Don't bank on CA being liberal. I actually live here and it's not that liberal. That's only an illusion. LA county (even that is a reach, more like LA city) may be liberal but as you move from the main cities, things get real conservative, real quick. Hell, Arnold S was a Republican with conservative as hell views (ie: he took free dental care away), he was elected as governor, and got TWO terms.
I think overall, CA will fall in line with Hilary more than Bernie but some regions will be like majority Bernie and low Hilary and others will be the exact opposite.
True, I was really just thinking of San Francisco when I said that
But those bigger cities have a lot more population and he could win from just that. I think Bernie will snatch the big three (LA, SF, SD). I don't know about the rest of the state though.
I don't know why you assume this. Clinton didn't do very good in that debate. Plus she's been anti-immigration in the past.
The Castro/Cuba questions won't matter in California.
Assuming the delegate math doesn't practically guarantee Clinton a victory by the time California votes... Remember, California is LATE into the game. It's only important if the delegates are extremely tight by then, which if this trend of Hillary keeping a massive lead on Bernie continues, that won't be the case.
California is so late in the game tho. Plus she beat Obama last time. I doubt we're looking at a blowout there. I don't know why Bernie is so banking on that state.
If Hillary maintains a 300+ lead until then, and Bernie does win. That's over 500 delegates. For him to beat her, he would have to literally crush her to get that 300+ delegate. Plus Hillary may still have very loyal super delegates. They do matter a bit. I can see a big problem going forward honestly, but I don't think it'll come to that. All this is hypothetical. That's why Super Tuesday 3 is crucial to both campaigns.
California is so late in the game tho. Plus she beat Obama last time. I doubt we're looking at a blowout there. I don't know why Bernie is so banking on that state.
If Hillary maintains a 300+ lead until then, and Bernie does win. That's over 400 delegates. For him to beat her, he would have to literally crush her to get that 300+ delegate. Plus Hillary may still have very loyal super delegates. They do matter a bit. I can see a big problem going forward honestly, but I don't think it'll come to that. All this is hypothetical. That's why Super Tuesday 3 is crucial to both campaigns.
The problem is, the super delegates are people that are heavily invested in protecting the party. Bernie's biggest issue is self-inflicted... He just recently became a Democrat in November 2015, he has sued the DNC, constantly calls them corrupt, and has raised barely over a thousand dollars as compared to the millions Hillary has raised them.
Hillary is objectively a more loyal and stronger Democrat. They're not going to switch to Bernie like they switched to Obama in 2008. Even in 2008, Hillary never had as much of a super delegate lead as she does in this election.
The delegates won't switch. Obviously it's not over until she gets about 1250 more pledged delegates but the second she passes the actual mark including supers, the media and polls will reflect its finality.
Bernie has been talking about the corrupt establishment his entire campaign. If the establishment ends up picking the candidate (they're obviously going to pick Hillary), it would just prove him right. The DNC would lose tons of voters.
If neither get the 2,383 needed to win, in pledged delegates, then the super delegates push the final delegates right? In that case, I doubt it'll be Bernie who has more delegates. And I doubt he'll have the popular vote.
So an upset for what? If best, we'll see a similar 2008 race, but I honestly just don't see a path for that.
If neither get the 2,383 needed to win, in pledged delegates, then the super delegates push the final delegates right? In that case, I doubt it'll be Bernie who has more delegates. And I doubt he'll have the popular vote.
Bernie has been talking about the corrupt establishment his entire campaign. If the establishment ends up picking the candidate (they're obviously going to pick Hillary), it would just prove him right. The DNC would lose tons of voters.
You're assuming far less voter apathy than actually exists.
Bernie has been talking about the corrupt establishment his entire campaign. If the establishment ends up picking the candidate (they're obviously going to pick Hillary), it would just prove him right. The DNC would lose tons of voters.
Well, if those voters would rather sit out and have Trump win, then that's more telling of them than it is the DNC.
Imagine if the Republicans had super delegates. Rubio would probably be winning the election. Trump would have 0. Poor Cruz would get like 20 max.
On the Dem side, we really don't have this problem because luckily the voters agree with the super delegates. Clearly shows we're more united than them.
Poor Cruz would get like 20 max.