Yeah, I think Gaga has this in the bag. There's no way they'd invite the Vice President of the United States to introduce your performance of your nominated song if they weren't going to give you the award.
Leonardo sucks and only won because of this meme propaganda (that was probably started by some teenage girl after watching Titanic) that unfortunately got out of 9GAG into real life.
I mean, there are tons of great autors that never got an Oscar and there is nothing that makes Leo unusual (except maybe his thirst)
I don't blame the memes. I mean, once Matthew freakin McConaughey won, the Leo snub became even more ridiculous