[fridayteenage]

Originally posted by Ger-55

It's close to be 1k Sales = 1M Airplay = 100k Streams but still some 2 points difference between Taylor/M5. Let's wait for full chart to start guessing. Another possible case is Sales*8 + Airplay*8 + Streaming*84

Hmm, the article doesn't give a full breakdown for any song, which is how I figured the formula change before.
Nor does it even give a "points increase" for any song, which one could use to figure out the formula backwards.
Maybe a week soon from now when one song has a ridiculous weight from 1 component, or there's a big debut; that's when BB likes to break it down...

Anyway, I *think* Taylor breaks the record for most solo songs with multiple 300k weeks, with 4. My list of fun data is on my computer, and I'm currently in another city from it.

[brianc33616]

This may speed up the charts some too, since streaming has traditionally been the slowest component that have kept songs on the Hot 100 the longest.

[Nikolai.]

Lips Are Movin top 20, Meghan is officially not a one hit wonder

[alexanderao]

I don't understand why they are increasing the influence of sales on the chart when sales are becoming less and less of an accurate barometer for showing how popular a song is.

Streaming is, by far, the most accurate measuring stick for popularity. If I were asked to estimate the 10 most popular songs at my high school right now, the list would probably be closer to the Spotify top 10 than to the iTunes or pop radio top 10. As more and more people move away from purchasing music and move towards streaming it, I think the influence of streaming should actually increase.

[brianc33616]

Originally posted by fridayteenage

Hmm, the article doesn't give a full breakdown for any song, which is how I figured the formula change before.
Nor does it even give a "points increase" for any song, which one could use to figure out the formula backwards.
Maybe a week soon from now when one song has a ridiculous weight from 1 component, or there's a big debut; that's when BB likes to break it down...

Anyway, I *think* Taylor breaks the record for most solo songs with multiple 300k weeks, with 4. My list of fun data is on my computer, and I'm currently in another city from it.

"Blank Space" is making huge gains in sales and substantial gains in airplay this week,which will reflect on next week's Hot 100, so maybe we can figure out the new formula by then.

[popmusic]

Originally posted by fridayteenage

Hmm, the article doesn't give a full breakdown for any song, which is how I figured the formula change before.
Nor does it even give a "points increase" for any song, which one could use to figure out the formula backwards.
Maybe a week soon from now when one song has a ridiculous weight from 1 component, or there's a big debut; that's when BB likes to break it down...

Anyway, I *think* Taylor breaks the record for most solo songs with multiple 300k weeks, with 4. My list of fun data is on my computer, and I'm currently in another city from it.

We need more charts data to figure out formula. I run script for TW data(5 positions) and it's too much possibilities. TBH I use formula:

Points = sales[k]*A + Audience Impression[M]*B + Streaming[M]*C

where A,B,C are real numbers and A+B+C=1.00 and A,B,C>0
this method is a little bit simpler to implemented in C++ code.

Last time it was:
Sales[k]*0.060 + Audience Impression[M]*0.045 + Streaming*[M]*0.895

of course if we normalise all factors it gives:
100k = 75M AI = 5M streams

If someone wants I can paste my software code

[popmusic]

Originally posted by Ger-55

It's close to be 1k Sales = 1M Airplay = 100k Streams but still some 2 points difference between Taylor/M5. Let's wait for full chart to start guessing. Another possible case is Sales*8 + Airplay*8 + Streaming*84

TBH there is more combinations:

