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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Anyway, current projections based on most recent polling: the delegate count at the end should be about 3140 to 1620. My last projection had Clinton 3180, Sanders 1580.
Date State/Territory Clinton Sanders Delegates
2/20/2016 Nevada 0.56886 0.43114 35
2/27/2016 South Carolina 0.62025 0.37975 53
3/1/2016 Alabama 0.55670 0.44330 53
3/1/2016 Arkansas 0.69512 0.30488 32
3/1/2016 Colorado 0.68142 0.29204 66
3/1/2016 Georgia 0.75060 0.24940 102
3/1/2016 Massachusetts 0.65318 0.31214 91
3/1/2016 Minnesota 0.70238 0.29762 77
3/1/2016 Oklahoma 0.65891 0.34109 38
3/1/2016 Tennessee 0.63158 0.36842 67
3/1/2016 Texas 0.67773 0.32227 222
3/1/2016 Vermont 0.31522 0.68478 16
3/1/2016 Virginia 0.63187 0.36813 95
3/5/2016 Louisiana 0.86364 0.10606 51
3/6/2016 Maine 0.42268 0.57732 25
3/8/2016 Michigan 0.67232 0.32768 130
3/15/2016 Florida 0.71910 0.28090 214
3/15/2016 Illinois 0.72289 0.27711 156
3/15/2016 Missouri 0.67949 0.32051 71
3/15/2016 North Carolina 0.67633 0.32367 107
3/15/2016 Ohio 0.55319 0.44681 143
3/22/2016 Arizona 0.71212 0.28788 75
3/22/2016 Idaho 0.61111 0.38889 23
3/22/2016 Utah 0.55556 0.44444 33
3/26/2016 Alaska 0.51765 0.48235 16
4/5/2016 Wisconsin 0.51977 0.48023 86
4/19/2016 New York 0.61798 0.38202 247
4/26/2016 Connecticut 0.60839 0.39161 55
4/26/2016 Maryland 0.59701 0.40299 95
4/26/2016 Pennsylvania 0.63594 0.36406 189
5/17/2016 Kentucky 0.82353 0.17647 55
5/17/2016 Oregon 0.53012 0.46988 61
6/7/2016 California 0.59441 0.40559 475
6/7/2016 New Jersey 0.70588 0.29412 126
It currently looks like Hillary will win a majority without counting superdelegates; the gap could still narrow such that she does not, but I don't see it narrowing such that Bernie will be at all within range of a majority without a majority of superdelegates.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
You're, once again, trying to play with technicalities to prove a point that isn't even moderately-related to the point I was trying to make. Sure, Hillary is the likely winner and I've said it in the thread before. I was directly calling out the attitude the person was approaching, changing every "if" to a "when", the continuous biased sense of inevitability that many Hillary supporters continue to have is the sad part. Throwing polls and projections isn't even remotely related to what I was trying to say.
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The point is that she is still inevitable. Unless something significant changes she still has a massive lead, both in terms of likely delegates and in likeliness to win the nomination.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Holy **** Bernie is +76 in Vermont
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
Holy **** Bernie is +76 in Vermont
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 . He's coming for her in VT
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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How Hillary Clinton Won Harlem
Quote:
“I thought we’d get that talk from Bernie, but it was Hillary,” the woman said as she took her seat in the restaurant. The man with her nodded his head in agreement, and then they sat in silence, attending to the world in their cell phones.
“Hey, soror,” a woman half-shouted a few minutes later, as she scooped food into her Styrofoam takeout box. The seated woman looked up, smiled, and responded, “Oh, hey, soror, you see Hillary?”
“She was real good, right,” the woman making her plate said, now at a different food station. All three nodded their heads, almost causing me to join in even though I was not a part of the conversation. All of this took place at Manna’s, the self-anointed “Best Soul Food Restaurant in the Village of Harlem.” I religiously get a four-vegetable plate there whenever I go to an event at the Schomburg Center, the New York Public Library’s hub for black culture, which sits on the corner of 135th and Malcolm X.
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Quote:
There was one moment in Rangel’s introduction, however, when his presence — and his actions — were undeniably infectious to everyone in the room, especially the Black Harlemites: “It’s been brought to my attention that some people have been following the secretary of State around to disrupt rather than to instruct. Please be informed, you are in the village of Harlem.”
This was met with wild applause from the room, a big smile from Hillary, and a Holder whisper to Cuomo, followed by laughs from both men. It was one of the more street-cred-pumping moments this campaign has seen. You **** with Hill, you **** with Harlem. And it capped off a perfect warm-up act for Hillary — New York State, New York City, and Harlem supporting not only Hillary being the next president, but her as someone who could do a lot of good for black people.
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Quote:
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I genuinely couldn’t believe what I was hearing. The tiptoeing had vanished. She wasn’t trying to win everyone’s vote by flying as close to the middle as possible. And even though the room was markedly black, these thoughts were now on her permanent electoral record for all to see. The use of “imagine” was powerful, because it comes with an almost implied, You can’t imagine it, because that **** wouldn’t fly. She was finally just saying it, bluntly. Hearing this, in February, was so much more powerful than any policy plan. Because before many people want to know your plan — or before people will ever truly consider believing in your plan — they want to know that you understand their world.
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Quote:
And then, out of nowhere, as she was really peaking, and the increasingly loud cheers in the room suggested that these points were not only felt but appreciated, she had one of those Hillary coughing fits.
