And uuuuuuuuuuuuuuu knoooooooooooooooow
That I don't want you to go
Remind me how it used to be
Pictures in frames of kisses on cheeks
And say you want me, yeah, yeah
I wouldn't say I am a chart expert. I pay attention to sales, but I don't really know too much about radio, especially US radio. Posters like Umich, Ger-55 and Alexanderao are experts on that side. I do know that Hot 100 placing is calculated from radio, sales and streaming. To be top of Hot 100, you need strong performance in all three really, or be completely dominant in one. As you need to have strong radio airplay to place high and this takes time to build up, instant grat songs don't really pose a threat to Hot 100 top places.
BS was selling so much so quickly that it shot to the top of Hot 100 almost straight away. It was gaining really quickly on radio and the streaming aspect was covered by the MV getting so many views. For most of the first month of it's time on top, BS was outselling the 2nd most song by more than 2 to 1. UF and LAM and TMTC have come on now and narrowed the sales gap a month later, but now BS is the top song on radio and still increasing it's spins.
If you look at the current week. BS was overcoming the Voice Finale effect and had overtaken UF in sales again. Then the Christmas gift effect took place and BS sold hundreds of k more than UF this week. It's iTunes level is slowly returning back to what it was before this boost. So BS is getting red updates on kworb's. This is just the track returning to 'normal' levels of sales from the start of the week. I expect the sales levels of UF and BS to be similar for the next week. This would be enough for BS to extend it's reign on Hot 100.
The Hot 100 formula has been worked out by a few people. There is a guy on ukmix who runs the numbers and a few here on atrl. They usually are accurate. I dont run the numbers, but I can see in broad terms what will happen.
I don't predict too far ahead usually but I do think SIO and BS will end up selling more than 4 million in the US without any doubt. SIO is on about 3.3 million (should get 200k or so this week) and selling 80k a week. BS is on about 2.1 million and will prob get 500k this week and then sell 200k a week for a while yet. SIO should maintain it's longevity and BS is still selling loads so that it will rack up those numbers quickly, even once it falls off the top of the chart. So both these tracks should end up amongst Taylor's highest selling tracks in the US.
1989 should hopefully stay top of BB200 during Jan. Meghan Trainor and Fall Out Boy could take a week or two, but Taylor should take the rest. Beyond that, it depends what happens with Single 3. 1989 should be helped stay atop the BB200 by the new rules incorporating singles sales and streaming, so there is a chance to take Fearless' record.
Taylor is slaying tbh. Thanks for that you're post was really helpful. It was slaying the hot 100 so hard I remember.
Nnn Ash12345 is perpetually pessimistic about Taylor's chart run. Well, better than the ones constantly boasting about her current success (love fridayteenage though <3). At least with Ash, karma won't bite my arse.
Not sure if you intended that, but if so, clever. 