Hot 100

7.5 7.9 84.6
7.6 5.7 86.7
7.6 5.8 86.6
7.6 5.9 86.5
7.6 6 86.4
7.6 6.1 86.3
7.6 6.2 86.2
7.6 6.3 86.1
7.6 6.4 86
7.6 6.5 85.9
7.6 6.6 85.8
7.6 6.7 85.7
7.6 6.8 85.6
7.6 6.9 85.5
7.6 7 85.4
7.6 7.1 85.3
7.6 7.2 85.2
7.6 7.3 85.1
7.6 7.4 85
7.6 7.5 84.9
7.6 7.6 84.8
7.6 7.7 84.7
7.6 7.8 84.6
7.6 7.9 84.5
7.6 8 84.4
7.7 5.7 86.6
7.7 5.8 86.5
7.7 5.9 86.4
7.7 6 86.3
7.7 6.1 86.2
7.7 6.2 86.1
7.7 6.29999 86
7.7 6.39999 85.9
7.7 6.5 85.8
7.7 6.6 85.7
7.7 6.7 85.6
7.7 6.8 85.5
7.7 6.9 85.4
7.7 7 85.3
7.7 7.1 85.2
7.7 7.2 85.1
7.7 7.3 85
7.7 7.4 84.9
7.7 7.5 84.8
7.7 7.6 84.7
7.7 7.7 84.6
7.7 7.8 84.5
7.7 7.9 84.4
7.7 8 84.3
7.7 8.1 84.2
7.8 5.7 86.5
7.8 5.8 86.4
7.8 5.9 86.3
7.8 6 86.2
7.8 6.1 86.1
7.8 6.2 86
7.8 6.29999 85.9
7.8 6.39999 85.8
7.8 6.5 85.7
7.8 6.6 85.6
7.8 6.7 85.5
7.8 6.8 85.4
7.8 6.9 85.3
7.8 7 85.2
7.8 7.1 85.1
7.8 7.2 85
7.8 7.3 84.9
7.8 7.4 84.8
7.8 7.5 84.7
7.8 7.6 84.6
7.8 7.7 84.5
7.8 7.8 84.4
7.8 7.9 84.3
7.8 8 84.2
7.8 8.1 84.1
7.8 8.2 84
7.9 5.6 86.5
7.9 5.7 86.4
7.9 5.8 86.3
7.9 5.9 86.2
7.9 6 86.1
7.9 6.1 86
7.9 6.2 85.9
7.9 6.29999 85.8
7.9 6.39999 85.7
7.9 6.5 85.6
7.9 6.6 85.5
7.9 6.7 85.4
7.9 6.8 85.3
7.9 6.9 85.2
7.9 7 85.1
7.9 7.1 85
7.9 7.2 84.9
7.9 7.3 84.8
7.9 7.4 84.7
7.9 7.5 84.6
7.9 7.6 84.5
7.9 7.7 84.4
7.9 7.8 84.3
7.9 7.9 84.2
7.9 8 84.1
7.9 8.1 84
7.9 8.2 83.9
7.9 8.3 83.8
8 5.7 86.3
8 5.8 86.2
8 5.9 86.1
8 6 86
8 6.1 85.9
8 6.2 85.8
8 6.29999 85.7
8 6.39999 85.6
8 6.5 85.5
8 6.6 85.4
8 6.7 85.3
8 6.8 85.2
8 6.9 85.1
8 7 85
8 7.1 84.9
8 7.2 84.8
8 7.3 84.7
8 7.4 84.6
8 7.5 84.5
8 7.6 84.4
8 7.7 84.3
8 7.8 84.2
8 7.9 84.1
8 8 84
8 8.1 83.9
8 8.2 83.8
8 8.3 83.7
8 8.4 83.6
8.1 6 85.9
8.1 6.1 85.8
8.1 6.2 85.7
8.1 6.29999 85.6
8.1 6.39999 85.5
8.1 6.5 85.4
8.1 6.6 85.3
8.1 6.7 85.2
8.1 6.8 85.1
8.1 6.9 85
8.1 7 84.9
8.1 7.1 84.8
8.1 7.2 84.7
8.1 7.3 84.6
8.1 7.4 84.5
8.1 7.5 84.4