It’s like watching someone with the hiccups; you don’t really know when they’re going to end. But herein lies the beauty of the goodwill Hillary had built up in the room — the beauty of black people being an expressive bunch: The room started clapping loudly, almost to mask her coughs until she was done, to get her through this stretch. People were acting like it was church, when some member of the congregation gets up to speak but suddenly gets emotional or nervous. Shouts of “Take your time, Hill” and “You’re okay” rang from all corners of the room. After a few coughs, Hillary squeaked out, “I’ve got too much to say,” which was met with laughter. When some of the coughing halted, Hillary softly said a few sentences with her voice at about 10 percent strength, and after every few sentences, people cheered her on. There were even some “HILLARY, HILLARY” chants. I couldn’t believe it.
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http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer...on-harlem.html
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This article was so hood, but I loved reading it. I so wish I was there to see it in person.
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
The point is that she is still inevitable. Unless something significant changes she still has a massive lead, both in terms of likely delegates and in that liness to win the nomination.
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She's not inevitable, no one is. We're literally only two primaries through, she barely won the first and lost the other. Of course, she's certainly more likely to win and we know that, it shouldn't be a trigger to the sad attitude on here, though.
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Super Tuesday polls from PPP:
Alabama - Clinton +28
Arkansas - Clinton +25
Georgia - Clinton +34
Louisiana - Clinton +31
Massachusetts - Sanders +7
Michigan - Clinton +10
Mississippi - Clinton +34
Oklahoma - Clinton +2
Tennessee - Clinton +26
Texas - Clinton +23
Virginia - Clinton +22
Vermont - Sanders +76 (lol)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...k-support.html
EDIT: made copying mistake from Massachusetts, sorry
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
Holy **** Bernie is +76 in Vermont
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I mean, this isn't surprising - the last poll we got there was December and had him with a 34-point lead. 
He'll probably get 12-14 delegates there, maybe even 15.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
Super Tuesday polls from PPP:
Alabama - Clinton +28
Arkansas - Clinton +25
Georgia - Clinton +34
Louisiana - Clinton +31
Massachusetts - Clinton +7
Michigan - Clinton +10
Mississippi - Clinton +34
Oklahoma - Clinton +2
Tennessee - Clinton +26
Texas - Clinton +23
Virginia - Clinton +22
Vermont - Sanders +76 (lol)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...k-support.html |
asdfghjkl;'
Thanks for this. PPP is a trusted pollster too, B- rating
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
asdfghjkl;'
Thanks for this. PPP is a trusted pollster too, B- rating
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The person I copy and pasted it from made a mistake, it's Sanders +7 in Massachusetts
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by foxaylove
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Those excerpts are amazing I have to read the article
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by foxaylove
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
Super Tuesday polls from PPP:
Alabama - Clinton +28
Arkansas - Clinton +25
Georgia - Clinton +34
Louisiana - Clinton +31
Massachusetts - Sanders +7
Michigan - Clinton +10
Mississippi - Clinton +34
Oklahoma - Clinton +2
Tennessee - Clinton +26
Texas - Clinton +23
Virginia - Clinton +22
Vermont - Sanders +76 (lol)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...k-support.html
EDIT: made copying mistake from Massachusetts, sorry |
SLAY 
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
Super Tuesday polls from PPP:
Alabama - Clinton +28
Arkansas - Clinton +25
Georgia - Clinton +34
Louisiana - Clinton +31
Massachusetts - Clinton +7
Michigan - Clinton +10
Mississippi - Clinton +34
Oklahoma - Clinton +2
Tennessee - Clinton +26
Texas - Clinton +23
Virginia - Clinton +22
Vermont - Sanders +76 (lol)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...k-support.html |
Louisiana's primary isn't on Super Tuesday. Ours will be on Saturday, March 5th. Also, Michigan and Mississippi's primaries will be held on the 8th of March.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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From the same source, with black voters:
Alabama / Clinton +45
Arkansas / Clinton +62
Georgia / Clinton +56
Louisiana / Clinton +57
Michigan / Clinton +52
Mississippi / Clinton +47
Tennessee / Clinton +59
Texas / Clinton +40
Virginia / Clinton +58
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Quote:
Originally posted by foxaylove
Louisiana's primary isn't on Super Tuesday. Ours will be on Saturday, March 5th. Also, Michigan and Mississippi's primaries will be held on the 8th of March.
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Yeah a better title would have been "an assortment of polls from PPP that all happen in early March". There are some super tuesday states not in there too
EDIT: I figured it out, it's all the early March primaries (and excludes the caucuses)
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Member Since: 10/17/2011
Posts: 8,965
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Slay democrats 
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Member Since: 4/4/2014
Posts: 10,514
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
I personally find my attitude to be moderately mature and fitting, I'm sorry if calling out bias might go against the picture-perfrct scenario you plot this thread to be, at least I'm following ATRL rules and not insulting others asking them to "act like adults" - but thank you for sharing your genuine opinion.
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I agree with Lights and Waves, actually. I like having supporters of both sides in the thread, but your tone and attitude are regularly aggressive and condescending. For example, it certainly wasn't "mature and fitting" to respond to Retro's respectful post by telling him to "NOT even try" comparing candidates and then make sweeping assumptions about all Clinton supporters.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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How is she losing Oklahoma (well not winning) by a lot? Conservative dems live there tf. They're feeling the Bern alright
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
Yeah a better title would have been "an assortment of polls from PPP that all happen in early March". There are some super tuesday states not in there too
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Super Tuesday and the weekend following it will do wonders for breathing new confidence in the camp in proceeding forward. What it does is places more pressure on Bernie to pickup steam in the mid-west states, northeast, and on the west coast to remain a viable interest. More money from his camp will be spent. I said from the beginning he could've really turned the tables had he concentrated more on the mid-west and western states. I think his message would care more punch with that audience and flip some people. Basically, time is running against him.
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