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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 3,391
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The problem with Sanders is that his voters will be way too concentrated in campus colleges. He may even need to bus around kids to their hometowns.
It will really come down to how strategically his supporters play with O´Malley ones to strip out Clinton of delegates in places where he absolutely dominates. But Clinton will do the same so, its all a ****ing mess tbh. 
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by MAKSIM
Why would you register independent?  |
Because honestly I'm truly independent when it comes to important issues. That's why my favorites in order this cycle are
1) Clinton
2) Kasich
3) Sanders
4) Trump
and then the rest lol. But I thought PA was Open/Blanket. I had no idea it was closed 
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Melquiades
The problem with Sanders is that his voters will be way too concentrated in campus colleges. He may even need to bus around kids to their hometowns.
It will really come down to how strategically his supporters play with O´Malley ones to strip out Clinton of delegates in places where he absolutely dominates. But Clinton will do the same so, its all a ****ing mess tbh. |
Yeah agreed, talked about this earlier today. If the caucuses were the same time as in 2008, I would expect Sanders to win by a lot. The timing helped Clinton tbh. I'm sure Sanders has a plan though
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Melquiades
The problem with Sanders is that his voters will be way too concentrated in campus colleges. He may even need to bus around kids to their hometowns.
It will really come down to how strategically his supporters play with O´Malley ones to strip out Clinton of delegates in places where he absolutely dominates. But Clinton will do the same so, its all a ****ing mess tbh. |
But, you can only vote in the precinct in which you're registered address lies; college kids are stuck at their college site or the one for their home address, depending on where they're registered.
This is actually pretty significant - it forces people who are registered at home to reregister with their college address if they want to caucus, because they're not on break. Having the caucus just a little later has essentially forced the core millennial Sanders voters to be more concentrated in a few particular precincts.
Plus, I don't feel like turnout will hit the 227k mark of 2008, especially with weather concerns and accounting for the fact that Sanders just hasn't energized millennials in quite the same way Obama did.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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If there are enough unsure Republican voters tomorrow, we could see an upset for Cruz as voters defect from Trump.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Any solid numbers on O'Malley's supporters' second choices?
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 1/3/2014
Posts: 11,976
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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The caucus could go on until 9 am if it's close enough. 
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
Any solid numbers on O'Malley's supporters' second choices?
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I think the Selzer poll (may have been that) had that most of them (forgot the exact number but it was over 50%) has Sanders as their second choice. I'll find that exact poll after I help Cupid with something
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 3,391
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
Any solid numbers on O'Malley's supporters' second choices?
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Something like 57%-29% in favor of Sanders.
Wont matter much though. What will matter the most is how much Sanders supporters are willing to play the game and move themselves towards OMalley when needed to avoid Clinton getting any delegate.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Mel is right. Forgot the exact poll but those numbers look familiar
Also this can get some insight
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...ults/79571562/
Look for the first/second choices. As close as can be if you factor O Malley supporters in that as well as undecided/not sure voters
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Looking at their campaign sites - I'm taking notes to counter Sanders supporters and convince them to switch, since this is undoubtedly her weakest precinct in the state - it's really interesting how different their focuses are. Hillary REALLY focuses on the family and on the so-called common man in addition to everything else. Look at Hillary's page; campaign finance reform is there, college, Wall Street - all of the core Sanders tenets in slightly altered form. But then if you look harder, she specifically addresses Alzheimer's, campus sexual assault, labor unions, early education, gun violence (!!!), and more that just aren't in the Sanders headlines.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Melquiades
Something like 57%-29% in favor of Sanders.
Wont matter much though. What will matter the most is how much Sanders supporters are willing to play the game and move themselves towards OMalley when needed to avoid Clinton getting any delegate.
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I don't think he's strong there. Meanwhile, Hill has a literal app out to help precinct captains do exactly that, she's not here to play. 
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
Looking at their campaign sites - I'm taking notes to counter Sanders supporters and convince them to switch, since this is undoubtedly her weakest precinct in the state - it's really interesting how different their focuses are. Hillary REALLY focuses on the family and on the so-called common man in addition to everything else. Look at Hillary's page; campaign finance reform is there, college, Wall Street - all of the core Sanders tenets in slightly altered form. But then if you look harder, she specifically addresses Alzheimer's, campus sexual assault, labor unions, early education, gun violence (!!!), and more that just aren't in the Sanders headlines.
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Good luck with that
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 3,391
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
I don't think he's strong there. Meanwhile, Hill has a literal app out to help precinct captains do exactly that, she's not here to play. |
Yeah, one of the reasons she came in third in Iowa was her unwillingness to play the strategic game. I do wonder if Sanders camp has an hidden strategy for this, but I dont think so. His staffers are really the worse, they are literally the leftovers of what Clinton didnt want to take in it (and it shows).
For what is worth, Bernie has pull off and amazing feat with such limited and broken resources.
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
Looking at their campaign sites - I'm taking notes to counter Sanders supporters and convince them to switch, since this is undoubtedly her weakest precinct in the state - it's really interesting how different their focuses are. Hillary REALLY focuses on the family and on the so-called common man in addition to everything else. Look at Hillary's page; campaign finance reform is there, college, Wall Street - all of the core Sanders tenets in slightly altered form. But then if you look harder, she specifically addresses Alzheimer's, campus sexual assault, labor unions, early education, gun violence (!!!), and more that just aren't in the Sanders headlines.
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We already know Hillary will attach herself to any popular issue that favors her politically. This is not new information or surprising coming from her.
I don't really care what Hillary supports because deciding to support something now means nothing if you either haven't always supported it or are actually going to fight for it once you get elected. Talk is cheap (well considering where and how she gets her money, her talk ain't so cheap, but whatever).
Bernie is right when he says it's Hillary who has the electability problems because unless she goes against Trump, she's going to have a lot of problems against the republican candidate, especially if her email problem continues to grow.
But don't let me ruin the fun for the Little Hillsters.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
Looking at their campaign sites - I'm taking notes to counter Sanders supporters and convince them to switch, since this is undoubtedly her weakest precinct in the state - it's really interesting how different their focuses are. Hillary REALLY focuses on the family and on the so-called common man in addition to everything else. Look at Hillary's page; campaign finance reform is there, college, Wall Street - all of the core Sanders tenets in slightly altered form. But then if you look harder, she specifically addresses Alzheimer's, campus sexual assault, labor unions, early education, gun violence (!!!), and more that just aren't in the Sanders headlines.
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Good luck! Fight the good fight, Retro.
---
Have y'all signed your commitment cards? 
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
Good luck with that |
I have to try!
In our mock caucus - I may have mentioned this before - she only got two delegates to the four for each of the other two, out of ten. Sanders is strong here and surprisingly O'Mal has surged on this campus. Obviously the full precinct will be different and there's no chance she won't be viable, if she's viable with even the students, but I want to work my hardest to get her as close to victory in this precinct as possible. If she could upset here of all places, I think she has a stronger shot at winning than we all think.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 3,391
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I am expecting 55% vs 45% in favor of Hillary. The Bernie hype is being overplayed by the media.
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Member Since: 2/6/2012
Posts: 306
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Go Hillary!!! 
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