Theoretically, it is indeed a hit. However, it's not for her standards. It'd be amazing if someone like Xtina performed this way - heck, even Britney. But not for Lady Gaga, considering the massive fame and success she has accumulated with her previous eras. I never knew her standards were set lower this time around.
And there you have it. That's the fact. The rest of the ******** you wrote is the "theory."
Britney can afford to flop right now. She's proved her longevity and staying power unlike Gaga (who is getting outsold 2:1 by her peer Katy Perry and an ex Disney star)
"Applause" is a hit by definition, but it's not strong enough to lead off the album. It didn't really provide much buzz, and that's why first week predictions are pretty conservative right now. I bet her label is hoping for something bigger with "Venus."
Britney can afford to flop right now. She's proved her longevity and staying power unlike Gaga (who is getting outsold 2:1 by her peer Katy Perry and an ex Disney star)
shall we compare Gaga's lead single from her third album to Knee's?