Quote:
Originally posted by BORNTOSLAY
Is this true?
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It's true, yet it's inaccurate.
This graphic is trying to claim that the lead is no big deal and Bernie can easily recover which is not true. If this were a Republican race, where there are big winner-take-all states, then sure. But it's not. Each state's delegates are allocated to the candidates proportionally. That means, for Bernie to be able to catch up he needs to win the upcoming states by big margins to make up the difference. He may lead in the upcoming states, but it is
close. That means he won't have much of a net gain from state to state and that's the important aspect that this graphic fails to acknowledge.
The Democratic primary using 100% proportional allocation means that once you are far behind in delegates (and over 320 pledged delegates is well beyond far behind), it is immensely difficult to catch up. The most important states from now on are California (475), New York (247), and Pennsylvania (189)... The numbers are the number of pledged delegates up for grabs in those states.
Hillary has a MASSIVE lead in New York (where she served as Senator) according to the most recent poll (she's leading by a whopping 48 points, that's insane). She has a 30 point lead on Bernie in Pennsylvania according to the most recent poll. She's also leading in California, though it's to a lesser extent, she's still leading in the double digits 11 points according to the most recent poll.
The issue, however, is that California has not been polled since January, meaning it's harder to predict how that state will turn out. So, there is a chance Sanders could turn out to win that state. The ISSUE, though, is that if he wins it will be a tight win. And, thanks to proportional allocation, that means Clinton will still get a good share of the delegates and he won't be able to make a significant difference in the gap between their pledged delegates.
The people churning out these graphics don't fully understand the process of the Democratic primary and are likely Bernie supporters trying to stay positive. That's not even trying to be harsh.
It is all just so exciting. Something is going to have to go wrong though at some point. Not going to excite myself until that actually happens. Will actively campaign so it will though.