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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by foxaylove
I know, you also have the expenses of paid campaign staff and such, but broadcasting is normally a good indication on the spending of a campaign. They were all in for Iowa. I don't think by losing so close, it was a TKO for Bernie. Being that he kept it close, he allowed himself to stay in a positive light in the mainstream media, which is key to his campaign. The more they're talking about him, the less he has to spend money to compensate for that. From November - January, Bernie had to outspend Hillary because he wasn't getting enough media exposure due to Donald Trump and all his ridiculousness. It was a blessing in disguise for Hillary's camp, rather they like to admit it or not. Had he lose by a good margin, the media would've pounced and that would've had a trickle down effect.
Bernie will Get New Hampshire and make a viable play at Nevada, which I think will be a 5 point differential. South Carolina will be a double digit win for Hillary and then the SEC/ACC primary that is known as "Super Tuesday" arrives. She'll storm the south, maybe not take all, but majority is a given. Bernie should work on the Midwest states like Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, etc. They're states with great delegate counts and a market he can compete in that cater towards his political strengths.
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Yep. If he wants to win he'll have to be competitive in the Midwest and the rest of the northeast/middle states. Don't know if he'll win Minnesota though. They just released a poll like last week (or two weeks ago) with a huge Clinton lead, similar to SC
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha.
Do Hillary supporters seriously think that winning by .4% against a fringe candidate is good or are they trolling?
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Yeah it is waaayy better than losing by even .1% so it's quite a relief
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Adonis
Barack Obama is the only Pres who has won Iowa primaries and won the election. Iowa usually picks fringe candidates like Ted Cruz or Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee.
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True, but it's not like Barack Obama won Iowa and the presidency back in the 60s. It just happened in 2008 and 2012. That, and because Iowa was one of 7-8 states with a disproportionally high liberal count and low diversity count. It was a miracle she even won here. It proved the momentum he had coming in was stopped. Also, 180K people caucused which was super high and Clinton still staved off the challenge (albeit barely)
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha.
Do Hillary supporters seriously think that winning by .4% against a fringe candidate is good or are they trolling?
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Yes, actually! Would she or her supporters like a bigger win? That's a given. You have to remember the demographic makeup of Iowa Democrats. It's been said, over and over and over again. States like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Maine are some of the whitest states in the country. The democrats in those states are far left liberals. When you get to the upcoming southern states, the population of democratic party shifts to blacks. Populism isn't a key issue among moderate southern democrats. It's just not. Criminal Justice reform, Education, National Security, race relations, and job growth.
Sanders' strength and comfort is beating into the heads of his supporters, income inequality. He has to get out of that confined bubble and wear multiple hats. He has the ability to really sell the BLM movement and such, but he's been too focused in other states talking about Wall Street and big banks. He has too much ground to make up from now to March 1st to make a big difference. I think he needs to turn his attention to the midwest to offset the southern primaries. If he doesn't have a great showing there, it'll be all but an inevitable Clinton nomination.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by Adonis
Barack Obama is the only Pres who has won Iowa primaries and won the election. Iowa usually picks fringe candidates like Ted Cruz or Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee.
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Pretty much. The swing states in the general election I care about the most are Ohio and Florida. Those states are the ones that wins you the presidency.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by foxaylove
Pretty much. The swing states in the general election I care about the most are Ohio and Florida. Those states are the ones that wins you the presidency.
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What about Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, and Colorado?
Potential swing states too. But Barack I think will be stronger than either of these two candidates in those states. His appeal was so good, especially in 2008. He even won Indiana and split the electorates in Nebraska 
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
What about Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, and Colorado?
Potential swing states too. But Barack I think will be stronger than either of these two candidates in those states. His appeal was so good, especially in 2008. He even won Indiana and split the electorates in Nebraska |
Those are the traditional swing states and naturally you would want VA and CO out of those four, but the clear pattern of general election winner comes from Ohio and Florida. Normally, those two are a good indication of how the Dems can offset the bible state electoral college tally the GOP will swoop up and take. 2008 was a clear blowout of mass proportion for President Obama. I'm still in aww of what he accomplished and did.