8.1 7.6 84.3
8.1 7.7 84.2
8.1 7.8 84.1
8.1 7.9 84
8.1 8 83.9
8.1 8.1 83.8
8.1 8.2 83.7
8.1 8.3 83.6
8.1 8.4 83.5
8.2 6.29999 85.5
8.2 6.39999 85.4
8.2 6.5 85.3
8.2 6.6 85.2
8.2 6.7 85.1
8.2 6.8 85
8.2 6.9 84.9
8.2 7 84.8
8.2 7.1 84.7
8.2 7.2 84.6
8.2 7.3 84.5
8.2 7.4 84.4
8.2 7.5 84.3
8.2 7.6 84.2
8.2 7.7 84.1
8.2 7.8 84
8.2 7.9 83.9
8.2 8 83.8
8.2 8.1 83.7
8.2 8.2 83.6
8.2 8.3 83.5
8.2 8.4 83.4
8.2 8.5 83.3
8.3 6.6 85.1
8.3 6.7 85
8.3 6.8 84.9
8.3 6.9 84.8
8.3 7 84.7
8.3 7.1 84.6
8.3 7.2 84.5
8.3 7.3 84.4
8.3 7.4 84.3
8.3 7.5 84.2
8.3 7.6 84.1
8.3 7.7 84
8.3 7.8 83.9
8.3 7.9 83.8
8.3 8 83.7
8.3 8.1 83.6
8.3 8.2 83.5
8.3 8.3 83.4
8.3 8.4 83.3
8.3 8.5 83.2
8.3 8.6 83.1
8.4 6.9 84.7
8.4 7 84.6
8.4 7.1 84.5
8.4 7.2 84.4
8.4 7.3 84.3
8.4 7.4 84.2
8.4 7.5 84.1
8.4 7.6 84
8.4 7.7 83.9
8.4 7.8 83.8
8.4 7.9 83.7
8.4 8 83.6
8.4 8.1 83.5
8.4 8.2 83.4
8.4 8.3 83.3
8.4 8.4 83.2
8.4 8.5 83.1
8.4 8.6 83
8.4 8.7 82.9
8.5 7.2 84.3
8.5 7.3 84.2
8.5 7.4 84.1
8.5 7.5 84
8.5 7.6 83.9
8.5 7.7 83.8
8.5 7.8 83.7
8.5 7.9 83.6
8.5 8 83.5
8.5 8.1 83.4
8.5 8.2 83.3
8.5 8.3 83.2
8.5 8.4 83.1
8.5 8.5 83
8.5 8.6 82.9
8.5 8.7 82.8
8.5 8.8 82.7
8.6 7.5 83.9
8.6 7.6 83.8
8.6 7.7 83.7
8.6 7.8 83.6
8.6 7.9 83.5
8.6 8 83.4
8.6 8.1 83.3
8.6 8.2 83.2
8.6 8.3 83.1
8.6 8.4 83
8.6 8.5 82.9
8.6 8.6 82.8
8.6 8.7 82.7
8.6 8.8 82.6
8.6 8.9 82.5
8.7 7.8 83.5
8.7 7.9 83.4
8.7 8 83.3
8.7 8.1 83.2
8.7 8.2 83.1
8.7 8.3 83
8.7 8.4 82.9
8.7 8.5 82.8
8.7 8.6 82.7
8.7 8.7 82.6
8.7 8.8 82.5
8.7 8.9 82.4
8.7 9 82.3
8.8 8.1 83.1
8.8 8.2 83
8.8 8.3 82.9
8.8 8.4 82.8
8.8 8.5 82.7
8.8 8.6 82.6
8.8 8.7 82.5
8.8 8.8 82.4
8.8 8.9 82.3
8.8 9 82.2
8.8 9.1 82.1
8.9 8.4 82.7
8.9 8.5 82.6
8.9 8.6 82.5
8.9 8.7 82.4
8.9 8.8 82.3
8.9 8.9 82.2
8.9 9 82.1
8.9 9.1 82
9 8.7 82.3
9 8.8 82.2
9 8.9 82.1
9 9 82
9 9.1 81.9
9 9.2 81.8
9.1 9 81.9
9.1 9.1 81.8
9.1 9.2 81.7
9.1 9.3 81.6
9.2 9.3 81.5
9.2 9.4 81.4

