Oh I see. The new multiplier is for every 15 downloads=1 Hot 100 Point as opposed to 10 downloads=1 Hot 100 point right? So basically multiplying by 2/3 now instead of 1. So here's my breakdown
Sales
So is Gangnam is estimated to sell 300,000 and OMN is estimated to sell 200,0000, the difference would be 100,000 and that multiplied by 2/3 should be about 66 points.
So GS would be ahead by about 66.6 points
Airplay
As for airplay, Billboard has said these totals in terms of millions of impressions
4Days ago
GS - 15
OMN - 43
Difference - 28
3 Days ago
GS - 20
OMN - 53
Difference - 33
2 Days ago
GS - 27
OMN - 69
Difference - 42
1 Day Ago
GS - 34
OMN - 87
Difference - 53
Today?
GS - ?
OMN - ?
Difference - ?
Today seems to be the final day for airplay for the next chart. In the last three days OMN has increased by about 10 million.
So OMN would be ahead in airplay by about 63 points if we assume the pattern continued of 10 more points for its final day
Streaming
This is what it really comes down to.
Assuming what I typed is kind of correct or close to it
Gangnam should be ahead a bit in sales at around 66 points
OMN should be ahead in airplay about 63 points.
Last week OMN had 775,000 streams for #1, while GS had 616,000 streams to be #9.
If we're assuming streams are multiplied by 1/10000, that's 77.5 for OMN and GS had 61.6 last week, which was a sizeable gap of around 16 points
It seems like Psy is #1 this week on Spotify. Assuming that also leads to a #1 on On Demand Songs, I think Psy might have it? It depends on the margin too, but seeing as how the song has made a huge leap from 43-9, it makes sense for another big leap, I think?
Last week, fun. had 767,000 streams. Maroon 5 had 775000 So the difference between it and Maroon 5 was like about 1 point? (77.5 vs 76.7)
Im guessing maybe this week, we could see something similar, like Psy at #1 barely edging Maroon 5.
So Psy should have the slight edge here by maybe about 1 point?
Summary
So in conclusion, maybe it's like this
(Putting Psy as Positive Points and OMN as Negative Points)
Sales = + 66
Streaming = +1
For GS
Airplay= -63
for OMN
67-63=4
Which is positive, which means Psy could barely edge out?
Hope this isn't confusing
But I think it could still happen this week? I hope
Holy sh*t!!