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Member Since: 11/27/2010
Posts: 9,806
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
True, but it's not like Barack Obama won Iowa and the presidency back in the 60s. It just happened in 2008 and 2012. That, and because Iowa was one of 7-8 states with a disproportionally high liberal count and low diversity count. It was a miracle she even won here. It proved the momentum he had coming in was stopped. Also, 180K people caucused which was super high and Clinton still staved off the challenge (albeit barely)
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Um thats the point I was making. Iowa is very polarized with its politics. They tend to pick the right most candidates and the left most candidates in primaries. By the time other states get a say, they are left to clean up the scraps.
They need to get rid of this drawn out process and simply do national primaries and those who register above a certain percentage get to go on nationally,..and get rid of the electoral college. 1 vote one person. No chance of winning without the votes.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Adonis
Um thats the point I was making. Iowa is very polarized with its politics. They tend to pick the right most candidates and the left most candidates in primaries. By the time other states get a say, they are left to clean up the scraps.
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Oh oops. Sorry
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
I'm going to wait to update the title until the final Polk and Iowa County counts are finished.
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Andy McGuire, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, called the race for Clinton in the closest race in Iowa's history
You can change it now if you'd like (or you can wait)
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 11,012
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha.
Do Hillary supporters seriously think that winning by .4% against a fringe candidate is good or are they trolling?
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I'd say it's brilliant considering she only came 3rd in 2008 and her husband never won Iowa 
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
Andy McGuire, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, called the race for Clinton in the closest race in Iowa's history
You can change it now if you'd like (or you can wait)
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It doesn't get more official than that. He, above anyone else would have the final results. Good job to both camps on a great showing.
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Still sad about O'Malley dropping out 
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Banned
Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 4,477
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
Still sad about O'Malley dropping out |
i feel so bad for him  he was apparently 1 mil in debt
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Member Since: 10/2/2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
Were you the one who predicted a Cruz win here? Who do you see grabbing the nom?  |
I've always said from Day 1 of this thread that if Bush imploded it'd be between Walker, Cruz, and Rubio.
Bush stunned everyone with his drastic disintegration, the Koch Bros golden child Walker stunned everyone with his departure, and Trump sucked all the media oxygen out of the room. Now here we are.
I've been cynical about the Republican electorate picking a Tea Party Cuban as far as Rubio is concerned but the Cruz backlash has grown incredibly strong in the past month within the Republican electorate.
So, as of now, I think it'll be Rubio v. Clinton.
If, with that result, pissed Bernie supporters stay home in November, she'll have an immensely difficult fight on her hands.
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Member Since: 10/2/2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
I'm going to wait to update the title until the final Polk and Iowa County counts are finished.
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Fine by me 
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Iowa is TAILOR MADE for Bernie and he still couldn't win it. The Democratic race will be over after South Carolina.
As for Republicans, Rubio gave the greatest 3rd place victory speech of all time.  But he has firmly cemented himself as the establishment choice. I also believe Rubio vs. Hillary will be the general election matchup. I still give Hillary the edge, but that's her toughest possible opponent.
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Jeb Bush is officially in golfing season. What an implosion. 
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Espresso
So, as of now, I think it'll be Rubio v. Clinton.
If, with that result, pissed Bernie supporters stay home in November, she'll have an immensely difficult fight on her hands.
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I really hope the Bernsters wouldn't do that. A "Revolution or bust" mentality isn't going to solve anything. Hopefully his supporters will realize that Hillary, as much as they dislike her ties to corporate America, is a way better option than any Republican.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Wonder where O'Malley will go now. I think VP is out of the question, he's gotten into one too many verbal spats with either candidate for that to be possible. Also his low Iowa numbers don't bode well for him.
Maybe a minor cabinet position? Democratic Party chair? I'm sure he'll go for the nom again in 4/8 years time.
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