Well I already provided information on Asian Americans, who have good favorable numbers for Hillary and abysmal numbers for Trump. Then there's the obvious African American vote, and the pretty-easy-to-deduce Hispanic vote. All I need is the white vote and polls for them to see where this could go.
Yeah but the minorities have to make up a good chunk of the electorate. It doesn't matter if she wins all of those groups (let's say 95-5) if they're less than 10% of the overall electorate .
Yeah but the minorities have to make up a good chunk of the electorate. It doesn't matter if she wins all of those groups (let's say 95-5) if they're less than 10% of the overall electorate .
But we already have really solid historical turnout data and trends, there's no reason to think minorities would suddenly just not turn out. They comprised 30.3% of the electorate in 2012; with faster-rising populations and potentially more motivated turnout thanks to Trump, that number is more likely to rise than to fall.
Even if they maintained their same shares of each demographic from 2012, white turnout could rise six percent and every other demographic could decrease by five percent turnout and the Democrat would still win.
You guys are really underestimating Trump and so is the media. Idk how many times Trump has to prove everyone wrong, but whatever
There's no underestimation occurring here. Reasonable demographic analysis is occurring, and that's the most consistently reliable method of projecting election results.
He's a weak candidate, that's all there is to it. Attitude, media portrayal, attention - it gets you so far, and perhaps more so during primaries, but only so far, and then it stops. It is simply not likely for Trump to win the general election. In fact, it is more than likely that Hillary will have a comfortable victory on the big night, especially if polls and media continue to push this awful "tight race" narrative and scare Democrats into better turnout.
All you have to do is look at the Democratic race to understand this. Even when the race "tightened" in national polls, the state polls and even more accurately the demographics indicated a comfortable Hillary victory, and that is what we are seeing right now.
Men lie, women lie - statistical analyses of demographic attitudes and trends don't!
There's no underestimation occurring here. Reasonable demographic analysis is occurring, and that's the most consistently reliable method of projecting election results.
He's a weak candidate, that's all there is to it. Attitude, media portrayal, attention - it gets you so far, and perhaps more so during primaries, but only so far, and then it stops. It is simply not likely for Trump to win the general election. In fact, it is more than likely that Hillary will have a comfortable victory on the big night, especially if polls and media continue to push this awful "tight race" narrative and scare Democrats into better turnout.
All you have to do is look at the Democratic race to understand this. Even when the race "tightened" in national polls, the state polls and even more accurately the demographics indicated a comfortable Hillary victory, and that is what we are seeing right now.
Men lie, women lie - statistical analyses of demographic attitudes and trends don't!
You can analyze this up and down, but Trump is so unpredictable that everything gets thrown out the window. That's why pundits have been so wrong for 10 months straight. If u want to believe Hillary will win big win then don't mind me, I'm just saying I wouldn't
You can analyze this up and down, but Trump is so unpredictable that everything gets thrown out the window. That's why pundits have been so wrong for 10 months straight. If u want to believe Hillary will win big win then don't mind me, I'm just saying I wouldn't
Sister, you can use all the lines and soundbites about him that you want. I don't care. They mean nothing. He has been the top-polling Republican since July of last year - ten months ago. Ten months ago we first saw indications that he would win, and those were very right. Demographics have been right on both sides.
Believe what you want and don't mind me - I'm just saying that the facts trump Trump.
"You're rubbing salt in the Bernie supporters wounds" it's just so reminiscent of little children I just don't get it. I don't. It's mind boggling.
I won't generalize this to all Sanders supporters, but what irritates me so much about this attitude is that she hasn't lied a single time. If they have an issue with the Truth, then that's something far more concerning than Hillary "bragging."
"Isn't that disrespectful to Senator Sanders?" Absolutely ridiculous. ****ing insane.
Who here is from a state (name it) that hasn't voted in primaries and what is your local media painting the picture of the winner as?
California and the media is saying Clinton will win, but in my poli Sci class every single one is a Bernie supporter and there's 100 of us. Even the teacher is. Also at work I talk politics to only 4 people and all 4 are Bernie supporters, so I think it will close, considering I bet half won't vote
California and the media is saying Clinton will win, but in my poli Sci class every single one is a Bernie supporter and there's 100 of us. Even the teacher is. Also at work I talk politics to only 4 people and all 4 are Bernie supporters, so I think it will close, considering I bet half won't vote
Everyone in my Poli Sci class is supporting Bernie too, including the teacher (except for me, I'm the only one who is Team Trump). Outside of ATRL, Hillary has no fans.
Everyone in my Poli Sci class is supporting Bernie too, including the teacher (except for me, I'm the only one who is Team Trump). Outside of ATRL, Hillary has no fans.
Omg we're like the same I'm the only trump supporter. It's so annoying because my teacher will say things insinuating students to protest Trump.
California and the media is saying Clinton will win, but in my poli Sci class every single one is a Bernie supporter and there's 100 of us. Even the teacher is. Also at work I talk politics to only 4 people and all 4 are Bernie supporters, so I think it will close, considering I bet half won't vote
Quote:
Originally posted by Jolie's Lips
Everyone in my Poli Sci class is supporting Bernie too, including the teacher (except for me, I'm the only one who is Team Trump). Outside of ATRL, Hillary has no fans.
.
I just don't get it. I don't. It's mind boggling.
