one's saying Q is a bad pollster. But we are right to question the results when they show a 12 pt swing without big movement on national polls, and have a history of being inaccurate in sampling the Latino demographic.
We need to look at polling aggregates, and although Hillary is seeing her margins narrow, most polls show her still ahead.
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