Also, with the news that
Trump is low with Asian Americans, we can use the RealClearPolitics
demographic calculator to look at possible results. If we djust their numbers to about 75-25 Democratic; Hispanic numbers to 78-22 Democrat; and African American to 95-5 Democrat without even touching white voters from the 2012 numbers, and then increase Hispanic turnout to about 55 thanks to Trump, we can estimate a decent victory for Hillary.
And as we know, demographics have been the best determinant of how the primaries have played out. If Hillary has the demographic advantage, she will win. Trump will need 65%+ of whites to counteract the Democratic gains in other ethnic and racial groups; to put that in perspective, Romney only got 60.2%.
If by some miracle Hillary reduces Trump to 55% of whites - as feasible as Trump getting 65% so not out of the question! - the race becomes a blowout. 57.5% Clinton, 42.5% Trump not accounting for third parties, and electorally 433 to 105.
Most importantly... if she does better than Obama with white Americans and does a little better with minorities, and those minorities have higher turnout: we flip Texas.
