We're talking about the institution that awarded 1989 over TPAB? Of course Adele's going to win.
I love Adele but 25 is not worthy of winning. It's much weaker than 21. The entire back half of the album after River Lea is some of the most mediocre work she's ever put her name to.
Lemonade is Beyonce at her most artistically powerfully. In a just world, it'll be between her and David Bowie for the final award.