[brianc33616]

Originally posted by alexanderao

I don't understand why they are increasing the influence of sales on the chart when sales are becoming less and less of an accurate barometer for showing how popular a song is.

Streaming is, by far, the most accurate measuring stick for popularity. If I were asked to estimate the 10 most popular songs at my high school right now, the list would probably be closer to the Spotify top 10 than to the iTunes or pop radio top 10. As more and more people move away from purchasing music and move towards streaming it, I think the influence of streaming should actually increase.

Not all music fans are in high school though Alexanderao. so you cannot limit all of your research to such a small group of people. It does not work. I am more than twice your age lol, so I have seen several shifts in the music industry. This includes in between 1999-2004 where record labels quit releasing physical singles, were not really releasing downloads yet, so they were forcing fans to buy an entire album ($20) to hear their favorite song. And then, they would send a remix to the record station demanding the station play the remix instead of the original. and the only way you could get the remix was to buy a re-released version of the CD or a CD full of remixes (another $20). So spending $1.29 for a song is still a bargain in my book (though I admit lowering prices to.59/.79/.99 would boost downloads).

At some point, if artists aren't paid enough by On-Demand services like Spotify and Pandora, they will remove their catalogs. That's what Taylor Swift and Jason Aldean have done, and many more are rumored as ready to make the same move. Also,this will force both Spotify and Pandora to start charging everyone a mandatory monthly service fee to compensate artist. Free streaming does not compensate the artist, so that alone is not the future of music. I agree On-Demand Streaming does play a part in the future of the music industry, but On-Demand Streaming will never fully control or own the music industry.

[alexanderao]

Originally posted by brianc33616

Not all music fans are in high school though Alexanderao. so you cannot limit all of your research to such a small group of people. It does not work. I am more than twice your age lol, so I have seen several shifts in the music industry. This includes in between 1999-2004 where record labels quit releasing physical singles, were not really releasing downloads yet, so they were forcing fans to buy an entire album ($20) to hear their favorite song. And then, they would send a remix to the record station demanding the station play the remix instead of the original. and the only way you could get the remix was to buy a re-released version of the CD or a CD full of remixes (another $20). So spending $1.29 for a song is still a bargain in my book (though I admit lowering prices to.59/.79/.99 would boost downloads).

At some point, if artists aren't paid enough by On-Demand services like Spotify and Pandora, they will remove their catalogs. That's what Taylor Swift and Jason Aldean have done, and many more are rumored as ready to make the same move. Also,this will force both Spotify and Pandora to start charging everyone a mandatory monthly service fee to compensate artist. Free streaming does not compensate the artist, so that alone is not the future of music. I agree On-Demand Streaming does play a part in the future of the music industry, but On-Demand Streaming will never fully control or own the music industry.

I don't think the only issue with Spotify is the amount that artists get paid. I'm sure Taylor would make millions from Spotify in the coming months if 1989 were to be placed on the service now. What lies behind Taylor's decision to remove her catalog from Spotify is the belief that music should not be accessible for free. And that logic is flawed because it's very easy to access music for free these days; radio, YouTube, Pirate Bay, etc. are all easy ways to do that. Attempting to render one of them (in this case, Spotify) irrelevant will have no effect on the overall attitude of the consumer, because if someone wants to listen to something for free, they will.

[Lose My Breath]

Why are people saying sales aren't a good indication of what's popular? If people are willing to invest money into a song, it's because they like it, same with streaming, they play it over and over because they like it.

Radio needs to change, it's all big business and that needs to change!

[Diarrhoea]

Streaming is good because if someone likes it they'll play it again, whereas sometimes you buy songs and don't really listen.

[alexanderao]

Originally posted by Lose My Breath

Why are people saying sales aren't a good indication of what's popular? If people are willing to invest money into a song, it's because they like it, same with streaming, they play it over and over because they like it.

Radio needs to change, it's all big business and that needs to change!

Because more and more people are streaming and less and less people are buying.

Are vinyl sales a good indication of what's popular? No. Were they a good indicator 50 years ago? Yes.

[Superpower]

Originally posted by hello_world

Streaming is good because if someone likes it they'll play it again, whereas sometimes you buy songs and don't really listen.

Who buys songs they don't like?
I understand buying a song then stop liking it few weeks later.
Radio on the other hand isn't a good indicator of what people like. Just this week, Animals is #1 on radio but #11 in sales and Don't is #3 on radio but #31 in sales.

[Lose My Breath]

Sales will always be an important aspect to these charts, and now streaming will as well. Radio on the other hand is becoming further and further from what people are really interested in.

