Current Democratic Primary Projections, Through Super Tuesday
SUMMARY: Okay, so from current RCP polling (using their average when present, and the most recent poll when the average is not present, adjusting to 100 for undecideds), here's what the next three weeks looks like going in. We're missing polling data from American Samoa, Alabama, Democrats Abroad, and Vermont, so the picture is incomplete but substantial. 966 pledged delegates are up for grabs, and 170 superdelegates.
Based on current projections from only polled states - which
will change -
Hillary Clinton walks away with 598 + 102 =
700, and
Bernie Sanders with 275 + 3 =
278.
The estimated
totals of pledged delegates and superdelegates on March 2nd will be as follows:
Hillary Clinton, 1044 (630 + 414)
Bernie Sanders, 323 (311 + 12)
Raw Text DataPOPULAR VOTE
Date State Clinton Sanders Delegates
2/20/2016 Nevada 0.56886 0.43114 35
2/27/2016 South Carolina 0.70652 0.29348 53
3/1/2016 Abroad 0.00000 0.00000 13
3/1/2016 Alabama 0.00000 0.00000 53
3/1/2016 American Samoa 0.00000 0.00000 6
3/1/2016 Arkansas 0.69512 0.30488 32
3/1/2016 Colorado 0.68142 0.29204 66
3/1/2016 Georgia 0.74118 0.25882 102
3/1/2016 Massachusetts 0.65318 0.31214 91
3/1/2016 Minnesota 0.70238 0.29762 77
3/1/2016 Oklahoma 0.65891 0.34109 38
3/1/2016 Tennessee 0.63158 0.36842 67
3/1/2016 Texas 0.67773 0.32227 222
3/1/2016 Vermont 0.00000 0.00000 16
3/1/2016 Virginia 0.70000 0.30000 95
DELEGATES
State Clinton ClintonSuper Sanders SandersSuper
Iowa 23 6 21 0
New Hampshire 9 6 15 0
Nevada 20 3 15 1
South Carolina 37 3 16 0
Abroad 0 1 0 0
Alabama 0 5 0 0
American Samoa 0 0 0 0
Arkansas 22 5 10 0
Colorado 45 9 19 0
Georgia 76 11 26 0
Massachusetts 59 16 28 0
Minnesota 54 10 23 0
Oklahoma 25 0 13 0
Tennessee 42 6 25 0
Texas 150 16 72 0
Vermont 0 4 0 2
Virginia 67 13 29 0
My current projections for the rest of the states for which we have data will be updated and posted tonight. My official prediction at this point, despite the lack of quite a lot of polling data so far, is that
Hillary Clinton will definitively win the nomination (cross 2381 delegates) with Pennsylvania's vote on April 26th. [note: other states vote that day but cap at under a hundred delegates to Penn's 189]
. Wish I could do this but that's not my major hehe. Anyways you say she *could* cross it by my primary? 
. He deserved the booing