[Superpower]

Originally posted by alexanderao

I don't think the only issue with Spotify is the amount that artists get paid. I'm sure Taylor would make millions from Spotify in the coming months if 1989 were to be placed on the service now. What lies behind Taylor's decision to remove her catalog from Spotify is the belief that music should not be accessible for free. And that logic is flawed because it's very easy to access music for free these days; radio, YouTube, Pirate Bay, etc. are all easy ways to do that. Attempting to render one of them (in this case, Spotify) irrelevant will have no effect on the overall attitude of the consumer, because if someone wants to listen to something for free, they will.

The difference is Spotify doesn't pay the record labels when their songs are being played by a non subscriber despite playing an ad every 10min or so. That's why Taylor asked them to give 1989 to subscribers only.
Youtube pays record labels so when we are watching a video on YouTube, the record label is making money.
I remember reading that Clear Channel pays record labels when a song becomes huge because it brings them more listeners, therefore more revenues from ads.

[brianc33616]

Vinyl sales aren't a good indicator now because the large majority of Americans don't have turntables. That is comparing potatoes to squash.

I can see why the younger generation still in high school who is not out in the work force full time would want free streaming to expand, because they do not have the money to spend on downloads and CDs. However, just because you don't like downloading music, and your friends don't like downloading music, doesn't automatically mean nobody likes downloading music.

I am not one that says Streaming should be taken off the chart (like Garth Brooks, who would want Downloads removed too, but that's another matter). Remember I said the ideal mix would be:
40% sales > 30% On-Demand Streaming > 20% Airplay > 10% You-Tube Streaming. And 30+10=40, and 40=40

I am concerned that there could be a backlash that gets us back to a situation like 15 or so years ago, where the only way to hear the music is on the radio or to download the entire CD or buy the CD at the store (Garth Brooks would feel like a king again). And I don't want that to happen. That's why I want Digital Downloads to remain active along with On-Demand Streaming. Fifteen years ago was not fun. and while there might be ways to illegally download something for free, I guarantee you should we return to the situation mentioned above, the technology will be there to bust everyone on the spot that tries to do it.

[alexanderao]

Originally posted by Lose My Breath

Sales will always be an important aspect to these charts, and now streaming will as well. Radio on the other hand is becoming further and further from what people are really interested in.

I agree with this, but there's a point I'd like to bring up.

A lot of people still listen to the radio, so I think radio is a good measure of a song's exposure and familiarity. My mom doesn't buy or stream music; the only way she discovers music is through radio. Radio fills that niche of people who don't care enough about music to buy/stream it on demand, but enjoy hearing it.

I do believe that radio is the least accurate measure of a song's popularity out of radio, sales, and streaming, but I believe that radio is an accurate measure of a song's exposure to the general public.

Did that make sense?

[alexanderao]

Originally posted by Superpower

The difference is Spotify doesn't pay the record labels when their songs are being played by a non subscriber despite playing an ad every 10min or so. That's why Taylor asked them to give 1989 to subscribers only.
Youtube pays record labels so when we are watching a video on YouTube, the record label is making money.
I remember reading that Clear Channel pays record labels when a song becomes huge because it brings them more listeners, therefore more revenues from ads.

1989 is available for Spotify Premium subscribers??

Originally posted by brianc33616

Vinyl sales aren't a good indicator now because the large majority of Americans don't have turntables. That is comparing potatoes to squash.

I can see why the younger generation still in high school who is not out in the work force full time would want free streaming to expand, because they do not have the money to spend on downloads and CDs. However, just because you don't like downloading music, and your friends don't like downloading music, doesn't automatically mean nobody likes downloading music.

I wasn't trying to say that nobody likes downloading music. My point was that there's plenty of evidence that digital sales are taking a nosedive and usage of streaming services is skyrocketing, and that sales will just continue to become even worse of an indicator as the number of people buying music decreases.

[alexanderao]

I think we should take the "what's the best indicator" debate to a whole new thread. Lemme open one up.

[holyground]

Sales should always be the biggest factor. Forking out the money to invest in a song should weigh higher than clicking replay on spotify.